Post AasRMhHtLPHLi2Qw6K by dontreportme@mastodon.online
(DIR) More posts by dontreportme@mastodon.online
(DIR) Post #AasLXqwlAlKB7wUA9Q by MattHodges@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T19:29:40Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
One year ago today Bloomberg published the "100% chance of recession within year" forecast that never happened
(DIR) Post #AasLXrtFfI723LqsK0 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-17T22:54:10Z
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@MattHodges Huh? Seems we are well within the starts of a recession... some points:* Unemployment is 10% higher under Biden than it was under Trump the day before COVID.* The US dollar inflation rate was 3x lower under trump the day before COVID-19 than it is today (~2.2% vs the current 6%).* The buying power of the US dollar has decreased by 20% since the day before COVID-19 and today.Yes all of these indicators suggest the recession has already begun... it may or may not get worse.
(DIR) Post #AasNWDjdfttL8JhJXU by MattHodges@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T23:16:19Z
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@freemo Every single stat you just claimed is wrong.
(DIR) Post #AasNyvCtdnLU4E4Id6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-17T23:21:29Z
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@MattHodges All of the numbers I gave were directly fromt he published numbers of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you feel you have a more reliable source or can debunk that particular source feel free... simply saying something is wrong, however, does nothing to advance the discussion.
(DIR) Post #AasOBInFlzAKh5yfHk by MattHodges@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T23:23:40Z
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@freemo Okay, let's start with the unemployment rate...https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
(DIR) Post #AasOHUiaLlb7PokMK0 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-17T23:24:51Z
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@MattHodges Right, te day before the lock down it was at 3.5, today it is at 3.8 If you do the math that is a ~10% increaseSo check, that one is confirmed true, next.
(DIR) Post #AasOto3ctYc0OprCLo by MattHodges@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T23:31:47Z
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@freemo Ah, I see we're doing noun gymnastics. In that case, you said "Unemployment is 10% higher" which, of course, it is not. The rate is 10% higher than itself. But you didn't say rate. But, again, we're doing word gymnastics to misrepresent a point. Sure, fine, 3.8 is roughly 110% of 3.5. It's also irrelevant to the question of a recession, because 3.8% unemployment is a fantastic unemployment rate. It literally cuts against the argument of a recession.
(DIR) Post #AasPg2opJeyQ54w72O by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-17T23:40:31Z
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@MattHodges Ah, I see we’re doing noun gymnastics.LOL, no.. I am a professional Data Scientist… I am talking about these numbers in the correct way. In that case, you said “Unemployment is 10% higher” which, of course, it is not.No, please stop talking nonsense… Literally the number of people who are unemployed has increased by 10%, exactly what I said. It would be highly inaccurate to say it any other way. The rate is 10% higher than itself.Yes which is exactly what I said, that unemployment increased by 10% since before covid. But, again, we’re doing word gymnastics to misrepresent a point.No thats what your doing, I am using the technically correct terminology to describe a change in a population. Sure, fine, 3.8 is roughly 110% of 3.5.Or more correctly “represents a 10% increase”, which was what I said. It’s also irrelevant to the question of a recession, because 3.8% unemployment is a fantastic unemployment rate.Yes 3.8% is good, a recession however is relative, a 10% increase is certainly what you’d expect early on in a recession. In and of itself it would be nothing to stress too much over, other than indicating a recession is forming.You are also picking out one indicator among many, an inflation rate that is 3x higher and a 20% drop in buying power all make it quite clear a recession is at hand… the increasing unemployment supplements that fact (though on its own could be dismissed).
(DIR) Post #AasRMhHtLPHLi2Qw6K by dontreportme@mastodon.online
2023-10-17T23:59:24Z
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@freemo @MattHodges Ok you two. Surely we can all agree that Biden did a phenomenal job responding to the global pandemic on an economic basis. Am I right?
(DIR) Post #AasRcD3zU7lMbVKPzc by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T00:02:12Z
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@dontreportme He could have done worse... phenomenal doesnt describe how he performed IMO though. I think to many it may simple feel that way because he is following trump, which would make anyone look better.@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AasRgq0MdwOOXMq4ga by Alphakilopapa@noagendasocial.com
2023-10-18T00:03:06Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AaskfwVEteWpWuZDyS by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-18T03:35:47Z
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@freemo @MattHodges OMG!! Time to head for the bunker!
(DIR) Post #AaslW6lhyTHwQV92dU by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-18T03:45:13Z
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@freemo @MattHodges On an annual basis, unemployment has only been lower four times since 1952, and one of those four year's was Biden's. Give it a rest.
(DIR) Post #AasleeCFZbqGQ0dCwy by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T03:46:45Z
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@Doppelganger75 And the other year was Trump... So not sure how well that accomplishment might serve him.@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AasnW2XButNHCdRwoa by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T04:07:36Z
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@Doppelganger75 @MattHodges Huh no one said anything about heading to the bunker or the end of the world.. its just a small (and possibly soon to be large) recession.. no need to be hyperbolic about ir.
(DIR) Post #Aasw4sUg2R67pbOfE8 by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-18T05:43:34Z
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@freemo @MattHodges Sorry, but we've been hearing these predictions from so-called experts for nearly three years now... even longer if you count what Trump said would happen to the economy if Biden was elected. Sooner or later the naysayers will be right, of course, but it's mostly just wishful thinking by disappointed conservatives who hate to see Biden succeeding.
(DIR) Post #AaswIddi3yA1odBQES by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T05:46:02Z
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@Doppelganger75 What prediction.. we are talking about the recession we are **in*** we are talking the present, not the future.. Obviously is possible it will get wose inteh future, but that depends on oo many factors to blame anyone or anything... But the fact is, we are in a recession now.. so if youve been hearing it for a while, i guess now you know they were right and its confirmed (per the numbers I stated)... lets just hope it gets better and not worse.@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AaswtwSh2qh0uGomga by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T05:52:47Z
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@Doppelganger75 Right.. having the highest inflation rate ever seen in nearly 50 years, not to mention one of the most significant drops in buying power over the last 50 years as well... He didnt just do bad, he did worse by most metrics than anything weve seen in 50 years, at least in terms of strength of the US dollar.And for the record you are the only one here who cares enought o attach it to a president at all.. I mean yea, president biden did a horrible job overall, but so did Trump.. I have no love or preference for either... nah im just an old guy who cares about numbers and data and think Bidens look about the same as Trumps, he was far from impressive and the economy is limping along with him in charge. 6x increase in invlation rather and a 20% drop in buying power... we havent seen numbers that bad in a long time.@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AaszJKaOgkAosHeia8 by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-18T06:19:47Z
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@freemo @MattHodges Inflation has been a global problem resulting from the pandemic, as you know. I don't blame that on Biden, just as I didn't blame Trump for 13% unemployment during 2020. There are plenty of reasons to despise Trump, but that isn't one of them. My preference for Biden at the present time is driven mostly by the current crop of neo-fascist alternatives.
(DIR) Post #AaszelkGuEjzBlUrz6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T06:23:37Z
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@Doppelganger75 Yea, biden has always only ever stood a chance when he played the game where everyone is voting for "Trump" vs "Not Trump".. and considering how obnoxious trump is thats a pretty smart way to manipulate people to get power of them, so its not surprising he plays that card either,The biggest thing biden has going against him is if he goes up against a moderate instead of trump... someone where he would have to actually be judged on his own merrit... if that happens he wont srand a chance.Good luck finding a moderate on either side of the isle these days@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #Aat13Uu6l6Wo9MS9Ka by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-18T06:39:19Z
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@freemo @MattHodges I don't disagree with you there, but your interpretation of the numbers reminds me of when I was learning to fly and would constantly correct for every little bit of turbulence. Eventually I learned to ignore most "bumps". There are always ups and downs, and most correct themselves without input. But then again, I'm an optimist and who am I to fault you for thinking otherwise?
(DIR) Post #Aat1L48yzUUWMqmuCu by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-18T06:42:30Z
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@Doppelganger75 @MattHodges Nothing wrong with that view. Look we have recessions all the time, the fact that we are in, with some of the worst numbers weve seen in 50 years is ubfortunate. That said it, like many recessions, is not going to be the end of the world. Its just important we recognize the rrcession for what it is
(DIR) Post #Aaukz7uR6IowiyQ7GK by djsumdog@djsumdog.com
2023-10-19T02:48:37.926655Z
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You .... you do realize they changed all the numbers and formulas to redefine what a recession was .. and what inflation was ... like have you seen housing and unemployment? Like, do you not understand how insanely bad our economy is right now?
(DIR) Post #AbAC4beWPy1rbryK0W by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-26T13:32:52Z
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@freemo @MattHodges Still sticking to your recession story? You'll be right sooner or later, of course, especially if the Fed keeps raising interest rates, but the crystal ball might need some Windex. https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-growth-economy-release-report-today-e45b7240
(DIR) Post #AbAPIGOhXW8P98PlIG by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-26T16:00:58Z
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@Doppelganger75 Still trying to argue a narrative rather than objectively collect data and review I see....We listed multiple indicators last we spoke for one. and for another you are looking at GDP suprisingly narrowly (cherry picking fallacy)@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AbCpYlzAqhmusCvXoe by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-10-27T20:04:44Z
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@freemo @MattHodges Looks to me that you're the one who's cherry picking. GDP and unemployment rate (which held steady at 3.8% in September) are pretty much at the top of the list when it comes to leading economic indicators. Monthly inflation dropped back down a little in September, and falling gas prices tell me that this will likely continue in October too. That the economy is holding up so well is pretty amazing considering Fed tightening.
(DIR) Post #AbCtJTj4r5mFiOMPpo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-10-27T20:46:48Z
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@Doppelganger75 I cant see my original post anymore, but as I recall I listed three data points which are the GDP, inflation, and unemployment. I pointed out the GDP was not particularly horrible, while the other two values had a very suggestive rate.If i was cherry picking I would have left off the GDP@MattHodges
(DIR) Post #AczFNdG8cb1hlFB1vs by Doppelganger75@mastodon.world
2023-12-20T02:32:19Z
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@freemo @MattHodges What a shame... and you delivered it with such confidence too!