Post AVkBaSZ1Np2gWXYSP2 by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
(DIR) More posts by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
(DIR) Post #AVkBaSZ1Np2gWXYSP2 by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T10:59:31.714818Z
4 likes, 1 repeats
News from France.First the retirement protests are still going on in a slow burn, the most visible part is that Macron basically cannot go anywhere in France (or even in Europe) without a bunch of activists making noise.There are a few legal options left, we have a fake party in the national assembly “LIOT” that is basically a shell structure for independentists and regionalists (so that they have the privileges of a real party, membership in commissions and stuff), it is trying to get a law to cancel the retirement law on the floor, it’s significant that they are the ones doing it because they have been used as a “neutral middle ground” for proposals that both the nationalists and the far-left can vote on without any appearance of a red-brown coalition (the nationalists can and do vote for tankie communist proposals, especially on energy policy and worker’s rights, but the reverse is not true, and the trotskyists basically make sure that nothing they propose doesn’t have a poison pill).Unions are still angry and are not letting the subject disappear, but they got past the point where they could do a general strike, the inflation is so high that people are very concerned about making ends meet and it’s not great for mobilization.
(DIR) Post #AVkBae8sKrG4QvPkJc by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T11:00:50.718554Z
5 likes, 1 repeats
On the ourguys and ourguys adjacent front, it’s been an active few weeks…I’m sure you have heard about the small town maire trying to get a refugee camp in his town and his house and cars being burned, he resigned from it and that created a huge mediatic storm.The guys who did it got away with it, and since they didn’t kill or wound anybody most people don’t really care that much, but the political and mediatic class went ballistic.The RN’s (nationalist party of Marine Le Pen) reaction was, all things considered, pretty white pilling, while of course they disavowed political violence because they are all about taking power legally within the institutions of the Vth republic, they didn’t cuck too hard, going “what about antifas” systematically anytime a journalist would attack them on the event and refusing to stand up in the parliament when a standing ovation was made for the resigning maire.The internal security apparatus went on high alert against “far right groups” tho, and people are going dark all over the map, an executive order was sent to prefects (basically regional governors with pretty extensive police powers) to forbid any public “far right” demonstrations and to set the repression to the maximum level. Those orders are probably illegal since they target a specific political ideology, but being illegal does’nt stop them from being effective.Action Française (basically the oldest surviving proto-fascist organization in the whole world ^^) did get a judicial win against those orders which will be used as jurisprudence in the following months… or years… but it’s going to take time and/or some other “threat” to reduce the strong security service focus on the far right, until then it’s low profile time…
(DIR) Post #AVkBaeTn55zLTnCRuq by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T11:00:11.826494Z
5 likes, 1 repeats
On the muh Russia front, it’s mixed signals all over, on one hand we are delivering AMX-10RC light tanks to Ukraine which is a shame since they are our first line of colonial fighting force and we need them for our own forces (they were very effective in Afghanistan and are very effective in Africa, but they are designed to fight savages, not Russian armored divisions with artillery); And we had to low-key allow the UK to deliver the Storm Shadow missiles (which are a bigger problem, but so expensive that I doubt they will change anything strategically, they will kill Russians tho). On the other hand our nuclear industry has reinforced its cooperation with Russian Rosatom, which displeased greatly the other members of GAYTO.
(DIR) Post #AVkCwaI1RIhUoHiX4K by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T11:13:41.739257Z
4 likes, 2 repeats
Oh yeah, and on the political minutia level, two relatively significant things.First Marine Le Pen distanced herself from Meloni, saying “Meloni is pro-NATO, I’m not”, and members of the party doubling down when interrogated by the media, basically explaining the difference between the Bannon-Right and actual nationalists, I don’t know how much of it the people actually understand, but at least the idea was floated.On the far left side, the PCF (Stalinist commies) are visibly fed up with their alliance of sorts with the woke neoliberal left, both green/socialists and the trotskyist antifa-adjacent LFI party, from what I can tell, they are predicting a Marine Le Pen victory and want to be the “serious” opposition party, which is incompatible with allying with a bunch of violent freaks who are all about disruption but have zero governmental credibility.
(DIR) Post #AVkD8LKisB1HtlaTzM by voronesh234@poa.st
2023-05-17T11:21:47.985555Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy Interesting insight, thanks.
(DIR) Post #AVkEFK1oDuD1pedGnw by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T11:34:15.384666Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy >we had to low-key allow the UK to deliver the Storm Shadow missilesWhy is this a low-key thing? Delivering arms to Ukraine seems to be something politicians love to brag about doing. And why does the UK need French permission in the first place?
(DIR) Post #AVkENIVJm1L7QEEoNs by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T11:35:42.322491Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy >"Nothing ever happens" gang stays winning
(DIR) Post #AVktL8Fl0moLAe2tRg by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:14:03.300507Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen Because it’s a co-engineered weapon system between France and the UK and sharing it with non NATO members can imply a veto from the partner.There is a, fake and gay, but popular idea in France that we are only providing “defensive” weapons to Ukraine, it’s pretty meaningless because weapons are weapons, but delivering long range missiles is still seen as a red line, especially modern ones like the SCALP/StormShadow.Nobody really knows if the Russians air defense system can reliably stop the SCALP, I believe it can at full capacity but I also believe that the Russians are wary of exposing the real max capacity of the domestic version of the S-400, forcing them to choose between our glowies learning the full capacity of the domestic S-400 or getting bombed -is- an escalation.
(DIR) Post #AVktQqxyCGW9IHSCVU by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T19:15:45.338917Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy I still don't get why Britain needs French permission to send the missiles, just because they're co-developed by France. As far as I know there was no question of getting permission here in Denmark when sending Caesar artillery.
(DIR) Post #AVktVHP3qYzgReEhm4 by AnimeTradCath@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:16:33.381445Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy wait... you're French???
(DIR) Post #AVktvA2tp9vh9hDAYq by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:20:40.442073Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen It depends on the tech used, basically missile technology is covered by a network of bilateral and multilateral agreements that make re-exportation a multi-stakeholder thing.Sure, we would (unfortunately) not declare war on the perfidious anglos if they happened to deliver some missiles without our green light but it would delay other technological partnerships for a few month while people calm down, so I’m pretty sure they asked, and we said “ok, but don’t involve us publicly, not a great time for that”.
(DIR) Post #AVktzKhEATUHLU41Eu by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T19:21:59.234219Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy Wouldn't supporting Ukraine with missiles alongside the British be a good distraction for the French government from it's domestic issues?
(DIR) Post #AVku8svYGchY7LJoky by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:21:48.698343Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@AnimeTradCath Hon hon hon !
(DIR) Post #AVku8tYBwxbs3BOfz6 by AnimeTradCath@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:23:42.705015Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy my Mom says that Gauloises smell absolutely dreadful. Is this true?
(DIR) Post #AVkvejdKSOfmVuXvjU by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:32:52.220337Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@AnimeTradCath The cigarettes or the girls ? If the first, yeah, they are stinky but it’s nothing compared to the old Gitanes Maïs we had !
(DIR) Post #AVkvekRJSYeh0vvqds by AnimeTradCath@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:40:40.173165Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy since you Frenchies apparently don't bath, then it would apply to the women as well.
(DIR) Post #AVkwQb1LmVpLhbbVb6 by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:31:50.213592Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen It’s dangerous terrain for Macron.Officially everybody is aligned with the narrative that the Russian side is in the wrong because they started inter-state hostilities, if you are a serious political figure you cannot really say anything else even if you actually support the Russian side, because sovereignty is important and you don’t want the precedent that if you are doing a civil war your neighbor can intervene.But the debate on whether France should stay in NATO united command or return to Gaullist policy of “part of NATO as an ally, but an independent military power” is a debate that nobody wants to happen except for Marine Le Pen, because the second option is obviously preferable for France.The whole strategy of diabolisation of the nationalists in France has been to say that they don’t really represent traditional French policy; Allowing them to get in a position where they would be the ones obviously channeling De Gaulle against a pro-american government would turn the defeat of that strategy in the next election from a high probability to an absolute certainty. And that’s only the internal politics of it, imagine the pain in the ass for NATO unity if France starts debating about whether NATO even is a good idea…
(DIR) Post #AVkwV5QoenNdB5elt2 by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:47:53.803070Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen BTW there is a funny thing about the Storm Shadow, it requires pretty involved integration with the carrier aircraft, the naval version we have in France does not and could easily be land based but that’s not the version the UK is delivering, we did that version without them.So the version the UK is delivering basically cannot be fired from soviet era airplanes without a lot of integration work and English components either duplicating soviet components… or replacing them.That integration work was already done with the SU-24 so it’s doable, because the SU-24 is a huge ass airplane that can carry multiple targeting systems and still stay in its envelope, but you still need to train the pilots on those modified versions.So they are not going to fire them anytime soon from an Ukrainian piloted platform, and I don’t believe it’s even the plan, they are probably going to be fired by UK pilots from UK tornados… It would be even more of a pain in the ass if Ukraine was not an MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) core member, but since they inherited ballistic missile tech from the soviet era, that’s not an issue here.
(DIR) Post #AVkwqEoCzI46LHgSrQ by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T19:53:57.351203Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy I think you might be putting too much stock in rules for "how things should be" in a world of spies, backroom deals and even not-so-secret assistance that isn't supposed to be happening.Western aircraft to Ukraine has long been a talking point among western leaders, but I doubt the UK will give Tornadoes for this system right away (unless deals to give aircraft have already been made among western leaders). Rather there's probably an SU-27 or MiG-29 module that allows usage of the missiles in the works or already finished, would be my guess.
(DIR) Post #AVkxfbGJGaQ8kTJriC by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T19:59:04.291299Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen Yeah, adapting it to the SU-27 is definitely something that can be done in a few months if you cut through the red tape, but training in use of the system adds a few months to that deadline at least.And that’s if, as I expect, they don’t use the AI capabilities of the Storm Shadow and use them as relatively “dumb” cruise missiles with static or near-static targets.Which would make sense since the autonomous target discrimination feature of that platform was designed for low intensity precision strikes as part of the GWOT, they don’t need to activate that feature for a hot war.
(DIR) Post #AVkxk3dvglJBveUcqW by voronesh234@poa.st
2023-05-17T20:04:02.933312Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen @MyLittleFashy Russia has the one of greatest amounts of anti-air rocket systems (probably to counter American air superiority) and it's interesting to see if NATO will decide to supply Ukraine with hypersonic missiles to test what S-300/400 and Tor's are capable for.But in the other hand they afraid to escalate it into WW3 so we probably won't see this actually happened.
(DIR) Post #AVkxpXidIL5oehJBNg by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T20:05:01.795647Z
2 likes, 1 repeats
@MyLittleFashy Hitting a moving target that is being tracked is not what makes the missile important, I think, but the missile's low radar signature and ability to maneuver a defined path avoiding Russian radar installations.But only time will tell.
(DIR) Post #AVky1oBzs89zDqtMfI by LouisConde@mugicha.club
2023-05-17T20:07:13.377305Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
Nous sommes partout
(DIR) Post #AVkyZ2rMMRGKGg5U8W by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T20:11:31.547214Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen I agree, in that specific environment the selling point is the air defense resistance of the missile that is a boon to the Ukrainians.The missile is fucking expensive and apart from the GWOT context it makes no sense to waste it on a vehicle, and even less sense to use the full capabilities of it’s “collateral damage estimator” mode with secondary and tertiary targets, that was a role for a very different war with people being ok with each strike mission costing in the tens of millions of dollars.
(DIR) Post #AVkyZ3WpsERILJUbmi by Jens_Rasmussen@gleasonator.com
2023-05-17T20:13:15.345237Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@MyLittleFashy >it makes no sense to waste it on a vehicleI imagine it's for striking fuel and munitions depots. that's what cruise missiles do most of the time, isn't it?
(DIR) Post #AVkyrF7fVQXtVuORA8 by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T20:15:40.192632Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen Yeah, it’s probably not too hard to program it to kill a moving train even -if- you can be assured you won’t be detected.Which, frankly, you can’t, maybe just maybe the Russians can’t track if with a targeting radar, but they definitely can at least detect its presence.
(DIR) Post #AVkznLFKtcvNIlgQCG by MyLittleFashy@poa.st
2023-05-17T20:23:12.970228Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@Jens_Rasmussen TBH it’s a real waste, we have cheaper missiles that do the same job, but we are not selling them ^^The elevator pitch of the SCALP was “look, the missile is actually better than your average F-16 pilot at not bombing civilian weddings … except if the mission is to bomb a civilian wedding of course !”.All that targeting smarts is pretty much wasted on russian ammo dumps in my opinion, but that’s war for you…