Post AvrGOLFuthTUXNHqcq by clacke@libranet.de
(DIR) More posts by clacke@libranet.de
(DIR) Post #AvnExMsds82RAe8Pei by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T14:05:10Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
New SpaceX report on Starlink conjunctions and deorbits (a.k.a. dumping tons of metal/plastic/solar panels/computers into the upper atmosphere) https://www.scribd.com/document/883045105/SpaceX-Gen1-Gen2-Semi-Annual-Report-7-1-25Scariest part:472 Starlinks were burned up in the atmosphere in Dec-May. Assuming each satellite is 800kg, and 50% aluminum by mass, that's 1 ton of aluminum PER DAY. The natural infall rate of aluminum from meteoroids is 0.3 tons per day. Starlink has been ~3x that, for the last 6 months.
(DIR) Post #AvnExTI22duf383m40 by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T14:07:28Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Kessler Syndrome update:They report 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers across the whole constellation in Dec-May. That's about one maneuver every 2 minutes.Every 2 minutes there's a chance for a mistake that would lead to a very bad day in orbit. And as this paper shows (with Dr. Kessler himself as a co-author!), a very bad day at that altitude would lead to a runaway collisional cascade. No more satellites at that altitude! https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf
(DIR) Post #AvnExUKCC5EoG8514i by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T14:10:54Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
SpaceX spends a lot of time saying how safe they are with their threshhold for collision avoidance maneuvers, which is great. But they HAVE to be! With those densities, high collision probability conjunctions happen many times per day. It is impressive that they have been operating perfectly, but how long do they think they can keep this up with zero mistakes?And what if all the Starlinks are not all fully burning up as they claim? That's a lot of stuff hitting the ground...
(DIR) Post #AvnExXd5uH8aVbweRs by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T14:15:49Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Coincidentally, this great article just came out (that I got interviewed for) that really nicely summarizes the issues in orbit: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/with-space-junk-on-the-rise-is-a-catastrophic-event-inevitable-180986907/
(DIR) Post #AvnExfAJt8sFsgXmi0 by guenterhack@chaos.social
2025-07-03T14:13:13Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@sundogplanets Is this the way how they establish a first-mover low-orbit communications satellite monopoly? They fill the zone with satellites so that no competitor can emerge?
(DIR) Post #AvpsftDlHCzekA9Zku by leberschnitzel@existiert.ch
2025-07-03T15:18:58Z
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@sundogplanets I thought that starlinks are much lighter, I'm shocked that the Gen2 weight increased that much 😳
(DIR) Post #AvpsfuidhtHrODbkWW by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T16:25:20Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@leberschnitzel They are very sketchy about releasing numbers. The Gen2 numbers I've seen are 1250 kg each.
(DIR) Post #AvpsurH2nX1L34pIi8 by Simplicator@federate.social
2025-07-03T17:00:08Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@sundogplanets Just found out that the 3 NASA WB-57 aircraft often carry a cosmic dust collector on their high-altitude missions. Think satellite debris would be detectable in it soon?
(DIR) Post #AvptT0jy6l2eFpdnCy by jevidl@ono-sendai.jevidl.net
2025-07-04T00:13:52Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@sundogplanets “And they absolutely had this mentality of, ‘You just burn it up in the atmosphere and it’s gone. It’s fine, right?’ That’s really how they think about it.”I know this is true. I know that *a lot* of people just think it disappears. It does nothing to make it easier for me to understand. Like, conservation of mass, people! 😫
(DIR) Post #AvpuGCYOyU2v5Bgccq by PizzaDemon@mastodon.online
2025-07-03T17:22:56Z
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@sundogplanets a) how does this compare with baseline other satellites without Star Link and previous generations like iridium?B) so starlink could theoretically offload the expense of running its own collision avoidance unit to some world government entity because the risk is shared even though the gain is not. Like doing now what would happen if they were to go bankrupt and cease operations
(DIR) Post #AvpuGDzNdfDjX9JgJc by clacke@libranet.de
2025-07-05T21:52:16Z
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@PizzaDemon In one month, StarLink deorbits as many satellites as Iridium ever had simultaneously operational. In two months, as many satellites as Iridium ever sent up.The vast majority of satellites up there are StarLink. Other objects just aren't relevant in comparison.The main threat to StarLink is StarLink, and the main benefactor of StarLink's collision avoidance is StarLink. But if it fails, we all suffer.@sundogplanets
(DIR) Post #AvqJnedA6X7uZUxf0q by sundogplanets@mastodon.social
2025-07-05T22:08:55Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@clacke @PizzaDemon All true
(DIR) Post #AvrGOK4tHD3ost7Wng by jakobpunkt@mastodon.social
2025-07-03T23:07:17Z
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@sundogplanets Is that bad? I don't have a sense of what excess aluminum in the atmosphere will do.
(DIR) Post #AvrGOLFuthTUXNHqcq by clacke@libranet.de
2025-07-06T13:34:24Z
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@jakobpunkt "Satellite Mega Constellations Could Jeopardize Ozone-Hole Recovery"scientificamerican.com/article…@sundogplanets
(DIR) Post #Ay5brbYek9GoHhF2US by clacke@libranet.de
2025-09-11T07:25:48Z
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@datum I think you're probably right about the Perseids being a threat to dense constellations.Now that we've passed the Perseid peak, I'm curious of the outcome, and looked around to see if there are any articles reporting on it. So far I haven't seen any.