Post AY7Lg1LPgVono4pyUa by smari@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by smari@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AY5AV7BAACsuuBihjU by dymaxion@infosec.exchange
2023-07-26T06:33:15Z
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So, uh, anyone have links to realistic predictions of the impacts to infrastructure, weather, and supply chains implied in an amoc (gulf stream) shutdown?
(DIR) Post #AY5AV80v3mHjUhw2PA by rysiek@mstdn.social
2023-07-26T09:13:39Z
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@dymaxion cc @ecosophy maybe?
(DIR) Post #AY5AV93nAaB2juHqWO by ecosophy@mastodon.energy
2023-07-26T09:36:12Z
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@rysiek @dymaxion unfortunately, we don't have such projections on hand. There are studies that suggest that freshwater forcing has a harder time tripping AMOC than generally believed, and that the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre might pick up *some* of the slack - but without more direct simulations it's really hard to predict.
(DIR) Post #AY5LAKbAAtC5wIApI8 by ecosophy@mastodon.energy
2023-07-26T09:43:51Z
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@rysiek @dymaxion we would love to be able to run that kind of simulation, but right now it's beyond our infrastructure capability. However, if somebody runs that kind of simulation, we'd be happy to visualize the data in our public viewer.
(DIR) Post #AY5LALLxMucmHQ4CEC by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T10:41:08Z
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@ecosophy @rysiek @dymaxion I just did a first pass read of the AMOC Collapse paper. A few things stand out: - "The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time [is] 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095." - The model is largely stochastic, and based on very little data. (12 time indexes per year, 4 data points per index) - A single maximum likelihood indicator doesn't tell us much. - Not doubting the methods here; just saying, this needs much more modeling.
(DIR) Post #AY5LAMQFORePb158YS by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T11:00:40Z
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@ecosophy @rysiek @dymaxion The problem with relying on such a small set of SST estimates is that there are all sorts of things that can upset or fail to upset that dynamic. The paper (correctly) references CMIP6 data, and I think the general suggestion is that if this were modeled in MOM6 we'd get much more confidence. So ─ not complaining about the paper or methodology (heck, I don't know enough to critique it deeply), but will warn that this does seem preliminary at best.
(DIR) Post #AY5LANS3ZCgymuw60u by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T11:36:09Z
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@ecosophy @rysiek @dymaxion Other papers that may be of interest: - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00750-4 - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01328-2 - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2That last paper goes into some of the projected effects: "widespread cooling throughout the [...] northern hemisphere[...]; less precipitation in the [...]midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in [...] tropics and a strengthening of[...] storm track"... also, I recommend checking out the specific wording of C.3.4 in https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
(DIR) Post #AY5LIvk7xK41SRT0lM by satan@hell.social
2023-07-26T11:46:19.375Z
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@smari@mastodon.social @ecosophy@mastodon.energy @rysiek@mstdn.social @dymaxion@infosec.exchange Not going to lie, it got me really depressed yesterday when I saw it.To much doom and gloom based on a VERY LIMITED study.However, other studies have show that the AMOC have been reduced by up to 15% - and it might be reduced up to 45% until 2100 - which itself is really really bad
(DIR) Post #AY5LQ463IOELOR7lIm by satan@hell.social
2023-07-26T11:47:42.370Z
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@smari@mastodon.social @ecosophy@mastodon.energy @rysiek@mstdn.social @dymaxion@infosec.exchange I would love to se more reasearch and simulation about the consequenses, hopefully that can turn some oppinions in our governments...
(DIR) Post #AY7Lfz0QNZqCYP0BV2 by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T18:27:02Z
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@satan @rysiek @dymaxion @ecosophy yeah. I've seen some Serious Scientists™ panning that study though. And as I was trying to allude to without sounding overly critical, the study is based on *very* little data. Making such big predictions with so little data is bad form. More research is clearly needed, and this year is certainly shaping up to be a disaster, but it's not great if people go around making claims of this scale without overwhelming evidence.
(DIR) Post #AY7Lg1LPgVono4pyUa by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T18:32:42Z
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@satan @rysiek @dymaxion @ecosophy that said, it's only partially their fault - they're reporting 95% confidence intervals on a low-data, low-fidelity, marginally bounded stochastic simulation. Alarmist interpretation of that is predictable to people who are media literate, but scientists get way too little media training. If the year 2019 had been inside the 95% confidence interval, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
(DIR) Post #AY7Lg3MYBFus4BNuXg by smari@mastodon.social
2023-07-26T18:39:04Z
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@satan @rysiek @dymaxion @ecosophy also, I've seen some solid math that suggests that energy transference accounting of sea ice is underestimated by as much as petajoules per day, because the dominant sea ice models don't take into account the ridging/layering dynamics associated with plastic deformations of linear kinematic features of sea ice. That's a big enough discrepancy to make most models diverge from likelihood relatively quickly.