Post AYtAOU8P1FNdMCx0ls by earthworm@kolektiva.social
 (DIR) More posts by earthworm@kolektiva.social
 (DIR) Post #AYtAOU8P1FNdMCx0ls by earthworm@kolektiva.social
       2023-08-19T12:29:36Z
       
       0 likes, 1 repeats
       
       This month’s record, and the longer recent period of warmth, are driven by a collection of several man-made*  and natural factors acting together.- anthropogenic global warming- El niño/ la niña- Solar cycles- volcanic eruption of Hunga-Tonga- cleaner marine fuelsFirstly, man-made* global warming has been raising the Earth’s temperature by about 0.19 °C/decade (0.34 °F/decade). This is a direct consequence of the accumulation of additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide. This is the primary factor responsible for long-term warming.(Probably you know this already, but I liked especially the other factors, as there is often talk about them, but seldom these factors are compared...)(1/5)Source: https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2023-temperature-update/* note: usually I would edit the quote to avoid "man-made", but in this case it makes sense: most fossil executives and heads of states are and were proud ... dicks?#ClimateChange #ClimateScience #EarthClimate #SolarCycles #SolarCycle #MarineFuels #Volcano #HungaTonga #Climate #BerkeleyEarth
       
 (DIR) Post #AYtAOVCh2mPGfnxx68 by earthworm@kolektiva.social
       2023-08-19T12:31:27Z
       
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       However, global warming is a gradual process. It does not explain short-term spikes and fluctuations in Earth’s average temperature. The main reason for such spikes is internal variability in the distribution of heat and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. The largest and most well-known form of short-term internal variability is the El Niño / La Niña cycle originating in the Pacific. During the El Niño phase, global average temperatures tend to be slightly higher. As a result, record highs for global average temperature tend to be set during El Niño years. This year, a new El Niño officially began in June after a multiple year period of La Niña.(2/5)
       
 (DIR) Post #AYtAOWHh1g041bJSWu by earthworm@kolektiva.social
       2023-08-19T12:33:46Z
       
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       These two factors, global warming and El Niño, are the primary factors responsible for the present high temperatures. However, three additional factors are worth highlighting.Firstly, the solar activity cycle is still ramping up towards a peak in 2024 or 2025. Such cycles are a natural part of the dynamics of the sun and follow an ~11-year pattern. During the active phase, the associated modest increase in solar radiation can lead to slightly warmer conditions.(3/5)
       
 (DIR) Post #AYtAOXKD9nbnFhUz5s by earthworm@kolektiva.social
       2023-08-19T12:37:53Z
       
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       Further, the massive eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in January 2022 may be contributing to current warming and other weather effects. Unlike most volcanoes, the eruption of Hunga Tonga was rich in water vapor and low in sulfur. Usually, a large eruption results in a temporary period of cooling due to excess sulfur in the atmosphere, but the Hunga Tonga eruption may have contributed warming instead due to its large water vapor contribution.Hunga Tonga injected ~150 million tonnes of water vapor into the stratosphere. This is small compared to the atmosphere’s total water vapor content, but unusually large for the stratosphere. This eruption raised the water vapor content of the upper atmosphere by ~15%. This plume, which will take at least several years to dissipate, has been estimated by Jenkins et al. to warm the Earth by about +0.035 °C (0.063 °F). However, the magnitude of warming remains highly uncertain as does the possibility of more impactful regional variations.(4/5)