Post AX1pOXjs57QaDSWWDw by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #AX1kXifOK2kKwXz5Ki by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T20:17:50Z
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What a day. The attack by the Wagner group into #Russia was a direct attack on Putin's credibility. It may signal the beginning of the end for Russia's president. In this video I share my initial thoughts. https://youtu.be/ZxDykKhCYAA
(DIR) Post #AX1kzUs1D61sGN8U5Y by aurochs@todon.eu
2023-06-24T20:21:53Z
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@anderspuck Took you long enough! (irony on)
(DIR) Post #AX1l8Mn4cUsFoJ3Ijw by mok0@mastodon.online
2023-06-24T20:22:46Z
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@anderspuck It feels like they are f*cking gaslighting the entire world.
(DIR) Post #AX1mYJ2VHyhReyCbia by shantara@mastodon.social
2023-06-24T20:40:01Z
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@anderspuck Thanks for trying to make sense about this crazy day!Do you have any thoughts about how the very public loss of 7 aircraft and 12-13 pilots aboard in a single day could impact the the situation? And now Prigozhin gets to walk free, with seemingly no repercussions. Are these losses simply going to be swept under the rug?
(DIR) Post #AX1mf1nhmRdWDpUB2u by aurochs@todon.eu
2023-06-24T20:35:39Z
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@anderspuck Could it be that Kadirov publicly siding with Putin could have tipped the balance and made Prigozhin think that he would not pull it off?Normally, during a coup not everybody is informed and the "coupetiers" expect suficient factic powers to join it spontaneously. At least that's what I think happened in Spain during the early 80's (maybe that's why it failed)
(DIR) Post #AX1mf2ODagqM34ZKxU by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T20:40:23Z
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@aurochs I don’t think Prigozhin counted on Kadyrov. But maybe he was hoping for support from someone in Moscow. Or maybe he just thought it was enough for now, and he wants the effect to materialize before a second round. 🤷♂️
(DIR) Post #AX1mtaDmbORt1ucjvE by aurochs@todon.eu
2023-06-24T20:43:36Z
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@anderspuck It actually looked liked there was a lot in his favor, most of the army engaged in Ukraine there was little opposition for them to get to Moscow and wreak havoc.
(DIR) Post #AX1myjmCVIWY72BEMC by Wassini@helvede.net
2023-06-24T20:44:07Z
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@anderspuck You didn't mention the role of Kadyrov. Also - what will happen to the Russian solders that joined the Wagner group?
(DIR) Post #AX1nPPHumt4mO4jOme by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T20:49:51Z
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@anderspuck Hej Anders. Interessant video. Jeg ved ikke om du kender Karsten Skjalm, men han har lavet en længere analyse af det sidste døgns hændelser i hans lukkede Facebook gruppe. Hans konklusion er dog ret langt fra din:
(DIR) Post #AX1nV0Q4A2mGzqDJAG by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T20:51:03Z
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@Wassini Kadyrov’s power depends entirely on Putin. Therefore his role was to pretend to do something important while looking hyper-loyal.
(DIR) Post #AX1oTBHCvJaQ2nlPqi by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:01:56Z
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@aurochs if he hopes to replace Putin, maybe he didn’t want to wreak havoc. This whole day is likely to have increased Prigozhin’s popularity among Russians, but shedding a lot of blood would have damaged it.
(DIR) Post #AX1oc9tNRKU4MBtkXI by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:03:40Z
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@AndersGottlieb Ja, Peter Viggo er også nået frem til nogenlunde samme konklusion som Karsten.
(DIR) Post #AX1p7C8p7y2yJFvFjM by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:09:14Z
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@anderspuck Tja, det lader til at Wagner bliver opløst. Det ser ud til at Prigozhin skal flytte til Belarus, og at mange fra Wagner ikke vil skrive kontrakt med MoD, så Rusland "mister" deres mest succesrige gruppe. Det er da ihvertfald positivt for Ukraine. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AX1pOXjs57QaDSWWDw by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:12:20Z
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@shantara This is the core of Putin’s embarrassment. He started the day by talking about mutiny and sedition, threatening all kinds of tough consequences. And in the end he just turned the other cheek and was rescued by Belarus.
(DIR) Post #AX1pSlTcwi6rywwFHM by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:13:07Z
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@AndersGottlieb Ja, det i sig selv er positiv. Men lad os nu se om vi har hørt det sidste til Prigozhin.
(DIR) Post #AX1peOOaaTU9s77u1g by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:15:07Z
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@anderspuck Det har vi nok ikke, medmindre han drikker te fra Putin, eller kommer forbi et åbent vindue. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AX1qAwVnHOJCwq19QO by peterlorentzen@mstdn.dk
2023-06-24T21:20:55Z
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@anderspuck It feels weird rooting for the leader of Wagner Group but anything that can help end the way is welcome in my book. Do you think Prigozhin wants Putin’s position and would he a better or worse alternative in your opinion?
(DIR) Post #AX1qTjEMslanG9pBVQ by shantara@mastodon.social
2023-06-24T21:24:13Z
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@anderspuck It’s very hard for me to internalize that such public event, which involve a loss of life and military hardware may go completely unchallenged by the public. I understand it on an abstract level, but it’s so very different compared to what we consider a “normal” society by western standards!
(DIR) Post #AX1qmanCTn3Qai70b2 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:27:57Z
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@peterlorentzen I think almost everyone would be better than Putin, but I’m not sure Prigozhin has enough support from the elites to take the position. Maybe he can find an ally with elite support that can take the role of president.
(DIR) Post #AX1qybBipok1IDJ66y by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:30:03Z
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@AndersGottlieb På sin vis er hans livsforsikring måske at han er for vigtig til at kunne blive blive smidt ud af et vindue. Og i så fald er han jo nødt til at blive ved, så han forbliver vigtig.
(DIR) Post #AX1rGgS802wWpibWoi by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:33:21Z
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@anderspuck Men han kan vel ikke forblive vigtig fra Belarus, medmindre det er meningen at han skal overtage Lukasjenkos job? ;-)
(DIR) Post #AX1t7ZrFLkOhgK8fOC by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T21:53:54Z
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@AndersGottlieb Nej. Så jeg vil tro han kommer til at blande sig igen.
(DIR) Post #AX1u3ZExnsSGYvsry4 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-06-24T22:04:02Z
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@anderspuck De er nu sjove de danske pro-russere . ;-)
(DIR) Post #AX1vK2P7F0H1bF3Aiu by JonnyFever@freespeechextremist.com
2023-06-24T22:19:08.052280Z
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@anderspuck shut the fuck up
(DIR) Post #AX1xd4RC6X99JiE39M by maxieq@mastodon.nu
2023-06-24T22:44:33Z
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@anderspuck Was anything solved for them then? It seems that a) Putin can't stop an army marching on Moscow, and b) all you need to do to get concessions is to march an army toward Moscow. And then, from another perspective, c) Prigozhin didn't follow through on his threat, and d) he can be bought off easily.
(DIR) Post #AX2G5YlWjnPef1TEHY by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-06-25T02:11:17Z
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@anderspuck Thanks for this excellent video. We are so lucky to live in a time when someone like you can share your expertise in near real time from the other side of the world. Have you seen this one yet from 1420? It's always fascinating to see how much information #Russia'ns have access to, even in #Putin's informational autocracy. https://youtu.be/z2N23_BQcAU
(DIR) Post #AX2a0ByK3RXHbRAo76 by peterlorentzen@mstdn.dk
2023-06-25T05:54:34Z
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@anderspuck one can hope. What a strange time to be alive.
(DIR) Post #AX2v84pqZR6Ep4oHaq by michael@westergaard.social
2023-06-24T23:10:33.951693Z
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Why root for either? If you see a pitbull and a dobermann fighting, there’s no point in rooting for any of them. Even if one kills the other, they are both still garbage murder dogs.
(DIR) Post #AX2v85dTaunZJ01uwy by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T09:51:15Z
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@michael @peterlorentzen Are you not unfair to Dobermanns here?
(DIR) Post #AX2vB5ljYVvCaTK8e0 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T09:51:55Z
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@AndersGottlieb 😂
(DIR) Post #AX2xTtWHWQSA0WBono by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-24T21:29:38Z
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@aurochs @anderspuck Surovikin siding with Putin would have had a greater impact on Prigozhin than anything Kadyrov did.
(DIR) Post #AX2xTu8DFOnJu9w6vQ by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T10:17:41Z
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@chowderman @aurochs Agree. But clearly the FSB was aware of that, and they quickly got everyone that might be suspected of siding with Prigozhin in front of a camera to denounce his actions.
(DIR) Post #AX36MsuuGR1FhLRLQ8 by Coffeebean@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T11:57:17Z
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@anderspuck What, where, how ... What will Prigo be doing in Belarus ??Where will he be stationed in Belarus. Out of reach of everything military ??How will Luka and Putin control Prigo in Belarus ??IS he amputated for life now ??Possibility that no of his 25K men will sign a contract with Shoigu's departement but instead continue having Prigo's back and maybe join the Russian Free Legion and go against the regime.SO many questions in this big math 🤔
(DIR) Post #AX3NJ771F6J7mptROC by HenrikBruunDK@toot.community
2023-06-25T13:56:51Z
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@Coffeebean @anderspuck I think we should be careful whenever we predict something that is in favor of Ukraine. If it sounds too good to be true (or too easy), it probably is
(DIR) Post #AX3NJ81NrXOUbeGSFE by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T15:06:33Z
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@HenrikBruunDK @Coffeebean So many unanswerable questions, but also many things that seem implausible. I have a very hard time believing this is the last we have heard from Prigozhin. He would not initiate all this to achieve nothing.
(DIR) Post #AX3NXACoXPTZR2Irqa by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T15:09:40Z
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@Coffeebean Who says Lukashenko wants to control Prigozhin? They would make a very strong alliance. 🤔
(DIR) Post #AX3OFGScdwcFZmj63s by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-25T15:16:52Z
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@anderspuck @Coffeebean Do you think that they will have a joint grave?
(DIR) Post #AX3PGGejVDBEQSQvE8 by DrGeraintLlanfrancheta@mastodon.coffee
2023-06-25T15:20:12Z
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@chowderman @anderspuck @Coffeebean (cp. Blinken's comment)
(DIR) Post #AX3PGHY2BbPrByJ5QO by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-06-25T15:28:50Z
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@DrGeraintLlanfrancheta @chowderman @Coffeebean What did Blinken say?
(DIR) Post #AX3PUFZOKz416xbOls by DrGeraintLlanfrancheta@mastodon.coffee
2023-06-25T15:31:30Z
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@anderspuck @chowderman @Coffeebean https://nafo.uk/@rogue_corq/110605515469954106(only looked at the headline...Apologies)
(DIR) Post #AXYPgU44NlngnKYZl2 by g@propulse.club
2023-07-10T14:29:50Z
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@anderspuck I'm sorry, but your predictions appear to be significantly inaccurate. 🤣