Post Awk2yM1fGaNrcjcRf6 by timo21@mastodon.sdf.org
(DIR) More posts by timo21@mastodon.sdf.org
(DIR) Post #Awk1hzttezdEPqce5w by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-01T23:40:26Z
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The thing about a jobs report is you can verify that data. You can check if it is correct. If, a president suspected that an evil Labor Department employee was making the numbers worse it shouldn't be hard to show, you know, evidence of this. It's not a subjective report. It's based on social security and hard numbers.So, if you fire the person the same day the report comes out without even pretending to debunk it? That's just political emotion-based reasoning.
(DIR) Post #Awk1wrUbCfESgNsSfY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-01T23:43:08Z
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As for "now we can't trust the numbers anymore" --probably. I'd be scared to put out a bad report if I had that job, however.We should also be able to show where the report detaches from reality. The real issue is that we can all see that nobody is hiring. Fake good reports can only glaze over so much.
(DIR) Post #Awk2G4jgBnxzG35p1k by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-01T23:46:33Z
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The stock market and Fed are treating this report like it's real. Interesting.
(DIR) Post #Awk2PiPq1tPsvgPQ7k by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-01T23:48:18Z
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2+2=5"The Russian Army is well supplied and ready to stage a protracted invasion without any problems"It's NUMBERS
(DIR) Post #Awk2Y6HJC3ZJFoPx1U by richpuchalsky@mastodon.social
2025-08-01T23:49:49Z
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@futurebird I don't understand what you mean here. Of course the data are now bad. More importantly, they are now impossible to check. The report can not be based on "social security and hard numbers" when the organization counting those numbers is itself corrupted."we can all see that no one is hiring" can we? This becomes a contest of anecdotes.
(DIR) Post #Awk2m8ydxJAfg9NqM4 by wcbdata@vis.social
2025-08-01T23:52:20Z
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@futurebird I'm not sure that its the report so much as the fact that the regime just fired the head of the statistical agency responsible for it because they didn't like it. In a nutshell, this means that there is no such thing as a reliable national statistic from here on out.
(DIR) Post #Awk2yM1fGaNrcjcRf6 by timo21@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-08-01T23:53:53Z
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@futurebird There are a lot of MAGA complicit elites, it seems. So much for an intelligent elite class. 🤢
(DIR) Post #Awk3RjnpwXvJlTA848 by LPerry2@mastodon.social
2025-08-01T23:59:52Z
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@futurebird Exactly! I talk to friends who say, over and over again, "My company has a hiring freeze." And that's just a holding action. Layoffs are the next step, and they're coming.
(DIR) Post #Awk3bCDzdn2MWHuIC0 by philsplace@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-08-02T00:01:31Z
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@futurebird Mister market will have quite a fit if those numbers don’t smell right.I have popcorn ready for just that case.
(DIR) Post #Awk4qcdpo1mekQuhsW by kyhwana@social.furry.nz
2025-08-02T00:15:15Z
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@futurebird aka petty dictator shit
(DIR) Post #Awk6QSdCbJaa55Gr44 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T00:33:17Z
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@richpuchalsky If the count for SS enrollment and payments is bad it is all over. I would think this would be very hard data to mess with since it's very public and has a deep history.But, now you are freaking me out and I want to see who is monitoring that data independently. I knew of at least one non-profit that did to track poverty... hmm.
(DIR) Post #Awk6dwjpyVdJDknxTM by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T00:35:44Z
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I expect this position will be filled by someone with no experience or history working with government stats. Because anyone with experience knows that unless the jobs numbers really improve they will be in an impossible place. Trying to fake up a jobs report. I don't think it will go well? Not if it's more than a little nudge. That is why the old numbers had to be revised. People were starting to talk about how they didn't match.
(DIR) Post #Awk6uOd230FuM1SvTc by richpuchalsky@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T00:38:38Z
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@futurebird Many, many organizations are monitoring social security data or interested in keeping it accurate. But there is really nothing one can do against bare-faced lying and no rule of law. It's like... governmental stats are not physical qualities that can be observed.Or with other databases there's a collection problem, like what will happen to the Census when people learn that it is starting to be used to target respondents.
(DIR) Post #Awk6y0S7sId2X45NZo by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T00:39:21Z
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There are so many organizations with all kinds of agendas that pour over these numbers ... it's kind of like peer review in a way.
(DIR) Post #Awk7C9u7Wz7TtqvcTA by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T00:41:54Z
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I guess what they could do is change the number they release. From "jobs added" to "freedom jobs added" and have a different way of adding them up (count every job three times or whatever)But then all the organizations that use the data for historical comparisons will be mad and want the old numbers. But maybe that's what we'll get. "Newspeak Jobs Total" It's day one of history.
(DIR) Post #Awk7ZgzChP69A7WmS8 by dawngreeter@dice.camp
2025-08-02T00:46:07Z
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@futurebird I suspect what is coming is neo-Lysenkoism. Look, tariffs are causing job growth (he says, pointing at a historically high unemployment). With sufficient control over the media, this message can stand unchecked even while people starve.It is really Stalin all over again. A hundred years after resounding catastrophe that was Socialism in One Country, we have Capitalism in One Country.
(DIR) Post #Awk7pFcCER52uDBX4C by richpuchalsky@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T00:48:58Z
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@futurebird Or there's always the Erdogan solution. Fire the stats agency head and get one who will either give the numbers you want or they just stop coming out.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-fires-statistics-chief-after-record-inflation-11643456492
(DIR) Post #Awk8TAi7sxQRHJziQS by victorvonvortex@mastodon.social
2025-08-02T00:56:03Z
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@futurebird Not sure who did this.
(DIR) Post #Awk8VcvrvejZNxapwu by stevenaleach@sigmoid.social
2025-08-02T00:56:33Z
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@futurebird It seems very much like the goal is to break the concept of objective reality as described here: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/russia-putin-revolutionizing-information-warfare/379880/
(DIR) Post #Awk8gyzQGDsgyqfcEC by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T00:58:41Z
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Investment bankers, the most precious Americans, love the jobs report. They use it to do their projections and make money. Well the honest(er) ones do.
(DIR) Post #Awk90io48g4ma4lpSa by TerryHancock@realsocial.life
2025-08-02T01:02:10Z
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@futurebird Isn't most of the skullduggery to do with the denominator -- e.g. how people are seeking jobs, how many are "able bodied", etc. There's a lot of definitions to be dishonest about -- and then make numbers that don't compare.
(DIR) Post #Awk9A8Se7pweklEy9Y by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-08-02T01:03:57Z
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@TerryHancock Unemployment numbers are much much more fuzzy. But "new jobs added" isn't. Because for most jobs you need to file paperwork for social security. (even if you don't pay into it because it's part time)
(DIR) Post #AwkGVVgffJiaY3wKEi by burnoutqueen@todon.nl
2025-08-02T02:26:15Z
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@futurebird I know. I can't get hired
(DIR) Post #AwkgZpeTycBUQzdajo by tshirtman@mas.to
2025-08-02T07:18:19Z
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@futurebird as i see people point out all the time about the russian numbers, you can fake a number, but then you have to fake the other numbers that need to be consistent with it, and now you have to fake all the numbers, and it's really hard to make that consistently, and even more without having simple observations of reality wildly contradict some of the numbers you put out.Like, ok, jobs are not easy to confirm, but the price of things? Anyone can check.