Post AZaUu5lPfF3php2GFU by chowderman@universeodon.com
(DIR) More posts by chowderman@universeodon.com
(DIR) Post #AZWj9AB5mQSMH6YFfc by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-07T14:42:32Z
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To anyone wondering why the West is not making a big deal out of a drone hitting Romania, I have an explanation in this video. NATO believes they have a winning strategy toward Russia, and they don’t want to spoil that by getting distracted from winning. https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4#Russia #Ukraine #NATO #Romania
(DIR) Post #AZWjOMUUHdgso2s2gS by maxieq@mastodon.nu
2023-09-07T14:45:26Z
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@anderspuck It's kind of like Nord Stream I suppose. I mean, after the war started Nord Stream was such a liability. I think nobody cares much who blew it up - and everyone is kind of relieved the "issue" is gone.
(DIR) Post #AZWjYBpSmJKIdSMtQe by ekknappenberger@mastodon.social
2023-09-07T14:47:10Z
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@anderspuck yes! let ukraine grind the russian army into the dust. keep grinding, russia will never recover. we don't need the endless debates about who started world war 3 -- once russia has collapsed, china is left alone
(DIR) Post #AZWnF7bOfXtvqAx57o by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-07T15:28:37Z
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@maxieq Yes, that is my interpretation too. The last thing anyone wants is to say Russia did it, because then you’d have to do something about it.
(DIR) Post #AZWodo5gRvGSWKS9Qm by lindamarie@toad.social
2023-09-07T15:44:16Z
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@anderspuck 👍“…essentially, the message to Russia is that if you want our attention, then you have to attack NATO in a way that is absolutely totally obvious. The West is not going to give Russia the privilege of deniability. And if they keep on doing annoying stuff…we’re just going to ignore that and keep focusing on defeating Russia in the war…my expectation is that no matter what happens in the hybrid space, the West is simply not going to respond” If we don’t talk about it, it’s not working!
(DIR) Post #AZX5OiFjZRmrI8Xgiu by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-07T17:44:58Z
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@anderspuck Ummm…The West isn’t responding to hybrid warfare because it is winning by not getting directly involved and supporting Ukraine to victory?Do we think that Ukraine is on course for victory? It has made scant progress reclaiming territory, Russia maintains their war effort, the political risk of western support eroding continues and we still struggle to provide enough ammunition.
(DIR) Post #AZXG97GhtVP5jrlMye by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-07T20:52:25Z
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@chowderman I think Ukraine is on course to victory. And I think that is the general assessment in NATO too. There are probably some different visions of victory, but that is another story.
(DIR) Post #AZXGJkgMD4UIsFpewy by demi7en@infosec.exchange
2023-09-07T20:51:54Z
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@chowderman @anderspuck Caution and guaranteed Ukrainian victory (a must) aren't entirely exclusive positions. The AFU is grinding down russian capabilities at a steady pace and waiting for the ideal time and place to commit forces. While that happens the kremlin bunkerwanker gets weaker by the minute and who knows what's happening behind the scenes in that cesspool. The russki drone staining Romanian soil isn't hybrid but kinetic.
(DIR) Post #AZXGJlXB2gjrW4XqHQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-07T20:54:16Z
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@demi7en @chowderman Hybrid can be kinetic too. It’s more a question of how means and societal vulnerabilities are matched across sectors and domains.
(DIR) Post #AZY1crWBiJDvQIgq7k by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-08T05:42:47Z
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@anderspuck Different versions of victory 🤣The West is undoubtedly succeeding in not getting involved.Other than his initial, optimistic, dash for Kyiv, Putin seems to be on course for retaining Crimea and the other areas annexed, plus inhabitants.He is using the fight to consolidate his position of power, and those around him to increase their power and wealth (notably Shoigu and Kadyrov).He is using the fight to militarise his nation and people for future conquests.
(DIR) Post #AZY2Z3T5RSYNHUzJCq by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-08T05:54:53Z
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@anderspuck @demi7en Nordstream took out internal pressure to resume good relations with the West and selling gas. (Also a way to sow division in the West).Lobbing missiles and drones at Eastern Europe boils the frog and reduces confidence in NATO (which NATO seeks to avoid by refusing to acknowledge).
(DIR) Post #AZaUS50EtppFEnc4hc by demi7en@infosec.exchange
2023-09-08T21:46:52Z
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🤔 That's just about the most optimistic kremlin wishlist for 2024.I think the kremlin bunker resident might have to give these goodies a pass and the best he can hope is being alive this time next year.I'm quite certain he avoids all windows (bunkers are great for that). Does he ever change his underpants? Based on the well documented obsessive 'distancing' at least not very often, but never...?@chowderman @anderspuck
(DIR) Post #AZaUS6RvWNZDixZhUu by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-09T04:15:52Z
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@demi7en @chowderman Yeah, this was supposed to be a quick war and a great victory for Russia where they once and for all settled the Ukraine problem and put an end to NATO expansion. I think it’s a mistake to portray the current situation as a success for Putin.
(DIR) Post #AZaUS7BInfrZzgnwDw by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-09T04:55:16Z
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@anderspuck @demi7en It is important to differentiate between a success for Putin and one for Russia. I don’t see anyway that Russia is better placed, but what does Putin care?Ukraine isn’t entering NATO and anyway, it never was about NATO.Nor does Putin failing to reach all his initial objectives mean a victory for Ukraine.Ukraine has lost a lot, currently it would have been better if the West had never encouraged Maidan (or Ukraine had kept nukes).
(DIR) Post #AZaUS8Qw91xnsT7wES by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-09T05:06:17Z
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@chowderman @demi7en Maidan was not orchestrated by the West…
(DIR) Post #AZaUu1mgSZhVMbbDfs by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-09T05:25:57Z
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@anderspuck @demi7en Anders, I didn’t write that Maidan was orchestrated by the West, that is just Russian propaganda.Nuland did however famously hand out cakes (and more) which I think counts as encouraging. I did however write “the West” and that was wrong, apparently the EU never wanted to encourage Ukraine away from Russia’s orbit, although the US did…https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26079957
(DIR) Post #AZaUu2gL7eDi9DdfQO by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-09T05:48:10Z
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@chowderman @demi7en I think the effect of that encouragement was negligible. Unless of course the EU engaging seriously with the Yanukovich administration about a trade agreement counts.
(DIR) Post #AZaUu3SCFiV8Xe1t1E by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-09T06:02:29Z
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@anderspuck @demi7en Did you read the transcript with BBC commentary that I added to my post?We can’t know what would have happened in 2O14 if the US hadn’t been active. However it seems only moral that they should have kept their noses out in 2014 or properly supported Ukraine (that would have been my preferred option).
(DIR) Post #AZaUu4nrEfQEj7AhQ8 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-09T06:16:42Z
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@chowderman @demi7en I read it quickly. But I don’t think it’s surprising that the diplomacy worked overtime to push all kinds of buttons. The question is how big effect it had.
(DIR) Post #AZaUu5lPfF3php2GFU by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-09-09T06:50:59Z
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@anderspuck @demi7en One assumes that the USA wouldn’t have been pushing those buttons unless they thought it would have a significant effect - right? 🤔