Post AdMPnqSPvWxJVJHF7A by waffles@mastodon.nl
(DIR) More posts by waffles@mastodon.nl
(DIR) Post #AdLjvxiWcg8cGI01xI by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-30T22:58:12.809571Z
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There's a group of military experts who feel obliged to have a strong opinion on today's bombing of Belgorod. It usually goes like "okay, if we condemn Russia for attacking civilian objects, then we should also condemn Ukraine per the same rules". The mistake here is in mixing two moral systems:* one based on international humanitarian law, proportionality and protection of civilians* one based on pre-modern rules of excessive retaliation#Russia has removed itself from the first system in April 2014, when it started an extremely brutal war in Donbas #Ukraine where its troops with removed insignia routinely performed extrajudicial executions of civilians. Russia has confirmed its removal when it denied shooting down MH17, and it cemented this removal when it continued extrajudicial executions in Kyiv oblast' in March 2022, and then publicly announced its intention to freeze Ukrainians and Europeans to death. That has been said and it cannot be unsaid after they have notoriously pounding Ukrainian civilian infrastructure for two years. It cannot be unsaid when they fired dozens of imprecise S-300 rockets on Ukrainian towns on 29 December, and then repeated it today in Kharkiv.It's obvious that the 29 December attack was a retaliation on Ukrainian society for successful operations of Ukrainian army: downing total 5 Russian aircrafts and sinking one large ship. Russian weren't able to find an equivalent military target so they just hit anything they could — that is towns, because they don't move. They did exactly that last year after Kerch Bridge was damaged and they publicly explained that the hits on civilian infrastructure are a retaliation for the bridge.Russians have been largely playing the war by the tribal rules simply because they know it better — the informal morality has long ago first amended and then practically replaced the formal system of laws in their civilian life.Ukrainians have been mostly sticking to the formal rules — there haven't been any "retaliatory strikes" declared by Ukraine following even the most hideous Russian war crimes, probably because the widespread belief was that it's not what works. The rational logic suggests that what matters is the destruction of your enemy's military potential and sinking of "Novocherkassk" will be more painful than destroying a roof on one Kremlin tower (2022).But rational logic applies to rational players, that is those working by modern rules. But Russia doesn't. Or, more precisely, it flexibly switches between pre-modern and modern rules whenever it suits her. This is precisely why Russia responded to Kerch bridge attack with "retaliatory strikes" on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and this is why it attacked civilian targets after " Novocherkassk". And then happily switched back to quasi-legal haggling about "Ukrainian anti-air" in UN Security Council yesterday, only to completely forget this narrative today on the same tribune.My interpretation of today's alleged Ukraine's hits at Belgorod were intended to sober up Russian political and military command and signal them that whatever game they're playing, it can eventually take two players. It's a reminder that while Ukraine has been so far withholding from applying the rules of excessive retaliation, it can, if necessary.While many Western commentators interpreted this as unnecessary escalation, I would like to remind everyone that Russians had been unnecessarily escalating the war since day one. And they did so exclusively because they hold an immutable belief in their own impunity. Judging from the reactions on Russian military channels, at least the medium layer understood the message perfectly well.
(DIR) Post #AdMPnqSPvWxJVJHF7A by waffles@mastodon.nl
2023-12-31T00:01:26Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@kravietz well said.
(DIR) Post #AdMQKcYMdv5jwBggUq by osma@mas.to
2023-12-31T00:20:32Z
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@kravietz All that said, It's not been shown thata) Ukraine wasn't targeting military logistics - Belgorod is a border town with a lot of it.b) the civilian casualties actually were what russia claimed - they're notorious for wild claims and exaggeration.
(DIR) Post #AdMQKdJrnJ5aJVucXQ by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-31T06:53:15.310017Z
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@osma100% agreed, which is why I wrote about "alleged Ukrainian hits". Russian MoD has also itself confirmed the missiles that landed in the town centre were downed by their air defense. That's the facts I think should be sufficient for those who use the "unnecessary escalation" argument.But the timing of Belgorod hits doesn't seem accidental — I think Ukrainians wanted to send a message whose meaning both sides understood very well, much better than we do.
(DIR) Post #AdMVGRsUtIUTRPvzpA by shuro@friends.deko.cloud
2023-12-31T07:44:55Z
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Why so many words?"If you do something we can do it too".Not the first time either.
(DIR) Post #AdMVSMh1zhQ4prFm3E by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-31T07:50:13.424460Z
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@shuroThat's obvious for anyone from Ukraine or Russia, but I see even some Polish experts completely don't get it — for them it's "an unnecessary escalation" 🤷♂️
(DIR) Post #AdMVU1GKdyGOwsYPEe by osma@mas.to
2023-12-31T07:32:45Z
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@kravietz I could buy Ukraine's strike planners having the agility to define a retaliatory strike in just a couple of days, but the question to ask would be, if they knew of an important, within reach military target, why didn't they strike earlier?Whereas I don't buy that russia has such agility (these terror strikes are planned at least a week in advance - consider the missile routing) nor that they have any such targeting intelligence.Propaganda agility is another thing though.
(DIR) Post #AdMWKpAsJjFgo3BHH6 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-31T08:00:30.991145Z
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@osmaI was thinking about the route planning too. The three Su-34 were downed on 22 December, which makes it exactly 7 days before the strike.Also the week routing schedule is a number voiced last year by I think Meduza investigation into Russian rocket operators in the context how ineffective their target selection process is, and you could expect Russians had improved it since, like they did many things. Then, both sides can hold a catalogue of "reserve" targets that are generally static and have routing predefined and ready to be executed at any time.In general, I don't think there are any physical or procedural constraints that would eliminate the most intuitive interpretations that both sides conducted what was equivalently to retaliatory strikes. Except of course Russia retaliated on civilians for military losses, while Ukraine retaliated for hits on civilians.Not that this interpretation has to be true, as we don't have any other evidence, but both sides must have been aware how these particular strikes will be interpreted.
(DIR) Post #AdMcFtUbQzRCTZRNcu by osma@mas.to
2023-12-31T08:42:24Z
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@kravietz The Novocherkassk strike was either such an opportunistic follow up, or the culmination of a very complex campaign where the S-400 hits across Crimea and the Su-34 downings were necessary preconditions. We're talking through Crimea to south coast!But speaking of Novocherkassk, look up the "proud" history of the Soviet Army in that city. I will believe the russians implementing false flag "retaliation" strikes before I believe Ukraine wasting precious missiles on civilian targets.
(DIR) Post #AdMcJh3TcPxz3mZ36u by tyarosh@mastodon.social
2023-12-31T08:58:54Z
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@kravietz Russia attacks civilians in Ukraine daily, but whenever their air defense fails and drops rockets on their civilians — everyone goes nuts and starts teaching Ukraine how to fight. Even now, we have air sirens across the whole country because of the russian aircraft targeting us.The world is deeply flawed if Ukrainian lives do not matter.
(DIR) Post #AdMcJjAdkksvcZvnYO by tyarosh@mastodon.social
2023-12-31T09:04:31Z
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After ten years of war, my mental state becomes quite unstable, so whenever I hear someone living in a safe place saying that Ukrainians must stand still and die to avoid “unnecessary escalation”, I become very aggressive.
(DIR) Post #AdMdSV4JeZ6CReihu4 by osz@norden.social
2023-12-31T09:19:35Z
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@tyaroshThat makes me so angry that I sometimes doubt many people's sanity. It's like there's an mass rape on the street. Some people walk past it and instead of helping, they tell the victim who is trying to defend themselves that she should stop, otherwise it would only make things worse and also violence is not a solution. I hope I'm not mistaken if almost everyone here would say that this is unimaginable. But apparently not in the case of what is happening in Ukraine.@kravietz