Post AiYgtbaFDL0FVBoJBA by Loukas@mastodon.nu
 (DIR) More posts by Loukas@mastodon.nu
 (DIR) Post #AiYgtWhVMuq8MGAXIm by Loukas@mastodon.nu
       2024-06-03T16:29:56Z
       
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       The conclusion I draw from the decision of Farage to stand is he recognises the Tories are going to be utterly destroyed and he wants to be around to benefit after the election. Ipsos pollster Kieran Pedley says "2 highly significant consequences of Farage return: 1) Problem for Cons is even if Reform vote doesn’t grow it’s much harder to squeeze. Status quo v. bad for Cons. 2) Wider consequence for election is if the role immigration plays grows & what does that mean for all parties."
       
 (DIR) Post #AiYgtY7Q63ACkvIkKm by Loukas@mastodon.nu
       2024-06-03T16:31:49Z
       
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       I think we could even get a situation in UK like in many other European countries where the far-right becomes the new main right-wing party. This could happen even under FPTP if the conservatives are destroyed and labour are huge but unpopular. Reform would pick up lots of defectors and by-elections during the labour government.
       
 (DIR) Post #AiYgtZJVeaQcShxuoi by Loukas@mastodon.nu
       2024-06-03T16:32:51Z
       
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       Either way, the second point is crucial. The far-right is determined to keep focus on immigration and other fascistic talking points. The problem is that Labour, Conservatives and the media will probably go along with this agenda.
       
 (DIR) Post #AiYgtbaFDL0FVBoJBA by Loukas@mastodon.nu
       2024-06-03T16:37:47Z
       
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       The main hope the conservatives have is that Reform can't split off enough of the business elite and political class so the new party collapses because of a lack of quality and competence.