Post AV7FDq59yKwjZNDF3Y by chowderman@universeodon.com
(DIR) More posts by chowderman@universeodon.com
(DIR) Post #AV7747Y5NUUZDCb6Tg by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:39:55Z
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Some people say that if Ukraine's summer offensive is a failure, #Ukraine may have to settle for a peace deal even if it means giving up some territory. This is a problematic argument, because it implies that it is only up to Ukraine to make compromises. I think it's important to consider what #Russia's demands might be for peace too. So here is a short š§µ about what Russia's minimum demands must be expected to be. 1/6
(DIR) Post #AV778ACpRNd0bxaAgy by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:40:29Z
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Russian demand #1: Ukraine must leave all the annexed territories. This includes large areas that Russia does not control including the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kramatorsk. These areas are by the Russian constitution defined as Russian territory, and it is unthinkable that Putin can sign a deal that hands over parts of Russia to a foreign government. 2/6
(DIR) Post #AV779mMt2X5lG73cFk by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:41:01Z
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Russian demand #2: No prosecution of war crimes. From Putin's perspective it would be a humiliation to have Russian soldiers ā let alone himself ā tried in The Hague. In Western discourse the question of war crimes and prosecution is often discussed separately from issues of the war and the perspectives for peace. But it is of course connected, and it will be an absolute deal breaker if Ukraine and the West insist on justice for war crimes. 3/6
(DIR) Post #AV77C3186sT5TSxjPs by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:41:27Z
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Russian demand #3: No reparations. Russia will of course not pay compensation for the damages they have caused. From Putin's perspective that would be a humiliation. He might even demand reparations from Ukraine. 4/6
(DIR) Post #AV77GNf7IJh8f5jRx2 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:42:11Z
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These are just the minimum requirements that we should expect Putin to have to even consider signing a peace deal. It is much less than the original goals when the invasion started, and it is also less than Russia's long-term goals. But even this is absolutely detached from reality and a non-starter for negotiations. 5/6
(DIR) Post #AV77Lr6pEsHrRCIrho by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T14:43:11Z
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In other words, a peace deal is not an option for Ukraine, and I think it's important we stop talking about it as if it were. If Ukraine's summer offensive is a failure, it does not mean that Ukraine can give Russia a part of the occupied territories in exchange for peace. Putin's demands are much bigger and absolutely unrealistic. So if Ukraine's summer offensive is a failure, it just means that the war will continue. 6/6
(DIR) Post #AV78PNecnEtPCJMDKq by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-04-28T14:54:56Z
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@anderspuck it is baffling to me that people frame the counteroffensive an-all-or-nothing moment.Of course it will be best if Ukraine succeeds and takes back significant portions of territory (e.g. the South). But the war will not end there. Putin doesn't want it to end in order to justify his regime.Framing it as all-or-nothing only helps Putin IMO since if it is only partially successful: russia "wins". And if it is successful but russia doesn't acknowledge defeat: russia "wins" too.
(DIR) Post #AV79d0ZnUc9XdCA4J6 by oakster@mas.to
2023-04-28T15:08:08Z
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@anderspuck yes. Neither side is ready for concessions. Thereās no real consideration of it in Ukraine or Russia because thereās been zero preparation of the public to concessions. Itās not part of the discussion
(DIR) Post #AV7ElZIglzANPh3nGa by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-04-28T14:58:20Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck maybe I'm unfair but it seems to me that people who frame it in that way are just looking for an excuse to force Ukraine to 'make peace' ie to make it surrender asap.
(DIR) Post #AV7ElZuGWHDxIEdnpw by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T15:15:34Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf @anderspuck I dont think you are unfair but quite right. Anders, what about all his demands before the war, dont you think he still demands those: Nato to withdraw from all countries that joined after 1999, and that these countries must leave Nato and be demilitarized. That the rest of Ukraine must be demilitarized and never become member of Nato...As he thinks he is in war with Nato, then any peace agreement wil include demands to Nato.
(DIR) Post #AV7ElaXGBIPrFAswcK by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-04-28T15:45:41Z
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@AndersGottlieb @t_mkdf @anderspuck I was talking about this with @kallekn the other day. How ever since the Orange revolution Putin has thought he's pushing back the rolling tide of Nato. And then the Balotnaya 2011 made him think Nato had attacked his home.So that implies Putin will see any defeat or stalemate of Ukraine as proof of his ability to push back or resist this 'Nato political war', even if it's not overtly stated
(DIR) Post #AV7Elb3sE2VIsK8zS4 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T16:06:09Z
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@Loukas @AndersGottlieb @t_mkdf @kallekn At this point I think Putin would have to assume that Ukraine could become a member of NATO really quickly after a peace settlement. So definitely that may also be a demand from his side in terms of security guarantees. Regarding all the other demands from before the invasion, I think they were largely just smoke.
(DIR) Post #AV7FDq59yKwjZNDF3Y by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-04-28T16:11:19Z
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@anderspuck One point of orderYou write āThese areas are by the Russian constitution defined as Russian territory, and it is unthinkable that Putin can sign a deal that hands over parts of Russia to a foreign governmentā.I believe that it is worse than that. Putin made it illegal for the russian authorities to cede any territory.
(DIR) Post #AV7FpkAkORkEFDtt1k by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-04-28T16:18:08Z
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@anderspuck Ukraine have said that Putin will have to leave before there can be peace. Putting aside the reasonable expectation of Putin going to The Hague as one of their demands, in practice Putin is pathologically incapable of compromise and peace.Ukraine accepts that, short of unconditional surrender to whatever crimes Putin wishes to commit, no peace is possible.
(DIR) Post #AV7J31fmwAhQ9IRdDM by AndersGottlieb@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T16:53:59Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas @t_mkdf @kallekn I am not sure how much he actually believes in his own propaganda, but it seems he lives in his own world, so I am quite sure, he will come with such demanding, even if it was just smoke februar last year.All accounts atleast give the rest of the world the impression that for the last 3 years he has been more and more isolated, and only gets information of the outside world from his Daily report and from Russian statetv. That is quite unhealthy. š
(DIR) Post #AV7LX1JF3Nv1cJKRfM by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-04-28T16:24:56Z
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@chowderman @anderspuck true. But it is "just" a law. And laws can be changed. If there's the political will that is...
(DIR) Post #AV7LX1z4XrNZi2tqro by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-04-28T16:36:43Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck True, it is just a law, which is why I mentioned it as nothing more than a clarification. It does however signal Putinās mindset. Like the sabotage of Nordstream, Putin does like to dramatically burn bridges.
(DIR) Post #AV7LX2innpxVzsIN96 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T17:22:00Z
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@chowderman @t_mkdf Yeah, it would be some serious backpedaling to repeal that law.
(DIR) Post #AV7Ll22d81yXwREwvA by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-04-28T17:16:03Z
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@AndersGottlieb @anderspuck @Loukas @kalleknThe channels he uses for information are definitely limited. And he doesn't trust the internet, since he thinks it is not real. Which is kind of funny, because his rambling sounds like a 70-year old in a conservative echo-chamber... https://youtu.be/beoePV5F7dE
(DIR) Post #AV7Ll2eCsK27oyoxUW by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-04-28T17:24:32Z
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@t_mkdf @AndersGottlieb @Loukas @kallekn Oh, absolutely. But that list of demands last year looked designed to be rejected, so it could serve as a pretext for invasion.
(DIR) Post #AV7bdEfnsWKK4IrqgC by Renegade_GDI@mastodon.world
2023-04-28T20:22:21Z
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@anderspuck or maybe there's gonna be no counteroffensive at all, because M1A1 didn't arrive yet and we lack air superiority too, because some cowards refuse to supply us with proper aircraft
(DIR) Post #AV7dYAsWlA0Sl9X8HQ by darthstar@mastodon.online
2023-04-28T20:43:53Z
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@anderspuck The summer offensive will not be a failure, nor will it end the war regardless of how successful it may be. The war will continue until the last Russian troops leave #Ukraine...and that includes #Crimea, which is also Ukraine.Putin has inflicted decades of suffering on the Russian people. Ukraine will prosper after they drive Russia out.#SlavaUkraini
(DIR) Post #AV8XBfxwbeYZwpupgO by SuneAuken@mastodon.world
2023-04-29T07:07:21Z
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@anderspuck Calling it like it is, as always. Thank you for this fine brief explainer. Much appreciated.
(DIR) Post #AV8beqWUpicwuCF4HA by JorgeStolfi@mas.to
2023-04-29T07:57:26Z
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@anderspuck One must distinguish "Putin" from "Russia".PUTIN certainly cannot give up his ambition of ruling over those territories, paying reparations, or handing his collaborators -- and himself -- over to international courts.RUSSIA could do all of that, if and after it removes Putin from power.
(DIR) Post #AV9ZUYYsklhPYKHeHA by oy_reality@c.im
2023-04-29T19:07:44Z
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@anderspuck Ā«..Some people say that if Ukraine's summer offensive is a failure, #Ukraine may have to settle for a peace deal..Ā» - That can be true. It depends on Ukraineās ability to protect itself if its offensive campaign fails.
(DIR) Post #AVAUv93FP1LBdkJ1Dk by osma@mas.to
2023-04-30T05:51:21Z
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@anderspuck I think that's a given. Stalin demanded reparations from Finland (and got them).
(DIR) Post #AVBqVgPT993RigvKL2 by jchook@mastodon.social
2023-04-30T21:27:55Z
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@anderspuck Telling on yourself by omitting Russia's original demands:1. Cease the military operations in Donbas.2. Do not block 85% of Crimea's water supply.3. Do not seek to acquire nuclear weapons.4. Do not seek NATO membership.5. Recognize the will and self-determination of the peoples of Crimea and Donbas
(DIR) Post #AVCTAAI5GXyIEeCRBA by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-05-01T04:41:08Z
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@jchook These were not Russiaās original demands.
(DIR) Post #AVFBIlKeDQ1jjVEE4m by g@propulse.club
2023-05-02T12:04:52Z
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@anderspuck And others also say that who loses the war also pays the bill š§