Post AVLogK6w8XaPQ1ngv2 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #AVLg024rzjgbh49nE0 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T15:17:05Z
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Was the drone attack on the Kremlin a Russian false flag operation? In this video I offer some suggestions for what to look for. #Russia #Ukraine https://youtu.be/jabKKr3pstU
(DIR) Post #AVLgWtXgkW5WmKJ4S0 by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-05-05T15:23:00Z
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@anderspuckI was hoping you'd make one!
(DIR) Post #AVLhJK31VQtAsq3U4e by SimpleRobC@masto.ai
2023-05-05T15:31:38Z
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@anderspuck by @dontomasserrano
(DIR) Post #AVLo1vsUoaCag7mnlg by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T16:30:57Z
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@anderspuck I heard yesterday in the radio (P!) one of these experts in Russian media and disinformation. I think it was Valentyna Shapovalova. According to her, the story about the attack on Kremlin was the top story in all Russians news outlets. It didn't sound like they were down playing it. Sometimes it can be hard to know who to believe. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AVLo1wV8Uv6ubxrezo by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T16:47:03Z
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@AndersGottlieb That's absolutely not what I see. Already next morning it was not mentioned in the morning news, and it's not prominent on the websites of the news agencies. My impression was similar to Steve Rosenberg's here: They mentioned it, but not a big deal. https://bird.makeup/users/bbcstever/statuses/1654101583800532993
(DIR) Post #AVLogK6w8XaPQ1ngv2 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T16:54:28Z
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@anderspuck As I wrote, when you get more or less opposite informations, then it is hard to know what to believe.
(DIR) Post #AVLqjN9nT3FXdwihTk by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T17:17:13Z
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@AndersGottlieb Yeah, don’t know how far one can get on e.g. RIA and TASS with Google Translate.
(DIR) Post #AVLs7fypEewavTjzma by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-05-05T17:32:49Z
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@anderspuck @AndersGottlieb Also I'm thinking about message track. If it was a false-flag there would have been a media line ready prepared, for them to exploit it. A vague statement about SMERSH or drone defences or rambling from Medvedev is not what you'd expect from a centrally planned information operation.If the Kremlin had attacked itself it would want to make it seem as though it thought Nato had attacked it, and respond full spectrum in a serious way
(DIR) Post #AVLuFrf1tH1rNVVuoi by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-05-05T17:35:26Z
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@anderspuck @AndersGottlieb in other words, the response suggests the Kremlin was surprised and didn't have a plan to exploit this. And that they suspect or hope that this was an irregular attack rather than a nato-sanctioned one by Kyiv.
(DIR) Post #AVLuFt9YLH2U0Sno24 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T17:44:01Z
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@Loukas @anderspuck You are probably right, bit it seems ISW looks at it differently. ;-)Anyway, nobody will take responsibility before the war is over if at all. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AVLuFtlq2vfDvCiNhw by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-05-05T17:49:01Z
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@AndersGottlieb @anderspuck I agree with this assessment from an analyst at the Australian strategic policy institute. ISW compiles nice maps but they don't have any independent sources of their own or any particular depth of expertise :)
(DIR) Post #AVM0CJwFPcJ5e9GECG by mangouste@mastodon.cloud
2023-05-05T19:03:27Z
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@anderspuck Good video. Nothing about this being a false flag makes sense to me but I’m not in this field.
(DIR) Post #AVMqqCf558wMHGZOgi by matthewburton@mstdn.social
2023-05-06T01:39:56Z
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@Loukas @AndersGottlieb @anderspuck I liked ISW’s reports last spring but soon noticed a propensity to call attention to every new development that supported a past analysis. There’s something icky about that. It feel like it violates intel analysis decorum.
(DIR) Post #AVMqqDKCcFpkKnoEme by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T04:53:21Z
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@matthewburton @Loukas @AndersGottlieb That bothers me too. They really like the phrase “as ISW has previously noted”, but they don’t mention the numerous times they’ve been wrong. I still think it’s overall a good source for a daily news update, though.
(DIR) Post #AVNTbkDHx3mkClfOWu by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T19:19:21Z
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@Loukas @anderspuck It seems that Rear Admiral Chris Parry from the Royal Navy see it as a false flag operation. "It's a false flag attack and the flagpole survived.":https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrOwYUHxfLQ
(DIR) Post #AVNTbqKbCnCLBB8Jl2 by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-05-05T19:25:51Z
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@AndersGottlieb @anderspuck yeah I think we can say for sure that a real attack by a Nato force would not just look like a firework. But that doesn't mean it was definitely Putin. It just means it was definitely not USA or Ukrainian regulars.
(DIR) Post #AVNTbvGsq2CGV6QvA0 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-05T19:53:32Z
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@Loukas @anderspuck No it doesn't, but his argument is that they need that Russia is looked as a victim, as with the North Stream explosions. Weather he is right, I dont know.
(DIR) Post #AVNTbzIRs9pEz7CE9g by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T10:43:29Z
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@Loukas @anderspuck Here is an other take that Russia is the victem in this war. They think they are like David fighting the big Goliath with 50+ countries against them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwR330hUhso
(DIR) Post #AVNTc3NCiQ0Rd1S57g by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T12:07:25Z
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@AndersGottlieb @Loukas In the meantime the attack on the Kremlin has now entirely disappeared from the domestic Russian media coverage.
(DIR) Post #AVNmjaOOFQ9RBwJPFI by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T15:42:02Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas No matter who actually attacked Kremlin, this is an interesting take on on the consequences:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1654533886079307776.html
(DIR) Post #AVNojEQE8Icixa87Ps by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T16:04:25Z
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@AndersGottlieb @Loukas Yes, it’s a good take. I agree, blaming Ukraine is an admission of weakness. It’s deeply embarrassing for Putin.
(DIR) Post #AVNuDcjOodaSoPPQGm by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-06T17:05:40Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas Maybe they should just have dismissed it as a prank or that that a mistake was made when they prepared for 9th of May, instead of blaming Ukraine and the US and call it an assassination attempt. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AVQATwzrDxJrsdpml6 by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-07T19:17:26Z
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@anderspuck @matthewburton @Loukas It seems this guy has also read/heard your arguments. Atleast they are very similar to yours:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgE_CJxwWt0
(DIR) Post #AVQCRekWIQkgcGh5V2 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-07T19:39:36Z
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@AndersGottlieb @matthewburton @Loukas "This guy" is Mark Galeotti who is one of the leading Russia experts in the world. I'm not sure he needed to see my video to figure this out. 🙂
(DIR) Post #AVR0U1zLrMpyyjxPZg by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-05-08T05:00:10Z
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@anderspuck @AndersGottlieb @matthewburton in his latest podcast he predicted how Prigozhin would pretend to get ammunition and climb down from the threat to withdraw and that impressed me.
(DIR) Post #AVRpLXJ594OrANtPOK by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-05-08T14:30:05Z
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@anderspuck @matthewburton @Loukas Even the best needs a muse. ;-)
(DIR) Post #AVX2uD39Ct7AEjONHs by devg@mstdn.social
2023-05-11T02:55:33Z
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@anderspuck Have you seen this interview of an ex-Duma person: https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1655988310668345357
(DIR) Post #AVXGrZ8C3EELD6Nyuu by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-11T05:31:56Z
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@devg It’s interesting, and I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility. But I also don’t think I’d say it’s the most like scenario. Those were not just ordinary hobby drones but pretty big systems.