Post AvQIFL3GAKWNBE5rns by bonafried@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by bonafried@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AvQIBC4Rc9lQATfgTA by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T02:43:47Z
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In the next weeks I anticipate we will hear a lot about Iran's ~400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which they will probably refer to using the more scary phrase "Highly Enriched Uranium" or HEU.They will talk about how it is "out of control," which means the IAEA doesn't have tracking of it.This COULD be enriched to weapons-grade, and used for a bomb, IF they have an enrichment facility to do it in. That's a very very VERY big if. There's a very high chance their only three facilities were just destroyed.I think the odds of having a secret facility outside the knowledge of the international community is low. Not only are they hard to hide, but they're almost impossible to build without raising flags. As it turns out, a lot of centrifuges require very specialized equipment and parts. You can't build a nuclear facility in secret very easily.This is RIPE for fear mongering. I'm not a non-proliferation expert but I'll do my best to keep folks informed, as well as boost any voices or sources I find on the matter. As always happy to field questions.
(DIR) Post #AvQIBKXS8BimQlIxnM by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T02:46:51Z
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This is all an estimate. Because as it turns out Trump pulled us out of the JCPOA like a goddamn idiot, so all of the JCPOA-related surveillance was removed.What a fucking ugh. fuck.
(DIR) Post #AvQIDnFKMr8I2r09Hk by SRLevine@neuromatch.social
2025-06-22T02:48:31Z
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@rooster I was also under the impression (not a nuclear expert, do know something about centrifuges from working with a variety of them) that getting from 60% to weapons grade is very difficult. The closer you get to the higher grade the more difficult/time+power consuming the process becomes to enrich for the desired isotopes. And per your centrifuges comment: I've tried to mimic 2-4 h in a 200,000xg centrifuge by running a 20,000xg for 48 hours and it was just starting to get to what I wanted? Trying to use off the shelf/not the right stuff for this would probably make it totally impractical.
(DIR) Post #AvQIDnvVq0sQ9gjq2S by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T02:50:50Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@SRLevine yeah it is, as I'm sure you know it's an exponential decay in the enrichment, so it takes exponentially more time to increase the enrichment as it gets more enriched. Wow that was a lot.With a large facility you can do it quickly though. The chances of them having one is low. If they happen to have a few hidden somewhere, it's going to take a long time. So much of the fear mongering will have to be assuming they have some secret large facility which feels unlikely.
(DIR) Post #AvQIFL3GAKWNBE5rns by bonafried@mastodon.social
2025-06-22T03:11:39Z
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@rooster no further enrichment is necessary to produce DIRTY BOMBS jus sayin.
(DIR) Post #AvQIFMAk006EeibM6S by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T03:13:44Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@bonafried that's true, sure. But a dirty bomb made out of enriched uranium would be only marginally more deadly than one with just natural uranium. The half-life of U-235 is very very long.When we talk about dirty bombs, we mostly fear short-lived isotopes that create a lot of gammas, a lot of radiation very fast. Not a slow alpha-emitter like uranium (of all isotopes).
(DIR) Post #AvQIGXXHEeVABkhsrg by Zimme83@mastodon.nu
2025-06-22T04:29:57Z
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@rooster We also dont have any idea if they really destroyed it. Seems to be a lot of guesses and assumptions on whether they could reach it or not.
(DIR) Post #AvQIGnIccuHn4vyPFA by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T04:31:51Z
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@Zimme83 I think there's a good chance any HEU wasn't in any of the sites that got bombed. Those were obvious targets.
(DIR) Post #AvQIHBIRPEOxVK4bIG by Zimme83@mastodon.nu
2025-06-22T04:36:14Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@rooster Yes they have probably moved it, if it was there. But regarding Fordow we don't know what kind of equipment they have there, or if the bunker busters did reach them. There seems to be a lot of gambling involved..
(DIR) Post #AvQIHVruv2f9J8pDMm by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T04:43:51Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@Zimme83 as far as I know we do know what was at Fordow, the IAEA has done inspections. We only know they've enriched some U to 60% because of an unannounced inspection by the IAEA in 2023
(DIR) Post #AvQIHtLTdIyS7Tpe8O by Zimme83@mastodon.nu
2025-06-22T04:53:04Z
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@rooster Here they claim traces of up to 83.7% even, but i have no idea how credible it is. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/middleeast/iran-uranium-enrichment-iaea-intl/index.html
(DIR) Post #AvQIIExTHEqN9Olmls by rooster@beige.party
2025-06-22T05:13:34Z
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@Zimme83 I don't see any of that in their most recent report. They didn't link the source, so yeah I don't know if that's credible, or maybe the report was edited or updated.
(DIR) Post #AvQIIVwK8l1jolMbqK by Zimme83@mastodon.nu
2025-06-22T05:20:09Z
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@rooster i place it in the 'unconfirmed' folder then.