Post AvUt6OgfLDYHmMnaoy by bransonturner@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by bransonturner@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AvUrQmgBeG8m4bAVCS by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:12:32Z
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Why the #US’ giant bunker-busting bombs may have failed to reach their #nuclear targets in #IranThey depicted America's #BunkerBuster bomb, the #MassiveOrdnancePenetrator, or #GBU57. It was being dropped from high above the Earth by a #B2 Spirit bomber. Then, the graphics showed it plowing a narrow channel deep beneath the ground — around 60 meters, or 200 feet — & erupting in an illustrated explosion.#FactCheck #TrumpLies https://www.npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-s1-5444307/did-america-bunker-busting-bombs-fail-reach-iran-nuclear-target
(DIR) Post #AvUrY3ytie5FlEOJTk by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:13:52Z
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Only the #US had this 30k-pound weapon. Only America could hit #Iran's most deeply buried #uranium enrichment site at a place called #Fordow. It was buried beneath nearly 90 meters (around 300 feet) of rock, far deeper than Israeli bombs could penetrate.There was only one problem — Geoff Brumfiel wasn't entirely sure it would work.#FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUrhaPCXHgwvfEeOG by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:15:35Z
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Now it appears it may not have. Acc/to a still #classified assessment by the #Defense #Intelligence Agency, the #bombs did not "obliterate" #Iran's #Fordow enrichment site as #Trump initially claimed. Instead, the strike did only limited damage to the advanced centrifuges kept there. At most, the program was set back "a few months," acc/to a US ofcl who confirmed the assessment's existence to NPR but remained anonymous because they were not authorized to speak to press.#FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUrn3Whgy7Yh6LveK by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:16:35Z
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Yesterday, the White House disputed that claim."The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President #Trump," White House propagandist Karoline Leavitt said on the social media platform X. "Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration."Well ... not necessarily.#FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUrthPWJhB688A0eW by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:17:46Z
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Decades ago, Geoff Brumfiel covered another effort to create a powerful Earth-penetrating weapon. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, with an eye toward the caves of Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden was believed to be hiding, then-President George W. Bush's admin looked at whether a #nuclear weapon could be dropped from a plane into the ground. The Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, as the concept was known, would deliver a powerful shock to underground tunnels & bunkers.#FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUsCGnPUfBx5XBqBk by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:21:08Z
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…scientists found there was no way to get a #nuclear weapon nearly deep enough to contain the blast & fallout, & the program was abandoned.Brumfiel went back to take a look at the #math from those studies, & found it was fairly straightforward. The penetration equations have existed since the 1960s & depend on a limited number of factors, including the shape of the nose cone, the weight & diameter of the weapon, the speed at which it hits the ground, & the type of earth it gets dropped on.
(DIR) Post #AvUsKsxTUUXHlO0Q0u by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:22:39Z
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"It depends enormously on the kind of rock," says Raymond Jeanloz, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley & one of the original authors of the 2005 National Academies Study on earth penetrators.When I ran the calculations, using a key equation from that study, Geoff Brumfiel found out that the #GBU57 could go up to 80 meters (262 feet) underground if it was dropped in silty clay.#Iran #FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUsNmTa31ZmWnP5PM by peteriskrisjanis@toot.lv
2025-06-25T18:23:10Z
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@Nonilex what I have learned so far, physics kinda doesn't make it easy, nukes or not. Humans just does not have a force strong enough to ensure damage required to justify to deploy such weapons.
(DIR) Post #AvUsSxGvKvBVSUx0kK by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:24:07Z
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In medium-strength rock, things looked far different. The #GBU57 could only go around 7.9 meters (about 25 feet) beneath the earth — far short of the 60 meters claimed by the infographics.This may be an important part of the reason the weapon failed to destroy its target — if indeed the bombs did #fail as the #DIA assessment claims.#Iran #FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUsbXe1zHm0aDqyci by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:25:42Z
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The admin continues to dispute the reporting that the bombs failed to hit #Fordow, although it has shifted its stance. "The intelligence was very inconclusive. The intelligence says, 'We don't know, it could have been very severe'—that's what the intelligence says," #Trump told reporters travelling w/him today in the Hague.Jeanloz says that it's not just the strength of the rock. Changes in the geologic structure can also cause the bomb to change direction even as it moves through the Earth.
(DIR) Post #AvUsmo09VuCwUxZV0i by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:27:44Z
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"If there's any variations ... including fractures or gaps, that can deflect the trajectory into the ground," he says. Those same variations can disperse any blast from the bomb.It's clear that #US planners were aware of these kinds of challenges. Rather than dispatching 1 or 2 GBU-57s, they sent 12 to drop on #Fordow.#Iran #FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUsr3jcxVqyS9s1uC by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:28:30Z
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Based on satellite imagery, it looks like they may have been dropped in pairs, with the first weapon fracturing the rock to increase the penetrating depth of the second. The bombers also appeared to target #Fordow's ventilation system, a possible weak point.The weapons likely created a powerful shockwave in the rock that would have traveled deep underground, rattling the facility below.#Iran #FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUsua4PC60PbjGhYe by bouriquet@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T18:29:07Z
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@Nonilex Like so many of our military projects, it was probably over budget, not fully tested or maybe didn’t completely meet its requirements. Now we know…and so does everyone else.
(DIR) Post #AvUswfwQKsrgOcXAAK by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:29:31Z
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But Jeanloz says those shockwaves weaken quickly as they move into the rock. #Fordow’s position directly under the ridge of the mountain probably maximized that protection.In fact, going deeper is a simple solution to the threat of #BunkerBusters. A major conclusion from the 2005 study was that "it's cheaper & easier for someone to dig deeper than it is to penetrate through that depth," he says.#Iran #FactCheck #TrumpLies
(DIR) Post #AvUt4iUgjGAyd6OYiG by Nonilex@masto.ai
2025-06-25T18:30:58Z
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#Geology, it turns out, may have foiled one of the most audacious American air operations in recent memory.#Iran #Trump #FactCheck #TrumpLies #science #PeteHegseth #military #DOD #idiocracy #kakistocracy
(DIR) Post #AvUt6OgfLDYHmMnaoy by bransonturner@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T18:31:09Z
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@Nonilex "White House propagandist" 💯
(DIR) Post #AvUtHY9cU2ICKGeyO0 by bouriquet@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T18:33:06Z
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@Nonilex Biggest disappointment since Shock and Awe failed and probably did more to cause hate for America.
(DIR) Post #AvUuF06uBcHI7Fjqts by hstone519@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T18:43:58Z
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@Nonilex he facility may not have been destroyed, but it is definitely compromised. But what has been done is to prove to the Iranians that the United States can't be trusted. What #DonaldTrump did prior to the attack by telegraphing his plans and motives gave the Iranians notice to move everything they can to sight B.
(DIR) Post #AvUw3tea3ItkoUK4au by gdinwiddie@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T19:04:23Z
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@Nonilex "Everyone knows (except, of course, scientists who have studied the problem) what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration."
(DIR) Post #AvUwDuBevJkdMcZFEO by chemoelectric@masto.ai
2025-06-25T19:06:12Z
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@Nonilex One can feel in one's bones that "bunker busters" are among those military projects where you fudge the test conditions so they "work". Otherwise you will get in trouble.A classic example is "Star Wars". There was absolutely NO WAY to counter a Soviet multiple independent re-entry vehicle attack, so they fudged the tests to make them "work".
(DIR) Post #AvVFUX5Zx9CdmKMjKa by bouriquet@mastodon.social
2025-06-25T22:41:27Z
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@Nonilex Again, ignorance of science (geology and physics)