Post AXrZ1xLLILJFg4Z33I by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #AXrRQhB9jOKx9R5LhQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T18:48:52Z
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Will be interesting to see if #Russia will shoot on cargo ships in the Black Sea. Can we find some Chinese and Indian bulk carriers for these grain transports?From: @noelreportshttps://mstdn.social/@noelreports/110741379634696005
(DIR) Post #AXrRrXeRGMTpQ7aEMa by DrGeraintLlanfrancheta@mastodon.coffee
2023-07-19T18:53:43Z
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@anderspuck @noelreports sadly this will not happen. Tomorrow 00.00 all traffic halt due to non-assurance. Erdogan was all Bluff, the west will do nothing and continue to execute Sullivan/Chamberlain-esque 'escalation management' aka appeasement. We have still our diapers full.
(DIR) Post #AXrRyZjTvHZru1IPku by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-07-19T18:55:03Z
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@anderspuck @noelreports I was hearing on the Lawfare podcast that the main problem is without a grain deal no insurer will cover any ship making the run.
(DIR) Post #AXrVaHxYka9LeCYVKy by ifilipau@mas.to
2023-07-19T18:59:11Z
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@nieldk @anderspuck @noelreports They already had in 2022. Several times. Zero reaction from West. I expect the same reaction now too. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/two-cargo-ships-hit-by-explosions-around-ukraine-one-killed
(DIR) Post #AXrVaJ2uiA1j164IK0 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T19:35:24Z
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@ifilipau @nieldk @noelreports Those were not grain transports, though. They were caught outside the Ukrainian harbors and were unable to get away.
(DIR) Post #AXrViem9nwPSj8DE7U by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T19:37:02Z
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@Loukas @noelreports That is what Russia is betting on. But there should be ways around the insurance problem if there is political will.
(DIR) Post #AXrWnvSXIq39s86x7I by ifilipau@mas.to
2023-07-19T19:49:06Z
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@anderspuck @nieldk @noelreports What's the difference? The russia navy opened fire - there was at least one such case in int'l waters - ship sunk & people died. (Can't find article anymore.) West/etc swallowed it silently. Can't see why it would be different now. (Even the harassment and delays of grain transport ships by russian navy during the deal was barely (if at all) covered in our media.)
(DIR) Post #AXrXKtMA8rScuGqixc by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-07-19T19:55:07Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas @noelreports türkiye would be the country that needs to be convinced. And the only country in a position to ensure the safety of the grain transports.
(DIR) Post #AXrYIY2YWYesAd7nRw by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T20:05:50Z
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@nieldk @ifilipau @noelreports It is different because those incidents were from the early days of the invasion when Russia was actually patrolling the area with ships and enforcing a general blockade. Now they will be specifically targeting food transports, probably with aviation. It's not gonna look good among African leaders.
(DIR) Post #AXrZ1xLLILJFg4Z33I by VikingChieftain@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T20:14:02Z
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@anderspuck @noelreports It wouldn't be farfetched to ask the Chinese to carry grain because they'll most likely need to import even more wheat due to the failed wheat harvests in several of their provinces.https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/drenching-rains-seen-driving-china-wheat-imports-higher
(DIR) Post #AXrZShQIaqQe7ZdPxw by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-07-19T20:18:55Z
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@nieldk @ifilipau @noelreports It was enough to make him sign the grain deal a year ago. He might be more desperate now regarding the war, but it is wrong to say that this concern doesn't matter for him at all.
(DIR) Post #AXrbbEQlxICmiY3K0e by locagainstwall@detroitriotcity.com
2023-07-19T20:43:07.069175Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck @Loukas @noelreports NIGGEEEEEEEEEER :alexjonesyelling: Sorry about that. I lose my cool sometimes :alexjonesheadache:
(DIR) Post #AXrdvY7geLgRUXwQYS by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-07-19T21:08:58Z
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@anderspuckIt seems #Putin is using this as a gambit to get #sanctions lifted because those sanctions totally don't work and only make #Russia stronk! @nieldk @ifilipau @noelreports
(DIR) Post #AXre9ITRd5Kb0kfpku by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-07-19T21:11:27Z
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@anderspuckYou and Sal should do a joint video one day. Couple of nautical guys talking shop. I'd pay money to watch it.https://youtu.be/ZI3kC6fNIPA@Loukas @noelreports
(DIR) Post #AXrqsqFA7WKQE8Tdjc by lethen@mastodon.online
2023-07-19T23:34:08Z
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@anderspuck @noelreports Turkey should station a couple of soldiers on each cargo ship, then Russia won’t dare to sink them.
(DIR) Post #AXsMpoZL5RxkhKVzsG by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-07-19T20:33:33Z
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@VikingChieftain @anderspuck @noelreports As an exporter, Russia just increased its market power in the grain marketRussia can provide China, or whatever countries are friendly with it, with whatever they need. Or it could price gouge. .
(DIR) Post #AXsMppcZAw8dxd25Xk by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-07-20T05:30:24Z
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@chowderman @VikingChieftain @anderspuck @noelreports Turkey, India, China, they could all break the Russian blockade. The necessary question therefore is what is EU/Nato willing to give these countries, or what aspects of EU/Nato sovereignty is it willing to pool with those countries in order to build a strong enough political partnership?
(DIR) Post #AXtFjg5VCaN48Re640 by xs4me2@mastodon.social
2023-07-20T15:47:14Z
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@anderspuck @noelreports Would be a good move... ships under UN flag would be even better...