Post ATWULmf7Wr7TRJu0kC by alex@cybervillains.com
(DIR) More posts by alex@cybervillains.com
(DIR) Post #ATWTW6iXie62a6rVFg by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:34:51Z
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I'm glad everybody got a couple of days of schadenfreude out of their systems, because if SVB deposits are still locked down on Monday then:1) Companies are going to start missing payroll and will fire/furlough normal folks (ACH has to happen Monday for 3/15 paychecks)2) Small-Medium businesses all over will start pulling out of smaller banks, causing national contagion3) There will be massive consolidation into the TBTF banks
(DIR) Post #ATWTfKf7F5EAR7eqK8 by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:36:32Z
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Despite the name, big tech companies had very little exposure to SVB (Roku seems to be the exception). Most big public companies have really sophisticated treasury operations that move money around, deal with all the exchange rate issues, and manage these kinds of risks. Their smaller competitors, however, might evaporate.So if you are pro-Big Bank and pro-Big Tech, then you should hope the SVB wind-down goes poorly.
(DIR) Post #ATWTlFvRlXM7U37ZEO by ramesh3000@mstdn.ca
2023-03-12T00:37:35Z
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@alex 1 is true. 2 is speculation. SVB has weird and unique characteristics (including a gossipy network of startups and VCs uniquely suited to an insta bank run). No reason to think it'll trigger a broader contagion.
(DIR) Post #ATWTxWEWxYCRXJtXUW by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:39:51Z
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@ramesh3000 Every small business owner who has to make payroll is paying really close attention to this. Yes, SVB was done in by the herd mentality of VCs, but if CNBC starts showing employees carrying boxes out of hundreds of companies this week you bet the fear will spread.
(DIR) Post #ATWU8HGiwDH2JH3D0q by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:41:48Z
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This whole thing would be less scary if some major fraud or crazy bet had done SVB in, but "they didn't properly hedge for this speed of interest rate hikes" is the kind of problem you could see happening at the other 7,000 community banks in the US.
(DIR) Post #ATWUIjoTfJItjbpJaa by tom4okstate@masto.ai
2023-03-12T00:43:39Z
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@alex @ramesh3000 I feel like the average small business owner is far enough removed from the goings-on inside of silicon valley proper that this probably won't have that sort of salience for them.
(DIR) Post #ATWULmf7Wr7TRJu0kC by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:44:14Z
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Another issue where the instant culture-warification of the discussion is not helpful.The same people blaming this on "wokeness" are also playing chicken with the debt limit. If you like bank failures, wait until the Treasury can't redeem bonds.Terrible example of this trend: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848705/Woke-head-risk-assessment-Silicon-Valley-Bank-accused-prioritizing-diversity-issues.html
(DIR) Post #ATWUQ5h8hyNhctttSa by ramesh3000@mstdn.ca
2023-03-12T00:44:56Z
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@alex I can't disprove your prediction but I don't buy it. This is extreme SV inside baseball. I doubt a used car dealer in Topeka is suddenly going to withdraw his cash because David Sacks is pooping his pants in Twitter.
(DIR) Post #ATWURnRBYkbRa7FeJE by smach@fosstodon.org
2023-03-12T00:45:13Z
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@alex If the failure of the nation's *16th-largest bank serving tech startups* causes businesses to pull money out of smaller community banks with a completely different portfolio, those businesses aren't paying attention. Smaller & mid-sized banks will likely be touting that they serve different, arguably less volatile sectors.
(DIR) Post #ATWUc9e9qCRdMGG4f2 by Viss@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T00:47:11Z
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@alex suddenly all the folks with gold or silver bars or mattresses full of cash are smiling
(DIR) Post #ATWUfprVLGav9gFx7Q by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T00:47:50Z
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@Viss I don't think we should forget that some of the people who started the whispering are accelerationists.
(DIR) Post #ATWUlPnv8ZJa4lEyZM by kflanagan@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T00:48:49Z
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@alex They are working with more volatile companies by nature, aren't they? I'm hoping that's an explainer. I was working at a bank (IT not banker) in 08, it was scary, but there was a lot of outright theft happening too. (see Colonial bank)
(DIR) Post #ATWUrlLVxShUckyqzg by samuel_wade@mstdn.ca
2023-03-12T00:49:56Z
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@alex Daily Mail seems a far more harmful import than TikTok at this point, but it’s aligned with the groups that’d otherwise be most likely to make an issue of that, so they don’t.
(DIR) Post #ATWUtPaFqB67i0f488 by Viss@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T00:49:58Z
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@alex yup. we were svb. things are already weird. im pretty sure we'll be ok, but already getting pings from other banks and customers who use payment systems that know we use svb. emails like 'we know you use svb so we've frozen all deposits until you change banks'.
(DIR) Post #ATWUuxjSMZV3uLhlnk by kflanagan@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T00:50:30Z
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@alex That consolidation increasing is _not_ what we need, but probably do need some better guardrails for smaller banks.
(DIR) Post #ATWV4DQVNhOxBnFjxA by docbrianS@mastodon.online
2023-03-12T00:52:14Z
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@alex I'm buying (1), but not seeing (2) and (3). Seems like SVB is a bit of a unicorn in terms of their business model/market and place in the stock market. How many "smaller banks" have similar exposure to the startup community?
(DIR) Post #ATWVpQCBiw7aP048VU by arvrrob@twit.social
2023-03-12T01:00:43Z
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@alex Mint that coin...Mint that coin...Mint that coin. 😉
(DIR) Post #ATWVr4I48bQh2lbGpU by tryggth@mathstodon.xyz
2023-03-12T01:00:46Z
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@alex yup
(DIR) Post #ATWVtSckdXun5mPscS by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T01:01:34Z
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@arvrrob Would make for a couple of good heist movies.
(DIR) Post #ATWWA0QUjDk4YsZZxY by arvrrob@twit.social
2023-03-12T01:04:31Z
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@alex Ya think they would know where you got a $1Trillion dollar coin?😜
(DIR) Post #ATWWebiUeGIsu2aEsq by mmasnick@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T01:09:57Z
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@alex and, you know, the comments are just as dumb as you'd expect:
(DIR) Post #ATWXX3IgJDcI5cTIMC by jschuh@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T01:19:52Z
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@alex Fair point that they didn't do anything fraudulent or crazy, but they were among the group of banks that successfully lobbied to have the stress test limits raised from $100bn to $250bn a few years ago. None of us can know if compliance with those stress tests would have prevented this, but it sure is the kind of thing that would have required them to maintain more liquidity and just hedge more carefully in general.BTW, I still want to see the FDIC put forth a public plan early next week, where banking customers are made whole (or as close to whole as reasonably possible). I just think it's also fair to say that SVB knowingly flew a bit closer to the sun than was safe, and that's why their wings melted.
(DIR) Post #ATWXrcORXmoAihyOqu by jbaggs@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T01:23:35Z
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@alex I'm pretty well acclimated to the idea that anyone instantly jumping to culture war talking points has a different agenda than fixing the problem at this point.
(DIR) Post #ATWYwcg80jBl0UCB8a by kkarhan@mstdn.social
2023-03-12T01:35:41Z
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@alex The sheer fact that the USA still has this archaic "debt ceiling" bs is the reason why I'd rank it lower than any EU member:Cuz fiscal hostage politricks are a major "nope!" for any other investments and I sincerely hope the #dollarcentrism will fall and be abolished just like GBP, Gold & Silver before.
(DIR) Post #ATWZzGPjLVYUmHLg1o by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T01:47:22Z
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@mmasnick I changed my mind, Section 230 needs to go.
(DIR) Post #ATWaKkl3is4Ey9ZWCW by krupo@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T01:51:16Z
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@alex #3 works fine in Canada Caveat: also, way stronger regulation and oversight. But the "big 6" are rather stable....
(DIR) Post #ATWcH1iOvzlCJKgBqi by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T02:12:56Z
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@MrsMouse @Viss Better than sending their payments into a bankruptcy black hole.
(DIR) Post #ATWeTWbc6rthV1aljE by arvrrob@twit.social
2023-03-12T02:37:37Z
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@alex According to what has been communicated, those with unsecured depositors will see some money (enough to make payrolls) toward the end on the week. It is doubtful, that companies will fire/furlough for a few day miss. Folks won't be happy but c'est la vie. SVB was a weird duck as banks go. Read Noah Smith's analysis. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-was-there-a-run-on-silicon-valley?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=107667545&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
(DIR) Post #ATWensrX4MUOJqkIka by williamgunn@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T02:41:19Z
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@alex @Viss I really don't think size is the story here. Most community banks make a lot more of their revenue by making loans than SVB. Not a lot of demand for small business loans from startups that just raised a bunch of cash, so SVB had concentrated risk in a way other small banks aren't. Hope everything gets worked out!
(DIR) Post #ATWgEV8rTAn0WZ6iWG by rudyschwartz@dobbs.town
2023-03-12T02:57:21Z
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@alex That's exactly what I would expect from the The Daily Mail. They're currently cheerleading for the UK to abandon international law on human rights.
(DIR) Post #ATWgPEXJY6TsCyf8SW by rudyschwartz@dobbs.town
2023-03-12T02:59:20Z
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@alex And you would think it would have crossed Jerome Powell's mind at some point too.
(DIR) Post #ATWhT9izTrFEOiYfZo by MikeBon@mstdn.social
2023-03-12T03:11:12Z
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@alex here is another good summation of what happened to SVB, from a financial point of view. https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-demise-of-silicon-valley-bank
(DIR) Post #ATWhW9v9CxUFsHg0Lg by diptansu@mstdn.social
2023-03-12T03:11:46Z
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@alex @mmasnick wait, why?
(DIR) Post #ATWkFV69W7c0UkZXd2 by smach@fosstodon.org
2023-03-12T03:42:17Z
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@alex This “whole thing” would be less scary if people like SVB's CEO hadn't pushed to roll back post-2008 regulations. But they did, and the last administration was happy to comply.“Free market capitalism” for him, while he rakes in the $$; the rest of us chumps get to foot the bill when he loses.I was a business editor years ago and covered a local bank failure. Same story over & over & over: gambling w other people's money. It's really getting old.https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/business/silicon-valley-bank-stock.html
(DIR) Post #ATWkStBVHB40xhSXCa by SamTheGeek@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T03:44:47Z
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@alex @mmasnick Maybe they didn't have a head of risk assessment because everyone they interviewed for the role ran screaming out of the room?
(DIR) Post #ATWkURioLwkSMnmURk by grandmaBates@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T03:44:52Z
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@alex How did Ersapah go from the CRO in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East to the whole bank's CRO in a little over one paragraph? Also, did they have the same issues under her jurisdiction as the rest of the organization? The article does not indicate anything.
(DIR) Post #ATWnNGmMwGIOGRiNkm by mybarkingdogs@ohai.social
2023-03-12T04:17:22Z
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@alex This has bothered me for a while since the birdsite days - it's like, while everything is political it's often *not* political in the sense of finding an immediate political attack angle/immediate set of hate sinks to dump on, *especially* because the people who do the most harm have no issue with offering up some sacrificial lambs
(DIR) Post #ATWqn3NvezxM7AGmCO by melanie@queer.party
2023-03-12T04:55:38Z
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@alex they are bad actors. We don't need to point out their hypocrisy. We just need to say they are pooping in the swimming pool. They don't care about the well-being of the country or citizens. They care about wielding power and crushing human beings who are different.
(DIR) Post #ATWv0aMUlQTjyJJ5fc by jeff7091@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T05:42:53Z
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@alex these rate hikes have been going on for a long time. SVB failed to act
(DIR) Post #ATWv8Tp6xQvM0fSLfE by jeff7091@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T05:44:21Z
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@alex treasury ops as a service? #TooSoon
(DIR) Post #ATWyit0v4qYIQM1yxk by blacktraffic@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T06:24:31Z
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@alex whatever the Daily Mail was, it has descended into running these same kind of click-bait scare stories, regardless of any actual facts. (They praised the Truss budget, which resulted in her having the shortest tenure of any UK prime minister, if you want an idea of how much of a handle they’ve got on reality.)
(DIR) Post #ATX12UhzLy0gk5eadk by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T06:50:31Z
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@jeff7091 I think there are FinTech companies that do that, yeah.
(DIR) Post #ATX32AtTDxNzCE027c by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T07:12:42Z
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@MikeBon This is very good, thank you.
(DIR) Post #ATX8kZ4rAds6iGJNLc by Di4na@hachyderm.io
2023-03-12T08:16:54Z
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@alex They will not be. The FDIC has been publishing *since Friday* that all cheques will clear and that the branches will be open. Trying to get all the money out will not work, but payroll will work. The FDIC has both experience, history, and expertise there. This is not a scrappy startup.This is literally the experts in keeping things running in the worst case, at low cost, in a way that impacts the least amount of people possible.
(DIR) Post #ATXK2Cv7O6WwhbN6Xo by ondrej@mastodon.rfc1925.org
2023-03-12T10:23:16Z
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@alex We don’t even know what caused the crash yet, but even if it was because the risk management, isn’t this shifting the blame from top management who couldn’t hire proper replacement for the role in the US? As far as I know the “run on the bank” happened in the US because of some “advice” from VC people?
(DIR) Post #ATXLxAlEBnJEStTMAq by bertwells@mathstodon.xyz
2023-03-12T10:44:48Z
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@alex It isn’t schadenfreude to note that your new-found Too Small to Fail economic wisdom will never, ever, be applied on behalf of families who are about to lose SNAP benefits.Hungry kids just ain’t a “contagion” like that, huh
(DIR) Post #ATXrsZ6lR5nj3vOPpI by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T16:42:31Z
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@Di4na They have not said that "all cheques will clear", they have only guaranteed $250k on Monday. That is less than one payroll run for *lots* of companies (including my own).Yes, they are the experts, and they are absolutely aware of what happens if another bank fails next week (a nationwide run), so I'm hopeful that they will figure something out (most likely a sale).
(DIR) Post #ATY4UZHSRShQ3FHYlE by dec23k@mastodon.ie
2023-03-12T19:03:48Z
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@alex Daily Mail has been dogshit for decades.Amanda Palmer even responded to them in song, about 10 years ago:https://amandapalmer.bandcamp.com/track/dear-daily-mail-live-official-bootleg
(DIR) Post #ATY5QtUbS5mJX9F7HE by Di4na@hachyderm.io
2023-03-12T19:14:23Z
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@alex they did say that all cheques will clear.'The FDIC, as receiver, said: “The main office and all branches of Silicon Valley Bank will reopen on Monday, March 13, 2023. “The DINB will maintain Silicon Valley Bank’s normal business hours. “Banking activities will resume no later than Monday, March 13, including on-line banking and other services. “Silicon Valley Bank’s official checks will continue to clear."'
(DIR) Post #ATY5h0kmDxIugbUdgO by Di4na@hachyderm.io
2023-03-12T19:15:07Z
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@alex https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html
(DIR) Post #ATY5h1FyLyG2FM5YJ6 by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T19:17:21Z
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@Di4na I'm pretty sure this means "checks written by SVB themselves up to this point, such as cashier checks" will clear, not "depositors can write themselves a check for $5M and get their money to Chase", which would be a great loophole around the $250k limit.
(DIR) Post #ATYNipXGhXJheHBx4a by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T22:39:22Z
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Looks like the Feds agreed with me and got a deal done, just as another bank failed. Thank goodness they are moving aggressively to stop this.https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337
(DIR) Post #ATYNu54hGdCZ1nBzRg by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T22:41:17Z
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(DIR) Post #ATYNvnTVfq271RcIq0 by malwaretech@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T22:41:26Z
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@alex Cool that the article id is 1337
(DIR) Post #ATYNxa0GjRb5otn1Ae by Viss@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T22:41:58Z
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@alex nailed it
(DIR) Post #ATYNzSytoL1McX34mO by longobord@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T22:42:06Z
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@alex Wow, that's impressive. I had heard "some" uninsured deposits would be available, since they were already in talks to sell the bank. Good to see that some has changed to all.
(DIR) Post #ATYO10Tgkz64nXBVSa by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-12T22:42:31Z
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@malwaretech Was Yellen in MOD or LOD?
(DIR) Post #ATYO67rkiPhZ9xshTk by mattblaze@federate.social
2023-03-12T22:43:33Z
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@alex @malwaretech Made me laugh.
(DIR) Post #ATYOI4qdlI6LH63m7c by malwaretech@infosec.exchange
2023-03-12T22:45:38Z
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@alex 🤣
(DIR) Post #ATYOofPvKmZbxU6TZ2 by godzero@sfba.social
2023-03-12T22:51:38Z
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@alex The UK arm has found a buyer.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64934348
(DIR) Post #ATYP4HMsW3J20M7iD2 by Beeks@mstdn.party
2023-03-12T22:54:29Z
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@alex thank goodness? My friend, may I interest you in a pack of marshmallows as I tell you about the joy of watching it all burn down?
(DIR) Post #ATYPKH5pJ35xmjm6M4 by noplasticshower@zirk.us
2023-03-12T22:57:18Z
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@alex @malwaretech 8lgm
(DIR) Post #ATYPWN8wdZE61b0BLE by nikclayton@mastodon.social
2023-03-12T22:59:33Z
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@alex the hubris necessary to write "the Feds agreed with me".Thought leaders gonna thought lead, I guess.
(DIR) Post #ATYVqJUmVbKQEC6k40 by womble@infosec.exchange
2023-03-13T00:10:21Z
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@alex claiming that "taxpayers" won't foot the bill for covering all deposits is deeply disingenuous. The money will come from other banks, which will undoubtedly raise their fees to customers to cover the cost, and (most) customers of banks are, drumroll, taxpayers!Any losses from the deposit insurance fund should be made up from SVB executive bonuses and salary already paid, because they clearly didn't earn that money.
(DIR) Post #ATYYjgTYyBG1Ks4Ie8 by Bam@sfba.social
2023-03-13T00:42:41Z
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@alex @_L1vY_ They’re not locked down on Monday.
(DIR) Post #ATYZUytUJE8c4KkP7Q by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-13T00:51:20Z
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@Bam @_L1vY_ Timestamps.
(DIR) Post #ATYZWZ5bDm3WcHASbQ by PattyHanson@mastodon.social
2023-03-13T00:51:32Z
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@alex Question: What stops one or ALL depositors from showing up tomorrow, asking for their respective deposits IN CASH or check, and closing their account? Answer: Nothing that I've read so far. If a successful bid was received before the deadline today, it hasn't been announced. How comfortable are oligarchs banking with an unknown entity?...Depositors will have access to ALL THEIR MONEY starting Monday, March 13...https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337
(DIR) Post #ATYZcl0DqBv9InbaXA by Bam@sfba.social
2023-03-13T00:52:44Z
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@alex @_L1vY_ Yep, it was an if. Good news is a solid response by the grownups that stopped the parade of horrible, as opposed to the infants that deregulated that led it to.
(DIR) Post #ATYdIlbuGrQdDDxHqC by eigenman@mstdn.social
2023-03-13T01:33:55Z
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@alex yup, what's even scarier is the amount of fediversers in the This is Fine camp
(DIR) Post #ATYdlvzUkuZxnwteca by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-03-13T01:39:02Z
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@ncweaver @alex "... odds are good that the $ onramps/offramps for cryptocurrency just got napalmed." -- the silver lining of the cloud.
(DIR) Post #ATYe5NLpFtQoA9c0Dw by ncweaver@thecooltable.wtf
2023-03-13T01:42:39Z
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@lauren @alex Oh hell yeah, why I've got my popcorn machine warming up...
(DIR) Post #ATYegTi0a1nMazgC7U by jon@tara.social
2023-03-13T01:49:25Z
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@alex Fed != Feds
(DIR) Post #ATYewXvwdkkUKdrO7c by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-13T01:52:19Z
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@jon FDIC+Federal Reserve+Treasury
(DIR) Post #ATYiq144KhkmTBnlmS by tasket@infosec.exchange
2023-03-13T02:35:53Z
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@lauren @ncweaver @alex I really, really don't think a deal as described in that Treasury press release is going to do anything to #cryptocurrency on-ramps except maybe enhance them.Maybe I'm just not well-enough versed on the subject of finance, but there were a lot of crypto pushers operating through that bank #SVB and they just told the country "give us stuff, or the country's economy gets_it." (See yesterday's comments from that guy who looks like a big toe.)In my view, they executed a threat in order to get something their sicko-money revolution needs to continue.
(DIR) Post #ATYnOWFhHhA4rIws64 by ncweaver@thecooltable.wtf
2023-03-12T01:46:22Z
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@alex Well, hedge for the speed of interest rate hikes, play accounting games to hide the damage on their books, and have >90% of their deposit base beyond the FDIC limit and so prone to running at a the drop of a hat...But still, I'm hoping (and betting) that CityChaseBigCo buys the entire asset & liability portfolio for a packet of stale peanut M&Ms, making a tidy profit and stopping the run by making all depositors whole in the process.
(DIR) Post #ATYtWq0QK9leAJ9d0y by metricmike@ruby.social
2023-03-13T04:35:41Z
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@alex jesus, thiel literally coordinated a group of investors to perform a bank run.
(DIR) Post #ATYzutEyY4Yis9oTHk by CapeHeaven@cybervillains.com
2023-03-13T05:47:18Z
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@alex I’ll never forget when a bank I worked for was taken over by federal regulators in 1990. My boss was at the main office that day, and she said they swarmed in and stood guard, with their arms crossed and legs spread, at every door and elevator in the place making sure no one touched anything or went anywhere. She said it was like the Gestapo had taken over. Within 15 minutes they had every lock in the place changed. It was a really unsettling time.
(DIR) Post #ATZa31mWH2D61pgO3c by EdSanders@mstdn.social
2023-03-13T12:32:11Z
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@alex sure, they went 8 months without a chief risk officer (who cashed in on her way out), but let’s blame someone who has been there for, like, 20 minutes
(DIR) Post #ATZaJIDIwoZVcny0ki by EdSanders@mstdn.social
2023-03-13T12:35:09Z
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@alex not really. It’s not like the fed didn’t tell you what they were going to do, even chumps outside of banking (like me) knew what was coming. They just screwed the pooch because they’re incompetent at best, & quite possibly crooks.
(DIR) Post #ATa8k5gn1BN12chxy4 by marypcbuk@hachyderm.io
2023-03-13T19:00:54Z
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@alex @ChazBrenchley luckily most community banks don't have Thiel telling everyone in town to take their money out of the bank