Post AaYURh3b3uZlcrVCb2 by avlap2@mastodon.nl
(DIR) More posts by avlap2@mastodon.nl
(DIR) Post #AaXDUpidckVMfxNuHg by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-07T18:14:46Z
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I give a status on Ukraine's offensive in this video, and I reflect on Putin's decision not to have another wave of mass mobilization in Russia until after the presidential election in March. There is something ironic about the fact that election politics can interfere so much in military decision making in a dictatorship.#Ukraine #Russia https://youtu.be/Qmd-QG7Ve0E
(DIR) Post #AaXGQQZNUDzxNedzUW by Robert_R_Freitag_II@mastodon.social
2023-10-07T18:47:30Z
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@anderspuck I know that your analysis is consistent with every credible report that I have heard. But I still can't suppress my disgust that these Russian morons don't understand that it's coming all the same. Like they're just going to agree to pretend it won't happen and then agree to pretend to be surprised when it actually does.
(DIR) Post #AaXHQOc2rWytGVRN3I by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
2023-10-07T18:58:52Z
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@anderspuck It will be interesting to see how the non-existent rotation of soldiers will play out this winter. If the Ukrainians manage to cut off supplies, the Russian soldiers are going to be pretty unhappy when it's cold and dark out there in the winter months.
(DIR) Post #AaYURh3b3uZlcrVCb2 by avlap2@mastodon.nl
2023-10-08T08:59:19Z
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@anderspuck See https://mastodon.nl/@tatarigami_ua@bird.makeup/111189811310049050
(DIR) Post #AaYbR8Zfy0hcMKBm0O by tforcworc@todon.nl
2023-10-08T10:17:41Z
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@anderspuck recommend reading this https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B09QRPY3VB/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title
(DIR) Post #AaYivfojdOnZpJjyYi by darnell@one.darnell.one
2023-10-08T11:41:40Z
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@anderspuck Did Russia 🇷🇺 quietly mobilize over 300,000 men for combat‽ 👉🏾 Russia says 335,000 sign up to fight, no plans for new mobilisation https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vows-no-new-mobilisation-335000-sign-up-fight-2023-10-03/I wonder if the makeup of “new recruits” is a combination of #Wagner forces being absorbed & Russian prisoners‽
(DIR) Post #AaZIActcH5p9VQtCCW by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-08T18:16:32Z
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@avlap2 Thanks. I don’t think anything there contradicts what I say in the video. Definitely I am not predicting in imminent collapse.
(DIR) Post #AaZIVQLA9SlAe8gtay by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-08T18:20:21Z
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@tforcworc Why do you recommend that?
(DIR) Post #AaZIjyDuyIuvmsEqX2 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-08T18:22:50Z
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@darnell They claim very big numbers of volunteers, but I doubt they are even close to those numbers.
(DIR) Post #AaZJB7WYV4poS2tzk0 by tforcworc@todon.nl
2023-10-08T18:27:39Z
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@anderspuck has a lot of similar examples of politics and war campaigns interacting in unexpected ways...
(DIR) Post #AaZJIeMQoRDgJsl0IS by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-08T18:29:13Z
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@tforcworc Thanks. Yes, Lawrence Freedman always has interesting things to say.
(DIR) Post #AaZJmMt4LLoKoWC4u0 by tforcworc@todon.nl
2023-10-08T18:34:32Z
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@anderspuck I found it fascinating, though it stops just before current events. But still informative!
(DIR) Post #AaxC2pnTTBa6mr4nAW by clark@krigskunst.social
2023-10-20T06:58:57Z
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@anderspuck After Avdiivka and Kherson I can't wait for a new update. Is this still attrition? Are they doing a speedrun?
(DIR) Post #AaxFiOAesAqx8CQVzE by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-20T07:42:11Z
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@clark I probably won't have time to make a new video in the next week, even though I'd love to cover this. But the short version is that I think Russia's offensive on Avdiivka is a result of political pressure from Putin. It does not make military sense. And Ukraine's efforts in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are probably about ensuring as good positions as possible before the mud season.