Post ATcQ7XjczusGDliyH2 by Adverb@sigmoid.social
(DIR) More posts by Adverb@sigmoid.social
(DIR) Post #ATcQ7XjczusGDliyH2 by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:19:46Z
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Realized the reason for the jarring, afraid tone of the GPT-4 paper: they have a number or believe they have a number (via scaling laws) for when the system should be more capable than any human.
(DIR) Post #ATcQ7YKqlWeG5D8hI8 by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:21:42Z
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Obviously I'm skeptical, but knowing OpenAI and the style of many researchers there: the way that paper is written makes me believe that they sincerely believe they have a number for the scale required for "super-human 'general' intelligence."
(DIR) Post #ATcQ7YwmUUzPyqszPk by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:22:12Z
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That number is likely measured in parameters, petabytes of data, and dollar signs.
(DIR) Post #ATcQ7ZTkVvMRd6JJnk by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:24:26Z
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Whatever we think about the meaningfulness of an AP test re "intelligence" (I'm not a fan), there are tasks that will be materially affected here.
(DIR) Post #ATcQ7ZyafG1zAkjwsC by TedUnderwood@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:25:20Z
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@Adverb Wouldn't you guess that it's actually a sigmoid curve, though, flattening out at the top? I don't intuitively see how just scaling a model on text generated by hominids is going to generate something more capable than any hominid. Faster, yes. Combining more different facets of learning at once, yes. But doing something no hominid could do? idk
(DIR) Post #ATcQAygTG3uSfesxQO by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:25:59Z
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@TedUnderwood There's this idea of "you can't get better than the data you're trained on" right?
(DIR) Post #ATcQCfhqmuP0OLL2eW by TedUnderwood@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:26:19Z
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@Adverb Right. That's my intuition.
(DIR) Post #ATcQUcav61BRx9eisC by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:26:28Z
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@TedUnderwood On the other hand, it has much different data qualitatively and quantitatively than most people do.
(DIR) Post #ATcQUd5lFLqzUo5Lwe by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:28:32Z
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@TedUnderwood There are also concerns re capacity and self improvement. My neurons are slow, they are only so plastic. I don't know -- I'm still not particularly worried about some type of singularity. I'll take it any day before climate change as our shared destiny :)
(DIR) Post #ATcQUddRE8nBBFqFRA by TedUnderwood@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:29:31Z
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@Adverb I definitely see how it gets to 99% percentile across a whole bunch of different tasks that are rarely combined — and I see how it does them much faster. And I would, further, grant that if you can do that much you can also probably, eventually, combine GPT-4s with scratchpads to solve new kinds of problems. I just don't think you do it easily, by extrapolating the scaling curve.
(DIR) Post #ATcQbVYtdqHUAWzdVA by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:30:47Z
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@TedUnderwood Yeah, I think the only sorta "worrying" aspect here (I honestly lose zero sleep over this lol) is that they do show some compounding self-improvement even here, I guess.
(DIR) Post #ATcQlDURgeQ113Xa8u by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:31:41Z
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@TedUnderwood I guess people would probably also argue about "the tech is moving as well" but I think the point that our current systems don't seem to be that great and may saturate is totally fair.
(DIR) Post #ATcQlE6jOJ2kvnS9om by TedUnderwood@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:32:31Z
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@Adverb Yeah. I think things will slow down a bit as we approach "best human performance." But they could slow down a lot and still be faster than our ability to adjust social & political systems appropriately, since we have approximately no ability to do that.
(DIR) Post #ATcQq9fLKgxIbSzbc0 by Adverb@sigmoid.social
2023-03-14T21:33:27Z
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@TedUnderwood Totally agree that "we have these *things* that can pass AP tests" is already devastating the worldview of 99% of the normal people I know.