Post ATWDTrvy78dysy3JU8 by PattiA@mstdn.social
(DIR) More posts by PattiA@mstdn.social
(DIR) Post #ATTK6joGGphdEVU8US by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:05:32Z
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By popular demand, here is a short 🧵 about Nord Stream. I find the explanation about a pro-Ukrainian group being behind the Nord Stream sabotage unlikely for several reasons. First, the suspected yacht is totally unsuitable for such diving operations. It does not have the maneuverability to stay in the same position above the diving spot. Also it would be very inconvenient to handle hundreds of kilos of explosives on that platform. 1/
(DIR) Post #ATTK8kNf7PhNaD09su by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:05:46Z
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Second, the diving itself. It is extremely challenging to dive to 80 meters of water, and you would have to set aside all safety precautions to do it from a yacht. But more importantly, you only have 10 minutes of actual time on the bottom to do any work. Normally you would solve that problems by having multiple teams of divers that begin with 10 minute intervals and replace each other at the bottom. But here, supposedly, a single team of divers managed to do it. 2/
(DIR) Post #ATTKA5c3fBWzitNKLY by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:06:08Z
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Third, because the divers only have 10 minutes of time on the bottom, they would need to arrive at exactly the right spot. There would be no time to search for the pipeline on the bottom. So you would need to locate the pipeline from the surface and extend a guideline with a remote controlled underwater robot. All in all we are looking at a time-consuming operation – perhaps several days at each location. 3/
(DIR) Post #ATTKBEKSk4dx2sgmHI by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:06:23Z
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It just does not make operational sense to do it that way. Why did they not rent a motor boat with better maneuverability? Why did they chose the spot where the water is deepest and the current is strongest? Count me as skeptical. 4/
(DIR) Post #ATTKClXsjIpCM0hKsq by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:06:39Z
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So what do I think is going on? I still think Russia is the most likely culprit behind the Nord Stream sabotage, but the West has no interest in accusing Russia officially. I have made this video where I explain that argument. So what do you do if you can't point to Russia, but you also don't want people to think you did it? A group of individuals without government affiliation is the perfect suspect. It almost makes the problem disappear. 5/ https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4
(DIR) Post #ATTKDkTOCcTbJk46qm by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-10T12:06:52Z
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So I think journalists need to think also about why information is leaked, and who benefits. I don't know what is up and down. But I do find it puzzling that a little bit of leaked information now has the entire press corps running in a direction that is super convenient for NATO and Ukraine. And no Western official has actually endorsed this information, so nobody's reputation is on the line. /end
(DIR) Post #ATTKPGZRClYq3GO1PE by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-03-10T12:08:49Z
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@anderspuck It doesn't make sense, but things often happen in ways that don't make sense, especially when non-state actors are involved. I didn't realise how short the window of operation at the target was. If a small team really did this they're lucky they didn't lose people to accidents or the bends.
(DIR) Post #ATTKn4yHywS91lMi3s by osma@mas.to
2023-03-10T12:13:12Z
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@anderspuck Some weight should also be placed on the analysis of who published this. NYT does not have the best of reputations regarding their adherence to verifiable facts.
(DIR) Post #ATTMDNQa5Hdfkghb8q by amerika@noagendasocial.com
2023-03-10T12:28:53Z
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@anderspuck And Western officials have been rather silent on the whole thing...
(DIR) Post #ATTMIUfQays3eX5QnI by amerika@noagendasocial.com
2023-03-10T12:30:08Z
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@anderspuck With GPS, it is not hard for them to arrive at the right spot and sink a buoy. My guess is that a drone was used to place explosives.
(DIR) Post #ATTSnC8m7uIgtZpuKG by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-03-10T13:42:50Z
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@anderspuckThanks for your insight, Anders. It seems the tankies have also reached the same conclusion about the improbability of the NYT report, but only because they're still desperately clinging to Sy Hersh's long-debunked cockamamy story. Everything that happens in the world for them must somehow be blamed on the US because America Bad™️.
(DIR) Post #ATU0Meoenh3OSBwZEm by jpelckolsen@expressional.social
2023-03-10T19:59:00Z
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@anderspuck I think your analysis makes perfect sense, but I’m not sure I understand why it’s super convenient for NATO? Is it because verifiable evidence that Russia did it would force us to react with measures that we’d rather avoid like article 5? I guess it’s not an attack on any one nation in NATO so we wouldn’t *have* to retaliate?
(DIR) Post #ATV74DFBT57MZ5SmkC by MiaLis79@mastodon.social
2023-03-11T08:48:49Z
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@anderspuck This makes complete sense.After reading your thread and listening to your video, I tend to agree with your assessment. Sort of like using reverse psychology on a toddler and/or Russia's own psychological tactics on Russia.
(DIR) Post #ATVhxYNmAoywOzAbUe by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-03-11T15:42:13Z
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@anderspuck Hersh's theory is overdetermined. And the new theory is underdetermined. I didn't know that the boat was basically unsuited for this (could not stay reliably on one place e.g.).
(DIR) Post #ATW1U6shLFURnGs4nY by graef@infosec.exchange
2023-03-11T19:20:58Z
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@anderspuck Thank you for sharing. I found your observations in October the most astute assessment of the information we had at the time. But I sincerely doubt Western services would go so far as to create false trails protecting Russia out of fear of escalation. Any planted evidence by Russia would much more likely point at their "Anglo-Saxon" archenemies.And at this point, it no longer seems far fetched that the same circle who did the risk/benefit calculation on the botched Dugin assassination was also ill-advised enough to have conceived this.We'll see.
(DIR) Post #ATW3ecYWdApsppZjEm by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-03-11T19:45:19Z
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@graef Thanks. My problem with that is more whether they would have the technical prowess to pull it off, and if it is at all doable from a sailing yacht. BTW I’m not saying the West would have created this evidence. I’m sure they actually did look into this yacht at some point, just like I assume they looked into a range of other trails.
(DIR) Post #ATWDTrvy78dysy3JU8 by PattiA@mstdn.social
2023-03-11T21:35:17Z
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@anderspuck please, stop. Have compassion for people being brutalized for NO REASON