Post AwlNiYNJsQWRUE0ysS by llewelly@sauropods.win
(DIR) More posts by llewelly@sauropods.win
(DIR) Post #AwlDMYwU5XoJKiL1VY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:25:44Z
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Our president just fired the Labor Secretary because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is. He did not explain WHY he thought the report was incorrect. Naturally many people are now saying we won't be able to trust future reports. To me, faking such numbers seems rather difficult.Dr. Reich, @rbreich as a former Secretary of Labor and guy who knows about The Economy can you tells us what might be tell-tale signs of a "Fake Jobs Report" ?
(DIR) Post #AwlDRiX1rXaSWQtDG4 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:26:40Z
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@rbreich I think some people are also alarmed by the "revisions" to numbers in previous months. I remember this always happening in previous reports but these revisions have been very large. What are some reasons you might need to make a big revision?
(DIR) Post #AwlDd5ktrEa5jbnkG0 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:28:40Z
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@Nazani @rbreich The finance guys I know use those numbers in their models and they really need them to be based on reality or the models won't work. Fake numbers will break SO MANY things.
(DIR) Post #AwlDeVmiZCK6kjKRJA by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
2025-08-02T13:28:57Z
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@futurebird @rbreich A note:The Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired by Trump for not lying for him.The Labor Secretary is apparently okay with that.
(DIR) Post #AwlDfNwVD2EgiiK13Y by jmax@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T13:28:59Z
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@futurebird @rbreich You're making the incorrect assumption that they care about getting caught.
(DIR) Post #AwlDkXFK2vpn1Sa3BA by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:30:04Z
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@michael_w_busch @rbreich But how could you lie about something that's been done the same way for decades? I mean, I guess I can think of ways but come on.
(DIR) Post #AwlDxreNUmfg4MeiuW by adriano@lile.cl
2025-08-02T13:32:25Z
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@futurebird @Nazani @rbreich a decade or so ago the Kirchner admin in Argentina closed the INDEC, the national bureau of statistics. And things… kept going. Private entities published data or produced them but didn’t publish, people kinda guessed…
(DIR) Post #AwlE5XbJvF3YCit0EK by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:33:52Z
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@michael_w_busch I keep thinking about that thing where Trump would change how much he thought his business was worth based on "his feelings at the time" and I assume he thinks numbers aren't connected to anything and you can just say any number you want. I mean when he wants a number to be large each time he says it, it grows exponentially*.*I have the sudden urge to do a regression on "trump numbers" and find out exactly how they tend to grow and warp over time...
(DIR) Post #AwlEmkxy6dzI6l5PyC by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
2025-08-02T13:41:38Z
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@futurebird @rbreich I remember when Trump tried to make the head of the weather service lie about where a hurricane was going.No lie is too blatant.
(DIR) Post #AwlFTv8o9Ugs7IjrO4 by PizzaDemon@mastodon.online
2025-08-02T13:49:26Z
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@futurebird fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics which is supposed to be non partisan. The labor secretary serves at the pleasure of the president. She is a one-term congressional rep from the Portland suburbs who lost her reelection bid.
(DIR) Post #AwlFXRymW5nQpcjRfE by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T13:50:07Z
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@PizzaDemon ooh thanks
(DIR) Post #AwlGlb1Vmu7EtDJmrI by helvick@mastodon.ie
2025-08-02T14:03:49Z
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@futurebird @michael_w_busch This comment of his says everything you need to know about his relationship with how numbers actually work. “We're going to get the drug prices down ... 1000%, 600%, 500%, 1500%, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable" How this man ever ran a business is beyond me.
(DIR) Post #AwlGvrLhwaAeQ1etdY by adriano@lile.cl
2025-08-02T13:44:09Z
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@Nazani sorry. I understand that my toot can be read as “eh”, but what I meant was “you’d be surprised at how people will adjust to utter disaster”. Or not, after these years.
(DIR) Post #AwlGvsYVSU0EA0edE0 by adriano@lile.cl
2025-08-02T13:46:01Z
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@Nazani if the US govt stops publishing numbers that can be trusted, some entity or entities will sorta step up to fill the void. State agencies, universities, grifters… Not as well. It will be very bad.
(DIR) Post #AwlGvtPgGmXMovX66i by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:05:35Z
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@adriano @Nazani "Sorta"Everyone Disliked That(Some deep very nerdy part of me is offended on an elemental level by the notion of numbers with a large data set over many years, that I have used many times, being messed with. It's like seeing a cathedral torn down. A library burned. The monumental statues of civilization firebombed... )
(DIR) Post #AwlGz7PwetaL7fC8Ho by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:06:19Z
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@helvick @michael_w_busch But I was so excited to get a check when I picked up my pills. Are you telling me that's not gonna happen?
(DIR) Post #AwlHFHRh8qM6rFig7s by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:09:14Z
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@adriano @Nazani You know? I have been struggling to understand the despair from some liberals about what he's been doing to the Whitehouse. Yes, it's ugly, but the things people like about that building are just because "It Has Always Been That Way" ... and Carter put solar panels on it once and I thought that seemed cool and want them back. But the feeling about the data? it's rather like what White House History people are feeling. I will be more understanding now.
(DIR) Post #AwlHgkegeJdnGhtbJQ by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:14:12Z
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@adriano @Nazani Normally I think of the White House as the plantation-house-looking-proto-mc-massion.I just don't like it very much.
(DIR) Post #AwlHlu9Cmib49jcyfY by phaedral@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T14:15:05Z
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@futurebird @adriano @Nazani Despair? ICE has a bigger budget than the Marines and operates effectively as Trump's secret police. Unprecedented. Despair.
(DIR) Post #AwlHmoP5cqZqdDUSCe by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:15:10Z
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@Doreen32128 @adriano @Nazani The American Flag drains are kind of hilarious. I hope they keep those ... "never forget" and all that.
(DIR) Post #AwlHwRDifxD1cplIrg by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:17:00Z
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@phaedral @adriano @Nazani Yes. That is obviously more important than statistics or architecture. We are doing all the things one would do before ethnic cleansing. All of the steps and even the budget. I wish I could explain it away. But that is where this is going.
(DIR) Post #AwlI8cHNNtk3OoHNsu by paninid@mastodon.world
2025-08-02T14:19:10Z
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@futurebird @adriano @Nazani Just gonna leave this here.
(DIR) Post #AwlIR0QgKkYNVnOuf2 by Lyle@cville.online
2025-08-02T14:22:32Z
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@futurebird Just ask the worst chatbot you can find to write a positive jobs numbers report with some convincing looking references and quotes and paste it on social
(DIR) Post #AwlIRsNhk2G2qCQIW8 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:22:37Z
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@Doreen32128 @adriano @Nazani Ah yes, the stars are anti-slip treading. And the powerful visitors will trample the flag under their expensive shoes and they tip their drinks to let them run away between the bleached-white bars of our flag. Very elegant. It speaks to me. I love architecture.
(DIR) Post #AwlIX7zt6quUijmsee by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T14:23:40Z
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@Lyle Or even the best chatbot, as there isn't much difference.
(DIR) Post #AwlIzqDwGlnJzm3EgK by Nicovel0@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T14:28:46Z
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@futurebird @Doreen32128 @adriano @Nazani proper respect to the flag is turning it into a sewer? Ok then
(DIR) Post #AwlJ5siLvGLZSP9o0m by thedansimonson@lingo.lol
2025-08-02T14:29:54Z
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@futurebird @Doreen32128 @adriano @Nazani thinking about those guys who wear American flag shorts, always farting on the flag
(DIR) Post #AwlJchaaJ6IKVcApvs by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2025-08-02T14:35:49Z
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@futurebird I tend to think that most numbers are misused. Like one of the worst things for the American economy has been people using NYSE/NASDAQ data to judge it. The way inflation is calculated is one of the prime drivers of the plastics crisis IMHO. High property prices create homelessness & contribute to climate change & sprawl because they put the value on the number not the use. I'm sure there's people who use some of this stuff well, but for most people most of the time these kinds of data are more misleading than useful.@rbreich
(DIR) Post #AwlLkIn6abFFp9mXhY by Boerps@nrw.social
2025-08-02T14:59:38Z
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@futurebird @rbreich Not faking. Not publishing is the goal.
(DIR) Post #AwlLyfqneQcJOdMZf6 by Kathmandu@stranger.social
2025-08-02T15:02:12Z
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@futurebird When the economy is holding steady, the jobs numbers only need small revisions. When the economy is going up or down, the model lags, so the revisions when actual data comes in are bigger.Larger revisions are a sign that the economy is going up or down faster.
(DIR) Post #AwlNiYNJsQWRUE0ysS by llewelly@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T15:21:45Z
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@futurebird @adriano @Nazani the industry that called itself "big data" set its sights on destroying reliable data. They made a deal with the Crystaline Entity and now everyone will suffer.
(DIR) Post #AwlOzKSqwww5DiAMZU by jhavok@mstdn.party
2025-08-02T15:35:57Z
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@futurebird @Nazani @rbreich PhDs have been earned finding ways to get around countries that conceal their numbers. They'll just have to apply the methods to the US.
(DIR) Post #AwlQBbB0jvsGTuEday by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T15:49:27Z
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@jhavok @Nazani Where did this happen and how could I read about it?
(DIR) Post #AwlS0Cxyc21w7Lpoci by jhavok@mstdn.party
2025-08-02T16:09:44Z
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@futurebird @Nazani It's referred to as the Blue Book, Fitch Ratings publishes it (don't know if it's the only one). I had a neighbor in business school getting his PhD by figuring out and testing proxy numbers for the official ones. There were a lot of different numbers that could be accessed that reflected the reality on the ground vs official publications. One that I recall is railroad freight schedules, as these track internal manufacturing very closely. I love getting nerds to talk...
(DIR) Post #AwlT2lQNZKfTWLu0Vk by Greengordon@spore.social
2025-08-02T16:21:17Z
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@futurebird @rbreich Someone suggested that the #DOGE firings may have made data collection and analysis more difficult..."What are some reasons you might need to make a big revision?"
(DIR) Post #AwlUvqkvY3H7wALPqC by BagOfNails@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T16:06:04Z
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@Kathmandu @futurebird What is the source of the Job Report numbers? Is it the state job reports or is it some sort of cross country Federal assessment? Be interesting to find out. Based on TACO Turd's nose dive into the National Reporting I would think it would be a system he can disguise the real numbers so as to meet his political wishes.
(DIR) Post #AwlUvzNVUUtAg8SL5M by btrinen@social.seattle.wa.us
2025-08-02T16:40:46Z
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@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
(DIR) Post #AwlUwF74zLFtTotRhY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T16:42:40Z
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu Thank you for helping me decide what to read first. This will save so much time. I was overwhelmed and didn't know where to start understanding this.
(DIR) Post #AwlVFE4d4reFl3nbn6 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T16:46:05Z
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu This page has the good stuff:https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jltdef.htm
(DIR) Post #AwlVLNYajQzyuJkPtA by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T16:47:12Z
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu "job openings" seems like one of the softer parts of this data.
(DIR) Post #AwlZ1PeRdQEVQbDirI by heartshadows@toot.community
2025-08-02T17:28:23Z
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@futurebird @rbreich easy as hell you change the number and brainless maga will take them as true.
(DIR) Post #AwlZtcP4RHyycCsP1E by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-08-02T17:38:10Z
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@futurebird @rbreich Four things.Management is about performative reinforcement of social consensus reality. Quantified analysis is frequently in conflict with the SCR; participating in quantified analysis is frequently seen as impossibly expensive because of this.The signalling system is not uniform; information moves erratically and inconsistently. A report intended to identify state at a point in time needs updating as information arrives. (E.g., excess death rates.)
(DIR) Post #AwlaWVuIWgXFlF1svI by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-08-02T17:45:13Z
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@futurebird @btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu "job openings" are actively gamed in several ways.
(DIR) Post #AwldMomRngGTGKQSn2 by wollman@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T18:09:01Z
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird There are two surveys, known as the "household survey" and the "establishment survey". The household survey asks people if they have a job (and if so, how many hours they are working, or if not whether they are looking for one); the establishment survey asks employers how many employees they have. These methods often disagree — and also disagree with official state-based unemployment figures.
(DIR) Post #AwldMtZVzBtI7fPhpI by wollman@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T18:12:23Z
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird Oh, and they're always limited to "non-farm payrolls" because it's really hard to get reliable data from farms.
(DIR) Post #AwldacgLZw0NnI9g7k by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T18:19:36Z
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@wollman @btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu That's really too bad as I imagine that things may be unstable in that sector because of ICE. How many people have just left rather that wait to be chased out?
(DIR) Post #AwliYwi4dzmN6JyymW by wollman@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T19:15:17Z
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@futurebird @btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu It's not really possible to do a reliable monthly survey of workers when they have no fixed abode and move from farm to farm every few weeks following the harvest.