Post AZOSEQFRSaISqDM8Po by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
(DIR) More posts by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
(DIR) Post #AZOPZghHCNa84jp8k4 by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:24:56Z
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battery wow (from ft.com) "Production capacity at China’s battery factories is expected to reach 1,500 gigawatt hours this year — enough for 22mn EVs — more than twice demand levels, forecast at 636GWh, according to data from CRU Group, a research firm." https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fcastonishing to me. if used with solar panels, would make equiv of 250 nuclear plants just this year.or make 1/4 of all cars worldwide be electric cars just this year, and again, growing fast.est calc's below1/
(DIR) Post #AZOPyIxgaDQjhXEnBI by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:25:58Z
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my non-professional calc's:if all used in combo with solar panels to make a 24 hour source (say by making 6 hours of battery-powered energy each day to even out the solar's ups-and-downs shortfall (not worst case of cloudy days) (my guess)), then you get 250GW of power-plant-equv capacity for your grid each year (1500/6). That is the equiv of 250 nuclear power plants (1GW each, typically). So much for nuclear.2/
(DIR) Post #AZOPyKEjqIfHeiDvOq by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:27:24Z
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if used in cars we get a similar astonishing result, if that were enough for 22mn ev's this year, and in 2022 85million cars were made then worldwide TOTAL, then we are well on our way to only electric cars worldwide because the chinese battery production is due to go up to 4,000 GWh (3x+ current) by 2027.https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/3/
(DIR) Post #AZOQYAyHlhN7LQcfsu by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:28:40Z
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by comparison, "Tesla installed 6.5 GWhs of energy storage products in 2022". So how could china make 1,500GWhs of storage product this year?other sources seem to say china has a 10x battery production volume lead over the US: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-dominance-in-battery-manufacturing/wow. 4/4
(DIR) Post #AZORAYSKtvyBBXylVo by autiomaa@mastodon.social
2023-09-03T14:43:15Z
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@brewsterkahle It looks like there are a lot of hype over Tesla, compared to their actual (limited) production capacity.
(DIR) Post #AZORgYXw6JJ6jRrFgm by TomSwirly@toot.community
2023-09-03T14:48:52Z
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@brewsterkahle > That is the equiv of 250 nuclear power plantsBut nuclear is not what we are trying to get of. It is fossil fuel that already kills over eight million people a year.https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thoughtIt is fossil fuel plants we are trying to get rid of. It is fossil fuel emissions that will destroy our ecosystem.All my life the environmental movement has focused on nuclear, and meanwhile fossil fuels have destroyed our future.It shows a complete lack of a sense of perspective.
(DIR) Post #AZORxazmFT2BFb0Oh6 by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:49:02Z
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@autiomaa To Tesla's credit, they seem to be ramping steeply. (And I mean real credit to them, cuz we could really use innovative battery development and production.)https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/04/10/tesla-announces-megapack-stationary-battery-factory-eyes-2-3-twh-production-in-master-plan/
(DIR) Post #AZOSEQFRSaISqDM8Po by brewsterkahle@mastodon.archive.org
2023-09-03T14:53:27Z
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@TomSwirly I was using the "nuclear power plant" as size metric-- 1GW. (Not so much as a dig on nuclear. But the world is not making nuclear plants at volume at this point, and a critique of solar/wind is the need for batteries... this toot is about that current size of the battery production )If the world could stamp out solar/wind + battery plants at 250 per year (and growing fast), that is a lot. But again, this is must my non-professional calcs.
(DIR) Post #AZOSuZ2LArPqGGK4Gm by williamgunn@mastodon.social
2023-09-03T15:02:35Z
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@brewsterkahle This seems like something @gregor might have some insight on, or maybe @paul because he's generally good on macro stuff like this.
(DIR) Post #AZOdCyG38lifEm9PMG by PJ_Evans@mastodon.social
2023-09-03T16:57:45Z
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@brewsterkahle I don't believe Tesla's claims.
(DIR) Post #AZQdGZrw9GBN4SVnJQ by deightonrobbie@mastodon.green
2023-09-04T16:07:46Z
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@brewsterkahle or more than 100M motorcycles!
(DIR) Post #AZX8rbrIir89ilaJTU by skome@fosstodon.org
2023-09-07T19:30:17Z
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@brewsterkahleDon't want to be a wet towel but considering size trends in the US market, car makers will soak up battery capacity making EVs that have a similar or worse carbon footprint than ICE counterparts. Need more battery capacity, and also need them to go into _cars_ (or even better bikes etc) rather than F150s, SUVs, etc.