Post ArhhFYfw4RCLRaEAD2 by ianrogers@mstdn.social
 (DIR) More posts by ianrogers@mstdn.social
 (DIR) Post #ArhghOKQ2BVZVVs4cS by glennf@zeppelin.flights
       2025-03-04T02:41:55Z
       
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       Would love potash, the most boring substance, to be the turning point in this U.S.-initiated trade war. Canada supplies 80% of it to the United States. A 25% tariff will ruin American farmers. Canada could also choose to block its export. It’s practically the spice melange…People are searching on the term…https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-US&tz=480&date=today+3-m&geo=US&hl=en&q=potash&sni=3More on potash: https://natural-resources.canada.ca/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts
       
 (DIR) Post #Arhh4xlYRaJa4knsFk by DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange
       2025-03-04T03:39:15Z
       
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       @glennf I have bad news. We're gonna get it from Russia.
       
 (DIR) Post #Arhh4ysKJtKHW2ynRo by glennf@zeppelin.flights
       2025-03-04T03:56:38Z
       
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       @DarcMoughty a) We already buy some from them b) they already have commitments. The quantity that needs to be replaced is enormous. And it would not wind up being cheaper from Russia.
       
 (DIR) Post #Arhh4zoooQ78RSLVcO by DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange
       2025-03-04T04:36:43Z
       
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       @glennf Would it be cheaper to get it from Russia/Belarus... if the Canadian stuff costs 25% more than today?Because that's happening in half an hour. 😟
       
 (DIR) Post #Arhh50cnoa62wTjQWm by fcktheworld587@social.linux.pizza
       2025-03-04T07:19:21Z
       
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       @DarcMoughty @glennf idunno where they're sourcing their nitrates from, but I'd imagine their military has been sucking up a lot of them.  Don't imagine they'd just have enough fertilizer on hand to take up supplying the US, nor would they have sufficient infrastructure to begin producing it - is just my guess with 0 knowledge re: existent Russian infrastructure or supply chains
       
 (DIR) Post #ArhhFWDVDBGXoouQc4 by ianrogers@mstdn.social
       2025-03-04T04:43:14Z
       
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       @glennf 50% of the US nickel comes form Ontario, too.
       
 (DIR) Post #ArhhFXQehlNhZu4Rkm by glennf@zeppelin.flights
       2025-03-04T05:07:19Z
       
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       @ianrogers Canada has remarkable leverage if they choose to use it. I hope they will. Shame the loser in the White House.
       
 (DIR) Post #ArhhFYfw4RCLRaEAD2 by ianrogers@mstdn.social
       2025-03-04T05:24:07Z
       
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       @glennf If we really wantd to screw with them, patents would be a great way to go. Espcially drug patents. We would be doing the world a service if we did.https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-must-hit-the-us-where-it-hurts-most-its-lucrative-patents/
       
 (DIR) Post #Ari8zYURmzd8x70le4 by DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange
       2025-03-04T12:32:09Z
       
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       @fcktheworld587 I feel like I'm sounding pro-Russian here, but I'm not. I'm trying to call it as I see it from a purely economic standpoint.Russia and Belarus together have the capacity to export as much potash as Canada, they did before they invaded Ukraine. The agricultural use far outstrips the military.The war/sanctions shifted our demand farther over to Canada. There's a lot of unused capacity in the Russian potash industry, and the world's biggest reserves.Getting it from Russia will be a 'return to normal' of sorts. It's possible that ending sanctions might even drop the global price of the commodity enough so that it's cheaper for American farmers to buy potash even with the tariffs than it has been for the last three years.