Post AZU1QO2AjRbPs9rUdk by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #AZHsREz8rM4v1AmWoa by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T10:46:08Z
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Russia is in a spiral of escalating repression, but it is nevertheless noteworthy when milestones are being passed. That happened with Prigozhin's plane crash and the arrest of Girkin. With these events, Putin has redefined the rules of how politics are done in Russia. That is my topic in this video.https://youtu.be/qXaEYZbUQhU#Russia #Ukraine
(DIR) Post #AZHtc5FFVuI5wt39to by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-08-31T10:59:15Z
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@anderspuck oh no! Do you have covid?
(DIR) Post #AZHtzdqz0PyrwhvuPg by kcarruthers@mastodon.social
2023-08-31T11:03:34Z
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@anderspuck hope you’re feeling better soon
(DIR) Post #AZHu3VZDkyNPP7T732 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T11:04:18Z
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@Loukas I don’t think so. I took a test, and it was negative. I also don’t have the same smell disturbances that I’ve had with Covid before. So my guess is it’s something else.
(DIR) Post #AZHu9IisQMPbJ1kORM by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T11:05:14Z
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@kcarruthers Thanks. Me too. 🤒
(DIR) Post #AZHuDFMgqnEu3AFdNA by kcarruthers@mastodon.social
2023-08-31T11:06:04Z
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@anderspuck but our good luck it gave you time to make a video 🤣
(DIR) Post #AZHuRhcyZEebl8lI9Y by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-08-31T11:08:39Z
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@anderspuck well thank you for isolating and sparing us any infection. Which ship is that a model of?
(DIR) Post #AZHv7uL3hMIVLPVR3Y by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T11:16:19Z
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@Loukas Not sure. But it is Hotel Lord Nelson, so I guess it has something to do with him.
(DIR) Post #AZHvvvmEcnb0Hh4QRU by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-08-31T11:25:18Z
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@anderspuck there's also a lady Hamilton Hotel in gamla stan (Nelson's mistress).
(DIR) Post #AZHw187e9W3A1LZ4WO by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-08-31T11:26:13Z
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@anderspuck Thank you Anders.You finish by saying that you don’t think a “Great terror” will work for Putin.It did for Stalin.Could Putin be coming to terms with him not being able to sell his exit from Ukraine as a victory and protecting his position in that circumstance?In other words, young men won’t be asked to fight for Putin, they will stay in Russia?
(DIR) Post #AZHwcZtPriMIrclUiO by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T11:33:03Z
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@anderspuck Very good analysis. Yes, I did notice the individual actors who followed the usual script and then went silent. Peskov (after he reappeared from his rubber hose massage for insinuating that the elections in Russia are rigged) went out with various statements about the downing of Prigozhin's plane and then nothing.Putin is definitely building a cult of personality, just like Xi has been doing since he got into power. Well, neither of them will stay in power forever.
(DIR) Post #AZHy4BveejQYbUXjZQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T11:49:14Z
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@Loukas Haha, I will have to try that next time.
(DIR) Post #AZHzsE4L4bZ7fs1kS8 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T12:09:30Z
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@chowderman I doubt it. Getting out of the war would require enormous compromises that I don’t see Putin being able to make. The problem is that the war as is, is also unsustainable. So the only workable solution I can see for him is to try to freeze the war along the current frontlines.
(DIR) Post #AZHzuLXyF26dRhtlKK by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T12:09:40Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas Come on, a sailor should choose Mälardrottningen (https://malardrottningen.se/en/malardrottningen-eng/). The cabins are probably smaller than the hotel room at Lord Nelson, but hey... You're on the water. I stayed there for a week a couple of years ago. It's a great location for tourists, because of its proximity to the Royal Castle, Gamla Stan and all the other tourist traps. 🙂
(DIR) Post #AZI3RJ1QwuhX2B5TQu by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-08-31T12:49:07Z
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@anderspuck Freezing the war would be ideal for him, but the enemy gets a vote.One gets the impression from Russian media that they are either praying for a Republican victory in the US election or dropping a nuke to force concessions, I am not sure how realistic either of those is. Dropping a nuke would be something within his control, the consequences for him could be outside his control.
(DIR) Post #AZI6O8sWVTE6ZG6QNM by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-08-31T13:22:28Z
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@anderspuck so basically Putin is stuck.Combining your assessment with Vlad Vexler's, it seems that there is no way forward for Putin. The depoliticised blob will stay depoliticised. The ultra-nationalist will either join the blob and pay lip service. Or disappear.I suppose everybody will just to the minimum that they can get away with.
(DIR) Post #AZIA1V1UPIJgP7ks9Q by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T14:03:09Z
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@t_mkdf Or we will see the system stop working at some point. I don’t think it’s easy to make these ultranationalists resign, but they may keep a low profile for a while.
(DIR) Post #AZIAR1A23Z99Jjv26S by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-08-31T14:07:41Z
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@anderspuck @t_mkdf What I'm worried about is that the apolitical Putin regime will act as an incubator for the real fascists who will follow him. The nationalists will get a schooling in both oppositional politics and war because of their ambiguous status and will become more schooled the longer the war continues. Then they will take advantage of the next breach - or simply get themselves selected as the only possible political heirs within, say, United Russia.
(DIR) Post #AZIAnteu7COMi7Gi5g by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-08-31T14:11:58Z
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@anderspuck this is always a possibility. Stable until it's not.And Ukraine probably wants to induce a wee bit of chaos into the system.My conclusion is basically that it will all be just enough to continue. But not more. No true societal mobilization. Everything might become a bit Ceaușescu-esque. All is fine until it suddenly implodes. And nobody will acknowledge this moment until it already happened.
(DIR) Post #AZIBwrzbmLMA6UnNEe by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-08-31T14:18:01Z
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@Loukas @anderspuck well. It can always get worse. But it can also get better.And Putin with all his killings and invading other countries is so already so bad that we should not fear his or his regime's demise too much.
(DIR) Post #AZIBwsmArmCkX7W9w0 by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-08-31T14:20:42Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck I don't fear it, I'm just looking for the dangerous patterns so I can recognise them. The best way to avoid a fascist takeover is for Putin to fall as soon as possible. Appeasement would mean a longer incubation period.
(DIR) Post #AZIBwtmZ7o6zechzBQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T14:24:44Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf That is a good point that wherever Putin falls is the place that someone else takes over. The more repression there is at that point, the easier it will be to continue in that direction.
(DIR) Post #AZIdHCxgDx5jgwoeBc by Melody@masto.ai
2023-08-31T19:30:53Z
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@anderspuck “Hang Mike Pence” would have established similar norms stateside.
(DIR) Post #AZIjh2qR3nOzZL89OS by QuantumAspect@mastodon.social
2023-08-31T20:20:43Z
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@chowderman @anderspuck It is a mistake to believe that Putin has control over nuclear weapons. There are more people involved, who don't want to die for Putin's folly. And once they disobey Putin, they have no option than to get rid of him. Putin is no fool. He knows the consequences from within his own ranks and wil not even contemplate it.
(DIR) Post #AZIjh3j1mp4SIefkUC by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-08-31T20:32:35Z
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@QuantumAspect @anderspuck You make a valid point. We might imagine a big red button for Putin to launch a nuke, in reality there are multiple people in the chain.Anyone in or around that chain who wants to preserve their life, and those of their loved ones, can put a kibosh to anything that would elicit an overwhelming response.NATO should be safe. I wonder about a singular tactical nuke in Ukraine. I guess that depends on how strong our leaders are?
(DIR) Post #AZIjh4Qz9OEUUzEr0C by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T20:42:50Z
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@chowderman @QuantumAspect On the other hand, I think we should assume the Russian nuclear system works as intended. Assuming otherwise seems like basing your politics on a hope. Also, there are not nearly as many safeguards around nuclear weapons as many people think. We had this discussion continuously when Donald Trump was in the White House.
(DIR) Post #AZIjrOmOMVdIUiAzDs by QuantumAspect@mastodon.social
2023-08-31T20:43:06Z
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@chowderman @anderspuck If we make the people in the chain worried enough about the response to a singular tactical nuke, it won't happen.
(DIR) Post #AZIjrPhSwJHpLisZBQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T20:44:45Z
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@QuantumAspect @chowderman These people are handpicked for blind loyalty. I don’t think they would resist.
(DIR) Post #AZIjzVHc48t0yue0a8 by QuantumAspect@mastodon.social
2023-08-31T20:46:12Z
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@anderspuck @chowderman They are loyal as long as they themselves don't get hurt.
(DIR) Post #AZIl3Ytof9cfJF0q9o by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-08-31T20:56:24Z
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@anderspuck @QuantumAspect In which case, we either make the guy at the top of the chain afraid of using tactical nukes, or accept them as a normal weapon? (normal as in used against us, even if not used by us)Alternatively, we avoid the issue by removing support to Ukraine, in which case we normalise war to expand borders (normalise for others, even if we don’t turn to expansionism, although popular politics would probably see the practice widen).
(DIR) Post #AZIm69P80bmB3qSNrE by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-08-31T21:09:49Z
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@chowderman @QuantumAspect I guess we deter the guy at the top, then. 😊
(DIR) Post #AZJSzkluyUjGxMJR2m by osma@mas.to
2023-09-01T05:10:29Z
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@anderspuck The typical voices seem to be confused, except for Girkin who has gone to a new level of troll mode, but aside from them, are you also sensing a marked shift in general tone? I guess the explosions all around are getting to people. As they're designed to.
(DIR) Post #AZTyeac0Sr2D4ehhcu by thomasheg@mastodon.social
2023-09-06T06:52:14Z
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@anderspuck Super interesting thread you are having hear. About Russias potential use of tactical nukes The Jamestown Foundation recently had a panel of various experts, including fmr Gen. Ben Hodges. It debunked many myths that many folks may have about the topic. It was - somewhat- comforting.
(DIR) Post #AZU1QO2AjRbPs9rUdk by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-09-06T07:23:25Z
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@thomasheg Yes, I also think it's unlikely they will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. I think the risk is bigger if he is about to lose the power in Russia.
(DIR) Post #AZU22QIgkntduDiyky by thomasheg@mastodon.social
2023-09-06T07:30:12Z
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@anderspuck Yeah I found the explanations very well presented at that panel I think you may know some of them.