Post AjRZcaUXTWkcAITFHk by interfluidity@zirk.us
(DIR) More posts by interfluidity@zirk.us
(DIR) Post #AjQv7LaUqE5EnWo1uS by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-29T22:09:48Z
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[new draft post] Superdelegates https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/06/29/superdelegates/index.html
(DIR) Post #AjRVh4B0eKA5ZbDSiW by djc@fosstodon.org
2024-06-30T04:59:37Z
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@interfluidity sorry to be naive but I don't really follow why he would have to withdraw from a petition of strength. Can't it just become obvious to everyone (including him) that he shouldn't be the candidate? And then he withdraws, endorsing someone he and Harris picked? (Even while many are writing about this obvious fact)
(DIR) Post #AjRZ5sCKcfBVWYM4Lg by djc@fosstodon.org
2024-06-30T05:15:37Z
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@interfluidity *position
(DIR) Post #AjRZ5tFugpdynx2RZQ by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:37:44Z
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@djc it could! if it becomes sufficiently untenable for him to even pretend to go on, that might happen. but if there isn't any internal process, it will be hard to prevent ambitious politicians from contesting what institutionally would become an open convention. the point of a "position of strength" is the ability to "clear the field", to get consensus behind the ticket they endorse even from disappointed contenders. 1/
(DIR) Post #AjRZMlZwUBBDuySD0i by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:40:47Z
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@djc the goal would be (and should be at this point in the cycle IMHO) to prevent a mediagenic quasi-"democratic" horse race during which negative campaigning intraparty would be difficult to prevent. instead of Biden, the choice is between Trump and what the publish perceives as chaotic, ambitious, backbiters and their rioting supporters outside the convention. 2/
(DIR) Post #AjRZcaUXTWkcAITFHk by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:43:39Z
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@djc that may prov impossible! if the rebellion cannot be crushed, if there is sufficient pressure from democratic pols and public to drop out now now now, then they may feel they have no alternative than just calling quits (with or without some endorsement) and risking a chaotic, more-democratic-in-form-than-substance, "open convention". 3/
(DIR) Post #AjRZhdgl13VHWpavHk by djc@fosstodon.org
2024-06-30T05:44:33Z
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@interfluidity ah yeah, I think that makes sense. I don't know much but I'm probably less negative than you on seeing a mini primary-ish process. Yeah one downside is that attacks will come out. But there's value to testing people in the spotlight.
(DIR) Post #AjRZt7bO8gGbUMYglc by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:46:38Z
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@djc That might work out! I mean, both Biden and Trump are absurdly unpopular candidates that only America's weird electoral institutions would have set up for a run-off. A kind of random quasidemocratic process might well do better! But it also might prove terrible. It would be wiser to prefer a better-managed and substantively more democratically legit process (the winner of the public election chooses his emergency successor), if that remains possible. /fin
(DIR) Post #AjRa9yTNKnmI67qXrM by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:49:41Z
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@djc Usually I'm on the other side of this. I hate it when people tell potential primary contenders to stay out because it would be "divisive". Given our terrible electoral system and the two-party oligopoly it yields, the primary system is the *only* outlet through which new ideas and ideologies can gain expression. My first choice would be to pick a better electoral system, but while we have this one, contesting primaries should always be encouraged IMHO. 1/
(DIR) Post #AjRaLLBLF7FdiLpb84 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:51:45Z
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@djc But I don't think that holds now. What little legitimacy surrounds our usual, very flawed electoral process comes from the fact that the rules and contours are well-known in advance, and the public does have some ways to intervene in it. This process would lack that legitimacy. "Public opinion" would have its effect only through media and algorithmic social-media funhouse mirrors. Those are both antidemocratic antiprocedures. 2/
(DIR) Post #AjRaY0EgQnMEW2Qqp6 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:54:02Z
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@djc And unless there is a very quick consolidation behind a ticket (what I think the outgoing administration stands responsible to engineer), all bets are off about whether Democrats will be able to present themselves as suitable to govern. (And of course interested actors — Republicans, maybe geopolitical interests that would prefer dealing with Trump administration — will act strategically to provoke an unflattering process if they can.) /fin
(DIR) Post #AjRathLbL34CIz0rq4 by notroot@notroot.online
2024-06-30T05:47:31.589Z
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@djc@fosstodon.org @interfluidity@zirk.us Question: in your fantastic Bernie-Bros-level imaginary scenario:Why wouldn't Harris be the candidate?She's been the fuckin' VPOTUS for 4 years. Which other Democrat has more experience?Next point: Biden and Harris poll better against Trump than any other comer. Why even ditch Biden when he's got Harris' spine and the best polling?
(DIR) Post #AjRatiIRoG8dFUXrYu by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:57:57Z
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@notroot @djc Did you read my piece? I'm fine if an outgoing Biden Administration chooses Harris to lead the new ticket. I think who leads any new ticket is a decision both the prerogative and responsibility of the Biden Administration. I also think if the process can't be managed well—by the Biden-Harris administration—then the best choice might well be to stick with the ticket as is, although after that debate i think it's in a much weaker position than even its not-so-strong position before.
(DIR) Post #AjRb47LxVLC7rA9H5E by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T05:59:50Z
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@notroot @djc ( if you didn't read it, here's the link again https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/06/29/superdelegates/index.html )
(DIR) Post #AjRcP9sDQfqfhypj5E by notroot@notroot.online
2024-06-30T06:10:35.122Z
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@interfluidity@zirk.us @djc@fosstodon.org OK. I read it. It rambles more than John McCain.The point is that the hair-on-fire hand-wringing is just typical spineless left-of-center panic.And it's embarrassing. Grow a fuckin spine.That's why I keep emphasizing VP Harris. She has a spine. Biden does, too, but he is, as everyone knows, pretty old. You want young blood?Nobody better than VP Harris.Best way to ensure Kamala Harris -- and not Trump -- has the best chance at succession to the Presidency?Vote for President Joe Biden. That's how you keep Harris in power. That's how you prep her for the Presidency in 2028. You give her another 4 years of executive experience at the federal level.Let's start playing the long game, people. Our opponents are.
(DIR) Post #AjRcPAbwgeQbzoEFMW by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T06:14:50Z
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@notroot @djc Of course I'm voting for Joe Biden if he is on the ticket. And it's fine with me if the day after, he resigns in Kamala's favor. I would just hope she continues the administration's great domestic policy work. The difficulty is what the best path is in actual political reality to defeat Donald Trump. I do think the debate performance renders that reality less favorable. I'm arguing the best we can do is place it in the administration's hands to decide the best way forward from that
(DIR) Post #AjSaeDlPF5cVMofA00 by kentwillard@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:29:51Z
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@interfluidity Give Harris a bigger role now, not relegated to speaking on women and minority issues. Make her the attack dog on Trump, he is vulnerable to someone who can re-write the narrative. Is Kamala up to it? Or would they try to debate gish gallop? Find out now.But I fear that the First Lady won't share the stage.
(DIR) Post #AjSbFElmSsZJCZUMi0 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:36:33Z
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@kentwillard i'm in the weird position of having more faith in this administration than most people. somehow these people overcame a ridiculously bad hand during debt-ceiling "negotiations", turned humiliation over build-back-better into the most important climate change legislation in history, got Ukraine aid done (shamefully, consequentially late!) despite Trumpist sabotage. if they can negotiate all this, surely they can negotiate a right thing among high-ranking Democrats, including Harris.
(DIR) Post #AjSbH3lgL6dFezJNk8 by kentwillard@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:36:52Z
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@interfluidity What do we know about Biden's condition? I wouldn't be surprised if Biden knows that he has an advanced, terminal condition and that they are in denial. If that's the case, then he will get worse between now and November. I don't want to sound morbid, but we are making suggestions without full information.
(DIR) Post #AjSbUSef7dmabrQ0fo by kentwillard@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:39:18Z
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@interfluidity I agree with you on good policy decisions, where there is little vanity and deference to trusted experts. We have entered personal decisions. Different people and different motives.
(DIR) Post #AjSbnPmQ2F9TCB5IOW by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:42:44Z
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@kentwillard I guess I think getting Manchin on-board with IRA after he tanked BBB, getting Eric McCarthy to join a debt-ceiling deal that (unintentionally of the Biden Administration) became his political death warrant, getting Mike Johnson to authorize Ukraine aid despite very credible threats to his career for acceding all go way beyond deference to trusted experts. Different people for sure, but similarly ambitious and vain people. And here, there really is a lot more mutual interest.
(DIR) Post #AjSc1Q3nn0o67RtQzw by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:45:16Z
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@kentwillard We are! That's ordinary in our style representative democracy, where we elect representatives but reserve the right to weigh in continually despite being much less informed than those we've elected and the staff they hire. 1/
(DIR) Post #AjSc6exfoa0vmYWd4C by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:46:12Z
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@kentwillard I have no insight into what Joe Biden the person knows or doesn't know. But the Biden Administration has so far behaved very rationally and competently ( except on Israel/Gaza, unless you buy something like the theory I invented to try to make sense of that https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/05/08/the-long-fistbump/index.html ). 2/
(DIR) Post #AjScZ6XmrDRfR5yrce by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-06-30T17:51:20Z
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@kentwillard Whatever else you might think of Jill Biden, she does not seem addled, and she understands the stakes. I think there are grounds for some optimism this, like all the rest, will ultimately be handled competently, which doesn't necessarily mean what you and i might want, but does mean evaluating and if necessary negotiating a good alternative when they have staunched a public panic that renders them incapable of acting carefully and strategically as long as it continues. /fin