Post AiguAXBveOY5TIWFfM by feld@bikeshed.party
(DIR) More posts by feld@bikeshed.party
(DIR) Post #AigjHrwjmdKyNChzAO by FluentInFinance@mastodon.social
2024-06-07T13:28:04Z
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Tip for people in their 20s:A 24-year-old only needs to invest $100/ week to have a $1 Million portfolio by age 55 (in an S&P 500 index fund).If you wait until 30 to start, you will make $400,000 less.If you wait until age 40, you make $800,000 less.Time is your biggest asset. Use it to your advantage.
(DIR) Post #AigjHsfl5FLkcplwLA by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T15:10:46Z
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@FluentInFinance tip for people in your 20s:The modern financial market is inextricably tied up in mortgages based on housing that will lose value as the climate changes. The more the climate changes, the less trustworthy the financial markets are. We're in for decades of 2008-2010 markets as the suburbs and exurbs become uninsurable while they also suffer more frequent disasters.Don't depend on the conditions and climate of the past or take the suggestions that create the problem.Learn something useful for our changing climate, you'll always be able to get paid.
(DIR) Post #AigjLo77ySd3e5RjEm by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T15:20:13.509454Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance finally some good finance posts on this platform
(DIR) Post #AigjdQkvYdJQPkSvse by sun@shitposter.world
2024-06-07T15:24:25.182328Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish we're in a bubble right so even before climate change we're looking at trouble...
(DIR) Post #AigkHsMAMHiPbEAZU0 by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T15:30:56Z
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@sun @feld @FluentInFinance climate change has already begun. We're well into the 'how bad will it be' set of choices now.
(DIR) Post #AigkHthpLEdVmhJNsu by sun@shitposter.world
2024-06-07T15:31:44.858333Z
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@thesquirrelfish @feld @FluentInFinance yeah that is true, I chose words poorly.
(DIR) Post #AigkcqaI8tS4BUmCzA by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T15:34:52.015760Z
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@sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish also dumping money into index funds is the opposite of good advice; it's a trend that exists because the average person doesn't have the knowledge or time to invest properly and we lost pensions as a standard pillar of our retirement (most 401ks are balls deep in index funds with maybe a sprinkling of bonds because most people don't understand bonds either. Note, the 60/40 diversification recommendation is dead; do not fall for that trap in the current economy).So this makes index funds incredibly overweight and creates the toppling giants in the American economy that everyone hates. All your retirement money is being sent to the big tech companies you hate. They're literally gambling with your future and providing the funding for the Next Big Tech Thing, the surveillance of us all, etc etc.Huh, so what's going to happen to everyone's retirement portfolios when the massive bubble pops and the recession takes hold? Oopsy, the entire middle class is gonna get wiped out because they had no idea that their Easy-Mode investment plan of blindly dumping 8% of their paycheck into an index fund managed by the hedgies would disintegrate before their very eyes when reality hits the markets.Index funds providing the returns they've managed to do since ~2008 is an anomaly, not the rule. Those funds have only grown bigger and bigger since the great recession and have set unrealistic expectations fueled by ZIRP.The Red Candles are coming.
(DIR) Post #Aigl6vVqNr2o9m2UTo by sun@shitposter.world
2024-06-07T15:40:58.347754Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish give me tangible investment advice
(DIR) Post #Aigms4ERsmxklQweMS by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T15:57:12Z
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@sun @feld @FluentInFinance help people! Esp. young people. Help someone become a nurse, a construction worker, a childcare worker, an electrician, a solar installer, a home health aid, a disaster remediation expert. Help neighbors & help stop displacement - we need to see the changes to make good choices. Invest in ADUs & local grocers & bike shops & anything that contributes to sustainable neighborhoods - local jobs, local people, local connections. Repair shops & quality second hand stores. We need more buses & shuttles particularly from cities to places like campgrounds and parks and such during appropriate seasons and holidays(also in other local contexts but you'd have to do the research). Intimate connections with nature like hunting, fishing, CSAs, CSFs, farmstands, and farmers markets. Co-op and worker owned businesses. Community land trusts.
(DIR) Post #Aigmv2E7nK27PiCzOy by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:00:21.460020Z
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@sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish short term: T-Bills, bitcoin, other inflation protected assets. Try to have cash available when the crash happens. long term: invest in critical industries. Oil, energy, water, healthcare. When the market crashes then it will be your time to scoop up cheap stocks of companies you want to speculate on and bonds which will be pennies on the dollar: municipal bonds of hot cities, corporate bonds of key players that won't go away like grocery chains (Krogers, some tech behemoths like AAPL, etc)Otherwise for now try to find stocks that pay dividends. They will help you weather the volatility of the market.
(DIR) Post #AigmwWIDUlyGx2pYYK by sun@shitposter.world
2024-06-07T16:01:30.342900Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish thanks, I'm old now so I'm in a different category than OPs advice.
(DIR) Post #Aign1tbuEEaEiXbTyS by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:01:58.696739Z
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@thesquirrelfish @sun @FluentInFinance this will do good for the community but it's not gonna ensure you can have a retirement.
(DIR) Post #AignFT9JPK0qhghXIu by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:04:25.761907Z
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@sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish I'd also recommend REITs when the real estate market returns to normal. Then you can make money off real estate without having to own the whole property.Also this is considered evil by many but you gotta do what you gotta do in this economic climate
(DIR) Post #AigodPzIufPDnq0I3U by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T16:05:36Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun having a home health aid or nurse or construction worker who loves you seems much more trustworthy than money. Having abundant additional residential units in your community is safer than having a single uninsured house in your old age.
(DIR) Post #Aigoya02srZAw4RPMW by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T16:06:54Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun I don't think there will be a return to normal
(DIR) Post #AigoybWhCxHHfciztQ by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:23:43.633114Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun no, not to what we considered to be "normal". That's over.But we need like an 80% retraction in the markets, especially real estate. Maybe not 80% everywhere else in the economy, but that correction will be quite large as well.It's already starting. I've posted several examples of giant commercial buildings selling for a fraction of their previous valueshttps://www.costar.com/article/642008108/one-of-st-louis-tallest-office-towers-empty-for-years-sells-for-less-than-2-of-its-peak-price
(DIR) Post #AigpURlV2G2GfAph1k by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:29:22.538312Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun you really have to admit that this is not normal or sane
(DIR) Post #AigqjCpcwK3Ge6Mgfw by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T16:41:38Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun oh I fully agree. I just am not sure that getting passive returns from financial markets is going to be possible in the harder world of climate change we seem to be headed toward. If most people have to struggle even more for the basics, where's the return going to come from? It seems like it would require increased authoritarian enforcement that's (hopefully/probably) not scalable.Like the world doesn't have to be zero sum, but investing in oil & gas & industrial ag lowers the total output of basic human need filling goods from the system. If we have to put more money/energy into needs filling, the available human resources for providing rents/passive returns is lowered. So they're kind of self-defeating
(DIR) Post #AigqjE72B5ZOcNW6Rk by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:43:12.447427Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun dividends, that's where it comes from. Like your grandparents had access to after WW2. So we go back to the way things used to be: companies focused on long-term growth stability in a slower economic climate where financing is expensive. Instead they pay dividends to attract investors who want to ride with them for many years to fund their big capex projects instead of the current method of leveraging cheap funding from ZIRP and letting their stock become a casino.
(DIR) Post #AigqpluJRUdFAUgfz6 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T16:44:53.800727Z
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@TURBORETARD9000 @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish @sun not the entire market, just the hedgies running dark pools will be sufficient
(DIR) Post #Aigs5RNXdQ085UOVX6 by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T16:58:54Z
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@feld @TURBORETARD9000 @FluentInFinance @sun right but the big CapEx investments are subject to the same problems of housing - climate disasters.
(DIR) Post #Aigt7LpXKoXtPdxoES by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T17:00:55Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun right but the CapEx projects have the same problems as housing - climate disasters. If we can get to zero emissions relatively quickly that might be doable, but that seems to be dependent on such significant economic changes that it would make this conversation irrelevant.
(DIR) Post #Aigt7MqdYD1IZLUCaO by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T17:09:53.723381Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun a CapEx project of buying/building a datacenter next to a nuclear power plant for dirt cheap energy in an area that is not at risk of flooding does not carry the same risks as a CapEx project to rebuild powerline infrastrucuture across the country or constructing residential/commercial properties in an area that will have to deal with hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or coastal flooding.Insurance will fill the gaps. They're not going to do these projects without insurance. The banks won't allow it.I wouldn't concern myself so much about getting to zero emissions relatively quickly. The math really isn't in our favor here. We can get to zero in some areas e.g., like electrical generation, but that's only a tiny part of our real carbon footprint.If we did it fast we'd suffer from a heat wave anyway. There will be repercussions from us changing the balance too quickly. We're already seeing it right now with a heat wave that is most likely caused by reducing sulphur emissions for shipping. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurt
(DIR) Post #AigtDxwoWnyvMwWPUu by sun@shitposter.world
2024-06-07T17:11:52.933687Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish stop the forever wars and US emissions drop by over 59 million metric tons annually
(DIR) Post #AiguAXBveOY5TIWFfM by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T17:21:46.014376Z
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@sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish I'm seriously worried about the albedo cooling effect of contrails being lost. We may have to literally fly drones to spray something to reflect heat back out into space as a stopgap solution.There are forces and consequences we don't fully understand yet and if we don't talk about them it's going to embolden climate deniers who don't fully grasp the mechanics at play here. It's just a tough situation. How do you explain to the public "yeah, pollution is bad and we gotta stop but also when we stop bad things will happen as a result -- not forever, but long enough to make people believe emissions are actually a good thing for humanity"
(DIR) Post #AigvtngLHmBrbLtRK4 by night@iddqd.social
2024-06-07T17:24:16.858424Z
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"deniers" is a grifter word. When you're operating on truth instead buzzword welfare you don't have to worry about "deniers."
(DIR) Post #Aigvtot8ng1RLKtAuW by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T17:41:09.410737Z
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@night @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish @sun when the climate literally gets hotter from reducing pollution it is not fair to label people as "grifters" because they don't have a grasp on the underlying physics/mechanics of what they're experiencing in the short term."My crops are failing this year because the scientists say it's an unfortunate but necessary temporary side effect of cleaning up the environment. I can't use my diesel anymore because it's dirty and the new energy is MORE expensive and all I see is money being wasted, my income reducing, and my quality of life getting worse than it used to be" is very likely going to be a reality.If you cannot figure out how to navigate this extremely possibly and sensitive situation and just discard them as "grifters" because you want to pat yourself on the back as being on the right side of history you're just fueling political divisiveness and maybe even revolution/civil war.You can say they're denying climate change but you're also denying their lived experience. The situation needs to be handled with careful nuance. Treat them like actual human beings instead of enemies.
(DIR) Post #Aigw2skjnlENw1HOq0 by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T17:40:14Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun I disagree - as we're seeing previous climactically stable areas increasingly impacted by new threats a place safe from flooding might be in more danger from tornadoes and wildfires etc. Svalbard Seed Bank was thought to be the safest place for a thousand years and just a few decades later we see it in jeopardy. The data centers value depends on much of the same infrastructure as the long distance wired electrical grid. Etc.
(DIR) Post #Aigw2tgAMFAUo89GLo by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T17:42:59.930085Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun re: Svalbard Seed Bank -- we made a long term decision without enough data. It's just the way it is.
(DIR) Post #AigwPuektGwEUzSmlk by night@iddqd.social
2024-06-07T17:43:32.254718Z
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The regime grifters are subhuman commies and I'd be happy if they died or got killed. Muh right side of history lmao. You mean this woke trash in the west right now? This ghetto garbage hellhole? You must be joking. Oh I can't wait to gulag the people who ruined the west with these scams. I'm going to auschwitz them 1000 times over. They're going to wish they had someone as kind as Hitler back.
(DIR) Post #AigwPvlskGEVxNnzW4 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T17:47:03.867917Z
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@night you're not going to do anything at all because you're just a fake tough-guy hiding behind a keyboard. Nobody finds this rhetoric amusing.
(DIR) Post #Aigxn4m5XM5UUjVCFM by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T17:59:08Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun right and my point is that the more rapidly climate change advances the less we'll be able to determine what will be safe enough to give reliable returns for large long-term projects.
(DIR) Post #Aigxn5wPCTw071Kwy0 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T18:02:17.902203Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun the returns need to be low and we need to accept it as the cost of a stable economy. The last 50 years have been absolute chaos in comparison. We cannot sustain the desires of greedy people pushing for short term gains at any and all costs.A culture change will need to happen and it probably won't take hold until real pain is experienced IMO.
(DIR) Post #Aih0ZZbaPdT7vFqKDQ by NonPlayableClown@postnstuffds.lol
2024-06-07T18:34:13.646454Z
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So how you going to achieve that? 🤔
(DIR) Post #Aih0g4ZOCSAPh8ulF2 by Darbzilla@decayable.ink
2024-06-07T18:35:24.364178Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Very carefully (I didn't read the comment)
(DIR) Post #Aih1pg42GZG0XeOPnU by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T18:38:42Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun yes but if you're getting low & slow returns why have the overhead of the large financial markets/large CapEx projects? It seems like local small investment is the best way to get the cultural change & that style of returns - plus you get the emotional return of seeing the improvements your money makes. Many small diversified projects & markets are inherently less risky.
(DIR) Post #Aih1phLRVKm8VvXpZI by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T18:47:37.237481Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun because some things cannot be done any other way without large CapEx projects. It's just the reality. We did this just fine in the past when interest rates were high and everyone survived.On a related topic though, the need for large CapEx projects is why cities are going broke. They have no choice and they can't print their own money.https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/4/1/heres-the-real-reason-houston-is-going-broke
(DIR) Post #Aih79rTM3k1JUEgBqi by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-07T19:27:38Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun I agree there is need for infrastructure CapEx projects, can you give any examples of private CapEx projects that we need?
(DIR) Post #Aih79slTFs6bUiAAj2 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-07T19:47:19.290746Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun pharma R&D which can take many years, private infrastructure (e.g., nuclear), private aerospace, large complex manufacturing (anything from a new car company to microchips -- the fabs take years to setup)... I'm sure there are other great examples if I think about it some more
(DIR) Post #AijATsn5YWx7Xt4Hsu by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T19:11:17Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun Those almost entirely seem like government funded & subsidized industries that siphon money into the hands of the already rich at the expense of taxpayers, increasing inequality and disempowering individuals. I don't think any of them qualify as a 'need'. Production processes can take years to set up, and I agree complex is necessary, I'm not sure large is.
(DIR) Post #AijATtLTUgSTGX9kTw by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T19:33:57.091935Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun Now you're proposing a fantasy world where capitalism obeys your rules and you determine what is necessary or not instead of letting the market be free. And that we should only do things at scales you approve of? This is nonsense.We're not here to discuss the ethics of the situation or what the most ideal world would be, but the mechanics of the reality we live in.These projects operate at these scales and use these funding models. This is their legal right. It's how it works and how it will continue to work until different laws, regulations, or auditing / risk management / insurance conditions change
(DIR) Post #AijCGJDih81pMyBDrE by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T19:37:54Z
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@feld @FluentInFinance @sun right, and I'm saying that those funding models and scales are unsustainable and ultimately conflict with goals of addressing climate change. Yes, laws, regulations, auditing, risk management and insurance conditions will change. From my first post I have been saying that current funding models are dependent on insurance conditions that do not exist anymore and our risk management is not properly addressing modern risks. The fantasy world is that we can continue to practice in a business as usual manner.
(DIR) Post #AijCGK0zjvRZpnEZf6 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T19:53:57.781058Z
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@thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun The new funding model is the old funding model, not some paradigm shift. That's why we are seeing dividends again.Insurance won't change as much as you think, they'll just throw more compute at data to assess risk https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/META/pressreleases/23798157/
(DIR) Post #AijDmAupCt3Ypk6JQO by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T19:55:25Z
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@feld The funding model does not predate the unsustainable business practices.
(DIR) Post #AijDmC5qpNTEUEGdFY by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T20:10:53.564469Z
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@thesquirrelfish I think you misunderstand my meaning hereThe unsustainable business practices will end. But that doesn't negate the need for long term / large CapEx projects.Companies using unsustainable funding models will fail and/or be acquired by industry giants. A period of mergers, acquisitions, and consolidations will take over. Cheap money will end the VC funded tech unicorn bonanza.The giants (in tech, think: IBM, Oracle, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft) will continue to lumber on. They will issue dividends. Instead of their stock being used as a casino they'll work to acquire institutional investors, pension funds, etc and go through a period of slow but stable growth. Getting these investors is how they will fund their long term CapEx projects.Hope this makes sense
(DIR) Post #AijFz1G6cb7iYZJ6TA by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T20:30:08Z
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@feld yes, I think I understand your position. I disagree. My position is that the industry giants will not lumber on because advertising, for example, will cease to be a viable business model and there will be increasing risks to large CapEx projects. Those risks are decreased by decentralizing to many smaller more local projects. There's also increasing advantages for smaller and more flexible distributed manufacturing. Many of the efficiencies of large scale projects come from externalizing costs, and I think any system that continues to tolerate externalized costs for the profit of corporate giants will be unable to address climate change in any meaningful fashion.
(DIR) Post #AijFz1pYUnToKVtPiy by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T20:35:42.142618Z
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@thesquirrelfish > I think any system that continues to tolerate externalized costs for the profit of corporate giants will be unable to address climate change in any meaningful fashion.What does this mean? Corporations are not going to take any proactive steps to address climate change, especially if it reduces shareholder profits. That's an instant shareholder lawsuit. They have a fiduciary duty. We just need to hope that the clean/green options scale up fast enough that it's cheaper than the status quo, which is possible in many situations.
(DIR) Post #AijHZ2FAXMDlzSbfCy by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T20:49:13Z
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@feld exactly. As long as we hold shareholder value as a value primary over externalized impacts we will not be able to meaningfully address climate change. This is why some people support a carbon tax in order to at least make it a financial consideration, although I don't think that will be sufficient.
(DIR) Post #AijHZ3T1zIu5mk6FSC by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T20:53:20.312471Z
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@thesquirrelfish "some people" is the Supreme Court, thoughhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_v._W._J._Howey_Co.
(DIR) Post #AijILwgzxs2kxmwhX6 by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T21:02:13.100535Z
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@thesquirrelfish "some people" is the Supreme Court, though. We have some precedent here that shareholder value is taken seriously by the courts.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revlon,_Inc._v._MacAndrews_%26_Forbes_Holdings,_Inc.
(DIR) Post #AijOWE2QvauPNgFyy0 by thesquirrelfish@sfba.social
2024-06-08T21:17:25Z
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@feld again, laws will need to be changed. Obviously, business as usual practice has been unable to address climate change. I am expressly stating that the current financial & regulatory system is creating additional climate change that makes retirement planning increasingly unpredictable. The longer we fail to make systemic changes including regulatory & legal changes the worse climate change will get and the fewer outputs, including both material & profits & dividends will be available to be dispersed.
(DIR) Post #AijOWEtxiZj83hIjOy by feld@bikeshed.party
2024-06-08T22:11:17.719477Z
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@thesquirrelfish > I am expressly stating that the current financial & regulatory system is creating additional climate change that makes retirement planning increasingly unpredictable.Yes, but there is no legal requirement for retirement planning to be predictable.> The longer we fail to make systemic changes including regulatory & legal changes the worse climate change will get and the fewer outputs, including both material & profits & dividends will be available to be dispersed.re: fewer outputs -- I shouldn't believe this to be true. Companies still have plenty of runway ahead of them to keep destroying the planet and make a hefty profit. If climate was affecting their business they'd be taking swift action to save their business and their profits. They're really not feeling the pain yet so the incentives are not there.I'd like to explore this further if you're interested. What specific legal changes do you propose to fix this?