Post AaYXgTnOwtbChefYCu by johannes@toot.berlin
(DIR) More posts by johannes@toot.berlin
(DIR) Post #AZxMTbsV8ktgNf0ca0 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-20T11:05:50Z
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Is Ukraine going to run out of soldiers? In this video I address the question of how the losses are affecting the Ukrainian military. https://youtu.be/2BQm5tk8II4
(DIR) Post #AZxN20q6qBNJdvIKUC by lindamarie@toad.social
2023-09-20T11:12:06Z
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@anderspuck Thank you for expertly addressing another topic that really needed clarification. Btw, I really enjoyed your episode with Perun a month or so ago!😊
(DIR) Post #AZxSoEcDQP3S2TbqLo by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-20T12:16:38Z
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@lindamarie Thanks. Glad you liked it.
(DIR) Post #AZxTaqK0XLM8soGrQ0 by eigengott@mstdn.social
2023-09-20T12:25:34Z
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@anderspuck Very good explanation! I did a similar calculation earlier this year: draft of 10% of population, 100000 casualties per year -> 40 decades to go.Another line of reasoning: are there examples of wars since 1900 which ended due to running out of soldiers? Other resources (weapons, ammo, fuel, logistics) tend to run out way faster.
(DIR) Post #AZxaGkqDu12Lm0hwPY by sarahbeck@expressional.social
2023-09-20T13:40:10Z
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@anderspuck Great video as always. I have a question. You said in the video that the US estimated 180.000 wounded Ukrainian soldiers, but how are they counted? Do they count every tiny injury or is a wounded soldier someone who can't return to the front? If they count legs serious wounds then the numbers can easily cover the same people being wounded and returning multiple times.
(DIR) Post #AZxrrsLSfGsOyubbdY by oxpal@mastodon.coffee
2023-09-20T16:57:28Z
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@anderspuck 26% seems off. At the worst of WW2, the Soviet Union had a conscription of max 15%. And look at their 1941 population pyramid. That's way more draftable men. Now an estimated 1+ million likely draftees fled ... so drafting 25% looks unrealistic. Maybe 5%?! Ukraine isn't in a much better situation. Though they're under an existential threat, so will have more citizens willing to fight. But I think they generally have even less young people.
(DIR) Post #AZxtgGFi9UXZYtVP4i by josephwelch@mastodon.world
2023-09-20T17:17:55Z
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@anderspuck I did not know you had a Mastodon account until I started watching this video. Followed you on YT for a while now. Keep up the great work.
(DIR) Post #AZyCHjipLVnAqk8xjE by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-20T20:46:04Z
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@oxpal Five percent sounds like very few. I think more than one in twenty should have the physical fitness to serve in the military. What age groups are you considering?
(DIR) Post #AZyMkylRUuVpRRwvp2 by oxpal@mastodon.coffee
2023-09-20T22:43:39Z
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@anderspuck I'm not so much counting age groups, but comparing the historical numbers. If Russia only managed 15% during the desperation of WW2 - while having much more favorable demographics, then a third of that for the current case seems reasonable.
(DIR) Post #AZyje5eBo2rFhwF0Oe by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-21T03:00:11Z
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@oxpal It depends on what the bottleneck was in WW2. I am not arguing that Ukraine could mobilize all these people at the same time, but that they can replace losses over time.
(DIR) Post #AZymjmnh5fJsr75ulM by sarahbeck@expressional.social
2023-09-21T03:34:44Z
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@anderspuck Great video as always. I have a question. You said in the video that the US estimated 180.000 wounded Russian soldiers, but how are they counted? Do they count every tiny injury or is a wounded soldier someone who can't return to the front? If they count legs serious wounds then the numbers can easily cover the same people being wounded and returning multiple times.
(DIR) Post #AZzAf5h5ob26uAIhuq by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-21T08:02:55Z
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@sarahbeck That is one of the things that make these calculations so difficult. I think the americans are just applying a multiplication factor to the number of deaths. The Ukrainians are probably more thorough, trying to verify numbers based on drone observations etc.
(DIR) Post #AZzBhyT1F1AhJVem0m by Platform_Journalism@aus.social
2023-09-21T08:14:34Z
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@anderspuck Nice video, thank you. I like that you mentioned the question came from someone on Mastodon, so many creators act though this space doesn't exist.
(DIR) Post #AaYXgTnOwtbChefYCu by johannes@toot.berlin
2023-10-08T09:35:40Z
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@anderspuck Thanks! What the video ignores, however, is that you also need an economy to keep things afloat. For that you need workers, lots of workers. So there is a competition between the armed forces and other sectors. And there, a country like russia which is seveal times bigger is at a natural advantage. Therefore we need to keep pushing for Ukraine to get the necessary support _now_,m not in five years time.