Post ATi3sMCFU8a8ATGTIW by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #ATi3sImcAzIJa6FSQS by osma@mas.to
2023-01-30T12:18:03Z
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Geez, lots of opinions about Erdogan's attempt to drive a wedge in #NATO unity and what Finland should do about it.1. If Turkey decides to ratify the Finnish application before Swedish, that's their decision.2. it would not change the overall situation: we'd still be in limbo until Hungary also acts.3. If they both do act, it would be silly to not ratify in our own parliament - it would be good for both Finnish and Nordic security.But kowtowing to Erdogan isn't necessary.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sJN7zEV9PLKcL2 by osma@mas.to
2023-02-28T19:43:40Z
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Surprise, surprise, Hungary is now starting its delay games with delegation visits without any agenda.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sJqYDq2Msb67CS by osma@mas.to
2023-03-01T12:48:44Z
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This is how much Hungarian lawmakers REALLY care about Finnish NATO membership. Not having already ratified the agreement is based on nothing but obstructionism, favors to Putin and hoping to extract concessions from EU on the various rule of law disagreements.Not that Turkey is any better.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sLm13fb8r6zWPQ by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-03-01T13:17:19Z
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@osma I would bet that Turkey is more likely ratify than Hungary.Erdogan is a much more independent actor with actual leverage against russia.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sMCFU8a8ATGTIW by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-01T13:19:26Z
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@t_mkdf @osma For Turkey it might be a point in itself to ratify Finland’s accession just as a middle finger to Sweden.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sMjDVYx9oigngW by osma@mas.to
2023-03-01T13:20:57Z
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@anderspuck @t_mkdf Could be - but they're both rather unpredictable actors with stakes on both sides of the game..
(DIR) Post #ATi3sMsmvybqIPARbU by osma@mas.to
2023-03-01T12:59:15Z
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On the other hand, Finland today pre-ratified the agreement in a parliamentary vote of 184 for, 7 against, 7 absent and 1 empty vote. Even the Finnish parliament does have its putinists, but fortunately a very small minority of them.I believe this is the first time ever that the Finnish parliament has ratified an international agreement before it is ready to be implemented. In theory this could mean the agreement could change or never enter into force.https://www.eduskunta.fi/EN/tiedotteet/Pages/Parliament-approved-Finlands-accession-to-NATO.aspx
(DIR) Post #ATi3sNRWqoOm29QBkm by oakster@mas.to
2023-03-01T13:49:29Z
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@osma @anderspuck @t_mkdf Turkey isn’t likely to do anything before the elections. Erdogan needs the nationalist vote so no concessions no matter how logical or reasonable
(DIR) Post #ATi3sO22f3bbrOVLfM by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-03-01T13:58:58Z
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@oakster @osma @anderspuck true. He is driven by internal factors for now. But in view of international relations Turkey is winning anyhow.Just a few examples:As long as there is no total russian victory, Turkey is the master of the black sea.If there's an independent Ukraine there are business opportunities for Turkey.If russia doesn't lose to bad, Turkey will claim it was because of them.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sOZ0gTydVdvg3M by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-03-01T14:10:11Z
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@oakster @osma @anderspuck Fides on the other hand would probably lose their main benefactor if Putin loses.Also their leverage in the EU is dependent on russia being present as an external factor.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sP2mtlnQzzrST2 by oakster@mas.to
2023-03-01T14:22:14Z
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@t_mkdf @osma @anderspuck it might be hard to remember this is a possibility since it's been so long but Erdogan could lose these elections (I wouldn't say likely but it would not be a surprise). If he does a lot will change, although slowly. Even if he wins Erdogan is more pragmatic than Orban which like you said doesn't have so many options
(DIR) Post #ATi3sPSfLYUqIFy7ns by osma@mas.to
2023-03-01T14:44:10Z
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@oakster @t_mkdf @anderspuck Agreed with both. Recall also that part of Erdogan's campaign in 2002 was that his track record of modernized Istanbul infrastructure made him competent to improve the resiliency of the entire country which had been hit by a 7.6 quake in 1999. The last few weeks have literally shook foundations of his promises... and now even the timing of the election is unclear.
(DIR) Post #ATi3sQ27Dkqw4CYR3g by osma@mas.to
2023-03-17T14:40:27Z
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@oakster @t_mkdf @anderspuck Okay then - the clock is ticking for Hungary, where I understand the parliament won't even be assembling before Turkey could finalize the ratification. Before, Orban had promised Hungary won't be the last to ratify.Also notable that Niinistö decided to bring Sweden's ratification to his statement. That speaks to his confidence that the process will finally conclude.
(DIR) Post #ATi6gETKg7XCbAAKZ6 by osma@mas.to
2023-03-17T14:52:43Z
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@oakster @t_mkdf @anderspuck BREAKING - Fidesz Group Leader Máté Kocsis: The Fidesz group supports Finland's NATO accession. The parliamentary vote will take place on March 27.https://twitter.com/zoltanspox/status/1636741222873153536?s=20