Post AcXz5ICBLUmOb55FgG by joaocosta@mastodonapp.uk
(DIR) More posts by joaocosta@mastodonapp.uk
(DIR) Post #AcXEFNzFyKdPbqLhRI by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-06T14:07:35.025937Z
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Watching the endless discussions after the perceived failure of #Ukraine summer offensive with reactions ranging from blaming (including victim blaming) and despair…Can lessons be learned from the summer campaign? Sure, lessons can be always learnedWas the offensive a failure? Was it a mistake? Were mistakes made in its course? Honestly, I don’t know. The more I read and hear, the less I’m inclined to judge.One reason is that some events can’t be judged ex post if there’s a high uncertainty about alternative scenarios.Some events just have a tendency to develop in one direction regardless of what you do.Can you imagine a situation where Ukraine HQ announces in May-June that the offensive is cancelled? I can’t. Even if every single rational calculation indicated it’s the most reasonable thing to do.That kind of happened in July, when HQ called off the “armoured fist” tactics and switched to “small mobile groups”.If he didn’t and concentrated all forces on one directioni, we may have been in a radically different reality today. Either one in which Ukrainian army reached Tokmak (very unlikely), or one in which it suffered losses on the minefields that reduced its combat capabilities to such an extent that it would be unable to beat Russian counter-offensive this autumn.Was “fortress Bakhmut” justified? I have no strong opinions on that, even though my close friend got killed there. If Bakhmut was surrendered earlier, we might have 20k strong “Wagner” assault groups in Avdiivka today. Or Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.By end of 2022 #Russia was in much worse situation after embarrassing retreats from Kyiv, Kherson and Lyman. There was some low-profile blaming and despair, but overall they regrouped and learned their lessons.I wish allies of Ukraine had the same resilience in crisis situations - and that’s precisely how I read recent Stoltenberg’s advice “we need to be prepared for bad news”. Don’t despair, just regroup and learn lessons. At the end of the day, Russia today controls less Ukraine’s territory than it controlled in 2022.
(DIR) Post #AcXz5ICBLUmOb55FgG by joaocosta@mastodonapp.uk
2023-12-06T21:07:07Z
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@kravietz The Ukrainian army is extraordinary. But there can't be a counteroffensive without proper ammunition supplies. It's that simple.NATO members are pathetically slow, incompetent, ineffective and have too many pro-Putin voices within. The big NATO boss, US, pull get itself together. Meanwhile, Putin is gathering autocracies together while business leaders in NATO members debate, negotiate and ping pong for months on end...🤷
(DIR) Post #AcXzhHxQg8sAraIjmS by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-06T22:59:16.478017Z
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@joaocostaThey are slow but that also has complex reasons. One is that the decision process in democracies is based on consensus. Establishing it is slow. Autocracies are much faster, but that includes decisions that are potentially deadly for them (like 24 February).Another reason is that the previous consensus was that there's not going to be any new war in Europe. That consensus is now being changed by 180°... and the above applies. But it had very concrete consequences, like absence of military reserves because everyone was like "let's spend money on schools instead".As for Putinverstehers in Europe, I agree and that's a phenomenon that my brain simply can't comprehend...
(DIR) Post #AcYhKU1s1hu1cqJYLw by raytraced@pnw.zone
2023-12-07T06:05:58Z
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@kravietz you say “i don’t know” a lot here, but what really matters is what is/isn’t probable because that is how decisions are made in an uncertain world. i think the ukrainians made well considered requests for the specific weapons that they thought would give them the best chance of success and they were mostly denied. their requests were inline with NATO doctrine, and the training they were given, so it is especially soft headed to criticize them for failing to execute a NATO offensive.
(DIR) Post #AcYiV4yzaZ135KaJGK by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-07T07:21:17.776481Z
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@raytracedAgreed, they stopped the "NATO doctrine" tactics right after the first series of armour losses at Orikhiv. This seemed sensible decision due to unprecedented density of minefields and Russian long-range anti-tank weapons (fired from Ka-52 helicopters). I've heard opinions back then that the key component missing from the point of view NATO doctrine was aviation and nobody can blame Ukrainian army for not having a weapon they were not given.Another point of criticism was running the offensive of three directions rather than one, and fierce defense of Bakhmut, which has fallen anyway, with huge losses on both sides (my close friend died there in April). These are the points where I cautiously claim the "I don't know" card, because there's a lot of possible counterarguments and alternative scenarios. E.g. what if "Wagner" force was not largely depleted in Bakhmut, and what if Russian forces were not engaged by fighting on the two other directions in addition to Orikhiv?
(DIR) Post #AcYmtOn3zneRHerBku by joaocosta@mastodonapp.uk
2023-12-07T07:31:21Z
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@kravietz Context and excuses are all well and good for analysing what's happening. However the fact on the ground is that #NATO - in theory the largest and wealthiest military alliance in the world - is struggling to compete against a decadent, isolated russian federation, whose economy is tens of times smaller.It's been nearly two years, and NATO members - with the exception of Poland - are still not on a European war footing. They're asleep at the wheel, and dictators are taking advantage
(DIR) Post #AcYnL3c2KOqzi5t6Aa by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-07T08:15:30.048111Z
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@joaocostaI can only agree here...
(DIR) Post #AcYyjXYfk0Xp1zBuAS by karelhavlicek@c.im
2023-12-07T08:59:21Z
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@kravietz, @joaocosta, I agree too 🙂 I propose #we (the three of #us and #others) shall do more than #WhatAreWeDoingHere = 🎺 🚀 👍.https://c.im/@karelhavlicek/111538131910215918Also, @kravietz, would you help us with the Ukraine Front Daily Project (#ufd) at @ufd . One day a week? Or even less? 🙂
(DIR) Post #AcYystsE8soQqaniAi by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-07T10:24:50.832370Z
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@karelhavlicek Sure, I would be honoured to help!@joaocosta @ufd