Post AarBi0b0xTYxFYYfh2 by macattackmicmac@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by macattackmicmac@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AaqC7PdUnq3ezXs9VQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-16T21:58:21Z
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Well put by Phillips O’Brien:“Even if he (Scholz) believed it—the idea of saying it out loud (and thus confirming to the Russians the value of their escalation-bluff policy) was misguided, to put it kindly. Its also a shame, and this points out the yin-yang of German aid. If Germany is generous in what it is handing over, it is also handing over aid one of the impact of which will be to make the war a longer and bloodier one.”#Germany #Ukraine https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-50-aid-avdiivka-thanks?r=1yxg0c&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
(DIR) Post #AaqCLPdrZs6P42ihaS by markstoneman@zirk.us
2023-10-16T22:01:14Z
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@anderspuck The same might be said for the US's approach to ATACMs. But I'm also reminded of what Clausewitz had to say about coalition warfare.
(DIR) Post #Aaqn22U79F502rmkLY by vgoller@nrw.social
2023-10-17T04:52:25Z
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@anderspuck Scholz is very careful. That was a good move in the beginnings of this war. Now it is too careful. In understand he wants to leave doors open for Putin to start negotiations, but I think this is unrealistic unzz zu im Ukraine has a major breakthrough anyway
(DIR) Post #AaqujaJXwhBL64YNUm by macattackmicmac@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T06:18:40Z
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@anderspuck While in general I think Scholz in general does too little too late, I'm not convinced that this is the case with the Taurus. It was reported that when a delegation went to Kyiv, they were asked about armored vehicles, air defenses, and spare parts. I am doubtful that the opportunity costs of delivering Taurus outway the benefits. 25% more long range missiles, compared to 50% more Patriot systems, Gepard or Marder etc.
(DIR) Post #Aar5aUeIjr4sPr8328 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-17T08:20:24Z
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@macattackmicmac Sounds like an excuse. The Storm shadow missiles have made a huge difference, and I think Kyiv would value more of that kind of capability very highly.
(DIR) Post #AarBi0b0xTYxFYYfh2 by macattackmicmac@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T09:28:59Z
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@anderspuck I think Kyiv values any capability highly, that is not in question. What I question is if you offered Kyiv a new patriot battery or 100 Taurus missiles that they would choose the latter. It's not like the surplus of Taurus missiles is large enough to ensure a stable long term supply. I am happy to admit that my understanding may be wrong, but I have yet to hear a coherent argument as to what Taurus additional advantage Ukraine gains through Taurus.
(DIR) Post #AarICZ3fza62XruyPI by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-17T10:41:41Z
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@macattackmicmac Taurus gives the ability to hit the Russian supply lines, most prominently in Crimea. That is necessary to win the war. The war cannot end if we do not provide offensive weapons to Ukraine.
(DIR) Post #AarRTkX7Ttn4e0xWmu by macattackmicmac@mastodon.social
2023-10-17T12:25:41Z
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@anderspuck But doesn't Ukraine already have that capability with storm shadow or are there other fundamental differences with the missiles. I am aware of the circular arguments that could be made (won't deliver till allies do, now they have it we don't need to). I feel like the public discussion regarding Taurus is outsized compared to its potential impact on the war.
(DIR) Post #AarRblrWQKQ35DKL5c by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-17T12:27:08Z
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@macattackmicmac It's about quantity. Ukraine has received limited numbers of Storm Shadows and Scalp. Taurus will give them the ability to do more of the same.