Post At32mKbEYXIS95aCiO by jgrg@mstdn.science
 (DIR) More posts by jgrg@mstdn.science
 (DIR) Post #At32mIhtanRAHAgUoy by cstross@wandering.shop
       2025-04-13T08:17:02Z
       
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       Why the USA is still heading for a DEEP recession:Trump's 90 day tariff stay causes uncertainty—what happens next? So no sane business is going to make investment plans going forward. Or hire people. They may run existing ops at full tilt to stockpile raw materials or pile up exports ahead of the deadline, but all new plans are on hold for 3 months.That ALONE is a recession. Business confidence has evaporated. The US administration is non-serious about business, so business will give up.
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mJg9yjdvI4sckq by cstross@wandering.shop
       2025-04-13T09:03:58Z
       
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       Footnote: the reason Trump is non-serious about business is because Trump doesn't understand how real businesses work. He thinks like a mobster, or a real estate salesman: all customer interactions are a prisoner's dilemma with no iteration (how many times a month do you buy an office block from the same salesman?!?) so *of course* "always defect" is a winning game-theoretical strategy.But in the real world, most businesses are built on repeat trade. And Trump has never experienced this.
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mKbEYXIS95aCiO by jgrg@mstdn.science
       2025-04-13T09:15:20Z
       
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       @cstross Yes. So he's never experienced multiple rounds with tit-for-tat being used against him.I suspect that he thinks The Apprentice gives him real business experience too.
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mLCSK94S0WzvjU by cstross@wandering.shop
       2025-04-13T09:18:03Z
       
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       @jgrg Exactly. Which is *absolutely* why he'll lose the trade war he started with the world's dominant manufacturer.It's going to get very ugly when he realizes it's happening, though: Trump's ego won't be able to take humiliation.
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mLbGpsv7FUbkPY by Salty@mastodon.nz
       2025-04-13T10:11:30Z
       
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       @cstross @jgrg I can't imagine what he'll actually DO, though... partly because I can only think about rational responses (which are never get involved in a land war in Asia, and never go up against China when tariffs are on the line). To mix my movies, much like thermonuclear war the only way to win the trade war was not to play.
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mMDCYrGH98M2XA by addressforbots@social.apcn.nz
       2025-04-13T10:19:10Z
       
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       @Salty @cstross @jgrg yep think of the most irrational response possible and do that and you won't be that far off although the problem is he's a complete moron he might actually think that's a good idea I can absolutely see him starting a nuclear war over fucking Pride or stupidity or whatever no wonder it's 89 seconds to midnight
       
 (DIR) Post #At32mMd50dxgROShs0 by cstross@wandering.shop
       2025-04-13T11:03:07Z
       
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       @addressforbots @Salty @jgrg Trump will nuke the moon, won't he.Someone will tell him about the atmospheric test ban tready, then Dilbert Stark will offer him a Falcon Heavy moonshot with an H-bomb on board, just to put it in full public view from Beijing without actually starting a shooting war. Right?… On second thoughts, that's too rational an outcome. He'll nuke the Falklands to bring South America to heel.