Post ArOgGvDoUXeED0KzeS by pwm@lab.nyanide.com
(DIR) More posts by pwm@lab.nyanide.com
(DIR) Post #ArOZUeiLxmSnO3Dx8S by nyx@social.xenofem.me
2025-02-23T01:54:16.950055Z
1 likes, 2 repeats
it's so fucking wholesome and funny how highly intelligent and educated people have no career opportunities other than sex work xD
(DIR) Post #ArOaW5e5Q2yD9kTa1Q by nyx@social.xenofem.me
2025-02-23T02:03:41.253592Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@mia it's... not that they're made to believe that they're worthless it's that there are literally no fucking job opportunities available
(DIR) Post #ArOaWK33rzGZpGGitU by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T02:05:18.494Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st we're just now starting to go on the other side of the business cycle. i just read a news article talking about how home values have now just been flat for a year but then the article continues saying that they only expect modest house growth for this next year as if houses have never gone down in value due to economic conditions and that this trend has no sign of suddenly reversing
(DIR) Post #ArOaWL5E1Qaj2GHxuC by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T02:06:20.073Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st "don't worry guys, house prices have suddenly stopped increasing and are now flat. but don't worry, it's going to grow instead of continuing on it's current trajectory because uhhhh reasons buying a house is guaranteed money don't you know"
(DIR) Post #ArObuZsgkuenpmXxDM by adiz@mtl.jinxian.casa
2025-02-23T02:21:59.847391Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@shibao> have suddenly stopped increasing and are now flatGreat! They've stopped at +$250k above their original fair market value. Housing availability and affordability is saved! @nyx @mia
(DIR) Post #ArObzZEKbSZVGO36Lg by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T02:22:50.268Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@adiz@mtl.jinxian.casa @nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st the point of that entire post is that they're not going to stop, they are going to go lower
(DIR) Post #ArOch9iYoqEWsayObA by pwm@lab.nyanide.com
2025-02-23T02:30:47.548965Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@shibao @nyx @mia @adiz 5 year, 10000 dollar mortgages, soon
(DIR) Post #ArOd7gZZHtTEJ4PwSu by mischievoustomato@tsundere.love
2025-02-23T02:35:31.932568Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@nyx sseth was a cancerdoctor
(DIR) Post #ArOeHGNdcouRvEy51E by mrsaturday@shitposter.world
2025-02-23T02:48:29.903618Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@mia @nyx The fake job ads are to 1. build a case to import an H-1B or 2. train their AI to better reject resumes they don't like. Retail being much harder to get into is real, though. They don't want to hire kids or people down on their luck anymore, they want bored boomers that plan on staying there for years and want to supplement their retirement
(DIR) Post #ArOfZdbQ7jkH6yjwoa by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T03:02:58.361Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@pwm@lab.nyanide.com @nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st @adiz@mtl.jinxian.casa banks would never pass up the opportunity to not collect basically a 44% percent profit* (not counting the losses from people who default) from houses so you will always have 15-30 year long mortgages offered (see pic 1 related). however, the thing about these price drops is that they happen really fast (relatively, takes a few years) because of a cascading effect. as soon as one person has to sell for one reason or another, they have to drop the price to what anyone is willing to buy it for and eat the loss, which causes the prices of all the people around them to drop, which in their case might cause those people around them to want to sell before it drops more (if they're not tethered to the house for a physical job) but more likely, whatever cause someone to move will probably also make other people need to leave also, meaning they will have to drop the price lower than the first person, which causes all the house values to drop around them, etc. worst case when it gets bad enough like 2008 they just walk away en masse, but i don't think that will happen. but they're almost like a ponzi scheme where the first people make out with most of the money to put in, but the rest lose even more, and the rest after that lose even more, etc.now look at this chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gj-KvkgWEAAc_z2?format=jpg&name=mediumthis is the number of listings where people put their price too high on the market, they try dropping the price down a little, but nobody buys it so they take it off the market and try again later during the next housing market. these are like the waves in the ponzi scheme, and recently the first wave had a massive number of people that failed to get out of the ponzi scheme. the supply of houses in a lot of areas are already back to 2019 levels (so normal), and when all of these houses hit the market this year, they will also be joined with all the people in the second wave, etc etc.so the first loser is on the person who bought the house, rip their credit, but if if it's foreclosed then second loser is the bank. last time the us just bailed out the banks, but i don't think the us can bail them out again because our debt levels are already like 120% gdp so they get much more massive consequences if they bail them out like last time, going to 200% gdp would basically turn the us dollar into the yen with it devaluing a ton. it will be interesting, but i doubt they will be the ones stuck with the bill
(DIR) Post #ArOgGvDoUXeED0KzeS by pwm@lab.nyanide.com
2025-02-23T03:10:52.140223Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@shibao @nyx @mia @adiz I'm going to live in my tiny home forever, aren't I?
(DIR) Post #ArOhGhrcFxCmjYPrQe by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T03:21:57.242Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pwm@lab.nyanide.com @nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st @adiz@mtl.jinxian.casa if you have it paid off, either sell now and rent or sit pretty, if you don't have it paid off then either be sure you don't need to move in 5-10-15 years at the worst or if the equity is above the price of rent for 2-3 years then rent. you can't depend on renters to make your payment with a house. then just take all that money and buy your next house at the bottom from a distressed sale or something. i know someone who bought a house in really bad shape for like 15k in 2005 or whatever and now it's worth like 200-300k. i don't think you'll get 15k but maybe a house like that will be like 50k, you'd probably just want to get a normal house tho. imo you'd probably be better off selling even if the profit doesn't cover the rent depending on how much of a downturn you can expect, if you're in new england then it's probably not going to be too much, but florida? that's gonna be painful
(DIR) Post #ArOhiFQjZ6Z8emyVeq by icedquinn@blob.cat
2025-02-23T03:26:59.225213Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@nyx fuck. i'm grossly underqualified for streaming :blobfoxterrified:
(DIR) Post #ArOhrtCv2mpud76v9E by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T03:28:40.768Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pwm@lab.nyanide.com @nyx@social.xenofem.me @mia@movsw.0x0.st @adiz@mtl.jinxian.casa I picked the second random house in florida (first was too new) and lmao, look how high it's listed over the value. you can see given the history that it could easily go down to 350k, but it could definitely go way lower than that. sellers have no idea how bad it's going to get. this guy bought it way earlier but theoretically if someone picked up a house for 2021 value then it has a really long way to fall, if that's you then taking the cost of renting is way less than easily 100k off your house value that you directly just have to eat basically
(DIR) Post #ArOi9FDUT2dLoTeZQO by thendrix@social.hendrixgames.com
2025-02-23T03:31:51.695940Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
Well, you have to consider insurance hikes and higher rates. A lot of people will stay put and fewer people can buy. You can't get a mortgage without the insurance. :shrugz:
(DIR) Post #ArOizwrrQ17WFkfRQG by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T03:41:20.498Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thendrix@social.hendrixgames.com it's my belief that insurance hikes are a response to houses being highly overvalued, of course insurance costs will have to be hiked up to account for that overvaluation, and then you have the price gap between what the house is actually worth due to repairs not happening/put off where the insurance has to account for that in order to put it back on the market at the real price. imo it's all driven by overvaluation
(DIR) Post #ArOjB1k9dC9wYnLUI4 by shibao@misskey.bubbletea.dev
2025-02-23T03:43:19.290Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thendrix@social.hendrixgames.com if i'm right, theoretically you could take the average cost of insurance on all the houses in an area, divided by the average value of the house and then adjust with CPI data and it should show that overvaluation gap pretty clearly, it should show up in waves as a lagging indicator since it'd just follow the market
(DIR) Post #ArOjBKZVczvwxHVkps by thendrix@social.hendrixgames.com
2025-02-23T03:43:26.958347Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
Yeah, but the insurance hikes are forcing salary ranges needed to keep a house not just buy a house to shift outside of normal factors. I know a lot of people had to leave FL over it even if they weathered the influx of people causing housing increases on top of inflation. :shrugz: