Post ArTe4L3O4PR4WiwLse by smari@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by smari@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #ArTe40z6gc80HemeQq by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:45:55Z
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Europe got caught with its pants down and is scrambling to figure out what a future without the US as a reliable ally looks like, let alone a security guarantor. Conversations I've had over the last week lead me to believe that regardless of what else happens, Trump has permanently harmed the US-Europe relationship. But there are nuances that need to be understood that get lost in the debate: (thread)
(DIR) Post #ArTe46pkwIDIQOSGgq by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:46:34Z
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- Europe hasn't been freeloading on NATO. The ONLY country that has asked for help under article 5 is the US, and European countries (including Non-NATO countries like Ukraine!) spent billions and sent soldiers, aid agencies and experts to help. - When the US demands x% of GDP in defense spending from NATO allies, the subtext is they want the money to be spent on buying bling from the US, like F35 jets.
(DIR) Post #ArTe4BE0c3zS2lph32 by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:46:42Z
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- Europe's defensive capabilities have shrunk in the last decades, in part because they've been reshaping their military force structure to be better at expeditionary actions, such as helping the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. - The fact that Trump is ignoring and belittling these pivots and sacrifices by European countries will make European countries a lot more hesitant to help out the US in the future.
(DIR) Post #ArTe4GS1BPAQFfQS4u by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:46:53Z
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This all feeds into the most important point: The US has for decades maintained a massive soft-power base, by seeming legitimate, broadly democratic, broadly in favor of human rights, and explicitly supportive of their allies. Even when these things have failed (via torture, extrajudicial murder, etc) they've been broadly trusted. What Trump has done in recent weeks has been a soft power bonfire, destroying 80 years of trust that the US had built with global allies.
(DIR) Post #ArTe4L3O4PR4WiwLse by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:47:01Z
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What this means in practice: Less ability to get help. Less ability to buy important things. Less ability to sell military equipment to other countries. Less ability to do trade in general. Less ability to set up bases all over the place. Less ability to impose will, for better and unfortunately for worse. The US just abdicated from 80 years of global soft power hegemony. That sound you're hearing is the cheers from Russia, China, Iran, and every other country that opposes democracy or liberty.
(DIR) Post #ArTe4QAf2nE0OjNjPc by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T10:49:52Z
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I don't think the US can entirely recover from this. Damage is done. But if Americans recognize that this is one of many, many ways in which Trump and his goons are actively harming the United States, and respond appropriately, it's possible that some of the damage can be repaired over time.As for Europe: we've got work to do, reducing our dependence on the US, building more strategic resilience, and taking our future into our hands.End thread.
(DIR) Post #ArTe7zAHOVEZnXu304 by publius@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-02-25T12:39:33Z
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@smari Speaking as someone who indirectly benefits, and knows people who directly benefit, from the production of the F35?It's a piece of rubbish. Don't buy it. Even the people who build it will tell you that.
(DIR) Post #ArTeFWJIYgvockiLOS by smari@mastodon.social
2025-02-25T12:41:41Z
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@publius yeah. I've talked with US naval aviators who say it's the best they've got but they wished they had something better. It's all tradeoffs all the way down. What's worse? For European buyers of it, it may now be an incredibly expensive paperweight, because there's no guarantee the US will let them use it.