Post ATAViYUXWpcAOu04rQ by frankcat@mstdn.social
(DIR) More posts by frankcat@mstdn.social
(DIR) Post #AT9NbPyxm36HBuM9bs by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-02-28T21:10:27Z
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I sent this chart to a dear friend yesterday because I think it's important for people to understand the risks they're taking even though the message we all get is that COVID is over. Big picture: with every infection, the risk of every complication goes up.You have not "gotten it over with" after your first infection.I'm tired of it. You're tired of it. But #CovidIsNotOver.
(DIR) Post #AT9OAXNiFvQuH5g9vk by Axomamma@mastodon.online
2023-02-28T21:16:47Z
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@grammargirl I wear my KN95 into every store. It's vanishingly rare that I see another person in a mask. When I was in the bank this morning, a customer was telling the bank teller that he was still out of work because of COVID. Neither were wearing a mask. #Foolish #COVIDIsNotOver
(DIR) Post #AT9OjDU6Dy2AhVCcNc by Axomamma@mastodon.online
2023-02-28T21:17:32Z
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@grammargirl To be clear - he was still out of work because HE had COVID.
(DIR) Post #AT9OjEHNGlRvAKFyBU by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-02-28T21:23:01Z
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@Axomamma Do you mean he had long COVID problems or he was actually in a bank without a mask while *having* COVID and announcing it to the world?
(DIR) Post #AT9Op9bbYihGPLXoAa by shannonkay@bookstodon.com
2023-02-28T21:24:10Z
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@grammargirl I've never stopped masking indoors in public. My 86 year old grandmother got COVID this month. The urgent care didn't even test her for it, and said she had "some virus that's going around". Someone else in her home tested positive, and that's when she got tested and we found out that she actually had COVID.
(DIR) Post #AT9Or0H1E5Yq2nnUY4 by Axomamma@mastodon.online
2023-02-28T21:24:30Z
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@grammargirl It wasn't exactly clear. Initially I assumed it was the former but given I'm in fucking Arizona, I believe it to be the latter.
(DIR) Post #AT9Z6kV2dj4jIVVFia by kevinrns@mstdn.social
2023-02-28T23:09:00Z
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@grammargirl So to understand the values on the left side, at three infections, hospitalization is seven to eight times more likely than a generalized person?
(DIR) Post #AT9ZAHzmYkn63GZOXQ by voron@mstdn.party
2023-02-28T23:11:43Z
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@grammargirl unfortunately our media, politicians and that includes the sitting administration are immune to facts..Intelligent well informed people doing their individual best is no substitute for rational effective public health policy
(DIR) Post #AT9a9NbIKnxz6GFKHA by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-02-28T23:30:54Z
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@grammargirl Hi. I was interested in those data and have pulled the Nature paper this chart references: "Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection" by Benjamin Bowe, Yan Xie & Ziyad Al-Aly, 2022But I can't find that chart in that paper. Do you have the original or link to where you got this? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
(DIR) Post #AT9aLNNsxrJPu7h7fU by kristineehunt@historians.social
2023-02-28T23:33:07Z
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@grammargirl UGH, just recovered from second COVID infection over here, with a couple comorbidities. I'm still masking in busy indoor places like the grocery store and spend most of my time at home. I see maybe 5% of people masking in public here in western Oregon. Not excited at all by this graph!
(DIR) Post #AT9cHDjl5faIjZ4VIu by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-02-28T23:54:54Z
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@DroidEngineer Somebody made the chart from the data in the paper. I don't recall where I got the image. But I did check it against the data in the paper, and it accurately represents the results. It's just a more understandable way of visualizing the data than the way the numbers were presented in the paper.
(DIR) Post #AT9cXqUUlwyfYmrN9U by DiverDoc@mstdn.ca
2023-02-28T23:14:26Z
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@kevinrns @grammargirl I believe that is correct.
(DIR) Post #AT9cXrM1YvnOEnu7aS by kevinrns@mstdn.social
2023-02-28T23:16:09Z
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@DiverDoc @grammargirl Thanks.
(DIR) Post #AT9cXs4gsrWaTKnnCy by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-02-28T23:57:55Z
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@kevinrns @DiverDoc Seconding that you are correct. I refreshed my memory on what a "hazard ratio" means before posting just to be sure I understood.
(DIR) Post #AT9cbpMYuMOXDi31Zw by planteater24x7@mstdn.social
2023-02-28T23:58:40Z
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@grammargirl It's especially interesting to see that some of these are concave upward.
(DIR) Post #AT9cn4ekO85PpwutBw by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:00:41Z
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@planteater24x7 I'm not sure I'd read *too*. much into that since the error bars get bigger for the third infection since there were fewer people in the study who met that criteria.
(DIR) Post #AT9d9BVxZOgJTiLjKy by planteater24x7@mstdn.social
2023-03-01T00:04:40Z
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@grammargirl Good point! And I suppose it might indeed be unwise to take the second derivative of a function whose x-axis is integers. But the trend is definitely up, and not necessarily slowing down.
(DIR) Post #AT9djUoDJLmtkBCao4 by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T00:11:11Z
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@grammargirl I'm 100% behind using the right visualization for the data. Thanks for the explanation!
(DIR) Post #AT9etBSyBIw4bURtJY by clubantietam@sfba.social
2023-03-01T00:01:26Z
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@DroidEngineer @grammargirl Some additional commentary on that graph, if you are interested from Zeynep Tufekci - her main point is that the data is comparing people who got reinfected vs people who did not get reinfected. It is not comparing the effects of multiple infections https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1628082168902692885?s=20
(DIR) Post #AT9etC5brdqOXKWkXg by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:24:12Z
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@clubantietam @DroidEngineer Thanks. If I understand correctly, her point is that it is comparing people who got infected once to other people who got infected twice instead of following individuals and comparing what happened to that individual after one infection versus what happened to that same individual after a second infection. But that's what I thought the study was already, and it doesn't seem like a big problem to me (and Nature Medicine is a high-quality journal).
(DIR) Post #AT9fDUUFAn1xO1jBaq by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:27:51Z
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@clubantietam @DroidEngineer The only problem with the design I can think of is if you believe people who get reinfected are an inherently unhealthier group than people who don't. (And I don't see why that would be.)I actually think the biggest criticism someone could have of the paper is that it's all data from veterans — so not a group that is representative of the general population.
(DIR) Post #AT9fKCYYEjejnqwV3w by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T00:26:18Z
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@clubantietam @grammargirl Thanks for that link. The professor does try to explain why the chart is misleading, but actually, I think the point she is making is that the chart is fake and based on a misinterpretation of the data.My spidey senses went off when I saw the OP of the chart say it was "proven."I have the original paper published in Nature and have just started reading it, but if we're passing around a fake chart and giving it legitimacy we should know that and correct it.
(DIR) Post #AT9fKD6EDWavUIhOYS by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:29:05Z
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@DroidEngineer @clubantietam Agreed. That's why I checked it before posting, but if I missed something, let me know.
(DIR) Post #AT9fihIRb4Kq5m5aLY by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T00:33:27Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam Maybe I'm the one missing something. :)Are these different graphs?
(DIR) Post #AT9fmTAk3JDFReHjpQ by ravenonthill@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T00:34:07Z
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@grammargirl it’s Russian roulette. The odds of some sort of long-term consequences of infection are one in five so by the time you’ve had three infections the odds are nearly one in two and by the time you’ve had five they’re worse than two in three.Infection does confer some immunity, but it doesn’t last. There are conflicting studies that say the chances of long Covid drop with reinfection, others say it rises, but even with the best odds you’re still sometimes gonna roll snake eyes.
(DIR) Post #AT9g1x11NVquLV7WxU by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:37:00Z
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@DroidEngineer @clubantietam I think he's the guy who made the graph from the data in the paper.
(DIR) Post #AT9gAAaOo5aekcaTGi by magdalen@mastodon.wellperns.com
2023-03-01T00:38:28Z
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@grammargirl Hi Mignon - Could you please include a link to the reliable source/article from whence came the graphic you're posting? That would make it easier for readers to (as we ought to!) check your facts before we forward your message along. Many thanks...
(DIR) Post #AT9gMDqWVnLIKwsObw by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T00:40:37Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam That's what I thought, too. And this is the chart that the person retweeting (TomKitten) raised authenticity questions about and that Zeynep Tufekci confirmed is made up and based on a misunderstanding of the data?
(DIR) Post #AT9grEQ6Qboz5sIwuO by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:46:16Z
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@DroidEngineer @clubantietam Yes, but if you just look at Figure 5 in the paper, and compare it to the chart I posted, the data matches.
(DIR) Post #AT9hI3BOJfBA3pDBMO by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T00:51:05Z
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@magdalen Sure! Here is the paper. The image I posted is a different way of displaying the data that is in Figure 5. I did a spot check of the data, and it all matched what is in that figure. It's just an easier way of visualizing it. Some people are questioning why the figure is a different format from the one in the paper, but nobody has told me they found any differences in the data points. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
(DIR) Post #AT9htYrdULRf27rFUu by magdalen@mastodon.wellperns.com
2023-03-01T00:57:53Z
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@grammargirl Thanks!
(DIR) Post #AT9mLUyZwAGytqgMVM by KatieLoves2Read@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T01:47:44Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer It is possible that people who are less healthy are more likely to get tested. Either because of other health concerns or because they are in a medical setting for their symptoms. Meaning the measured hazard ratio will be higher than a group containing an accurate proportion of people who had minor symptoms and no test or only a home test.
(DIR) Post #AT9nzcal8naE3cEkTo by drclareharris@newsie.social
2023-03-01T02:06:10Z
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@grammargirl Thank you. This needs to be repeated over and over. Because #CovidIsNotOver. 🦠
(DIR) Post #AT9oYuzYipUZG8fRuC by KatieLoves2Read@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T01:48:07Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer Those home test people are less likely to end up in the data set unless the population is all being tested on a set frequency instead of testing being a function of being sick enough to seek care at the VA.
(DIR) Post #AT9oYvhW5OebSTEYQC by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T02:12:35Z
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@KatieLoves2Read @clubantietam @DroidEngineer Those are great points, so I dug deeper into the data and supplementary tables! It looks like they controlled for differences in the underlying health of the people in the different groups. And they say if people got a home test or were asymptomatic it actually would have resulted in them underestimating the risks from reinfection (because they would have been included in the control group).https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3#Sec20
(DIR) Post #AT9pq4aQP1dPtSeg88 by justafrog@mstdn.social
2023-03-01T02:26:54Z
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@grammargirl This sort of research makes me think I need a good five year span in which things very clearly don't get worse before I'll start to chill out about covid.A lot of research is skimpy because it's hard to do a long-term study on something which didn't last very long yet, but the results which are visible already suggest covid dings you a little with each pass.A lot of little dings ends up leaving me severely dented, so I'll try to avoid it as much as possible.
(DIR) Post #AT9pu3dprG7s7Z9OEq by inthehands@hachyderm.io
2023-03-01T02:27:33Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer “The only problem with the design I can think of is if you believe people who get reinfected are an inherently unhealthier group than people who don’t.”
(DIR) Post #AT9q3jZJLN14lHeFUG by inthehands@hachyderm.io
2023-03-01T02:29:19Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer “The only problem with the design I can think of is if you believe people who get reinfected are an inherently unhealthier group than people who don’t.”I believe that is •exactly• her point! And it’s a very reasonable concern. Are people in poor health more likely to get infected? Seems possible.The concern isn’t with the data matching the original; it’s that the causal arrow here could go either way here.
(DIR) Post #AT9qNfE7CETH5TEm36 by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T02:32:58Z
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@inthehands @clubantietam @DroidEngineer When I looked further into this very good question, I found that they had controlled for the underlying health of the people in each group.
(DIR) Post #AT9qgDz0iBIE5w1Snw by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-01T02:36:18Z
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I have actual work to do, so I'm going to stop responding to all the question on this post, but please, please, please, read the paper yourself if you have questions. It's all there for every question I've answered so far.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3#Sec20
(DIR) Post #AT9sCGvPPQ5eRKBQEi by boilingsteam@mastodon.cloud
2023-03-01T02:53:22Z
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@grammargirl good luck finding out who is uninfected so far. At this stage pretty much everyone has been exposed especially since Omicron.
(DIR) Post #AT9uvh8N0jkcfJ25lA by DaveC@toad.social
2023-03-01T03:23:55Z
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@grammargirl #CovidIsNotOver
(DIR) Post #AT9xkaj8n6svTId3xY by clubantietam@sfba.social
2023-03-01T03:55:31Z
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@grammargirl @DroidEngineer yeah I think the data points are correct but context is missing. Anyway, I agree with your initial statement that COVID isn’t over! Just this particular graph seemed a little off.
(DIR) Post #ATA3utycfwB1nJAcOO by ProcessParsnip@kolektiva.social
2023-03-01T05:04:37Z
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@grammargirl did you create the plot from their data yourself? I'm picking my way through the paper and only seeing bar figures.
(DIR) Post #ATA8cskN0cGIXQjM0G by henrybrem@mastodonapp.uk
2023-03-01T05:57:23Z
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@grammargirl I was looking through the paper for that chart as it seems to sum up the position quite well, and I wanted to forward it. Where is the full size graph?
(DIR) Post #ATAFRdjbBSlKTIxLIe by ahm42@ruhr.social
2023-03-01T07:13:47Z
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@grammargirl Thanks for raising this issue. Can you please name the source? I understand this is from Nature, but which exact issue etc.? Would like to dive deeper into this.
(DIR) Post #ATAGwWmDCdkXp7TFQG by chrfr@fosstodon.org
2023-03-01T07:30:36Z
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@grammargirl Thank you for opening this thread and answering all those questions.This thread might just be the best example of why I love Mastodon and its culture of debate.I see people that are interested, respectful (and sometimes even kind) to each other and nonetheless asking questions, weighing arguments and offering critique. Thank you all so much!
(DIR) Post #ATAIpkiHBl7UvbWjL6 by braincell@hachyderm.io
2023-03-01T07:51:46Z
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@grammargirl @planteater24x7 If there are fewer people who got infected the third time in the study, and COVID is now endemic, that means that a lot of people got infected but weren't grouped as infected.
(DIR) Post #ATAKrTjtT54AlvEaZs by tsh2@mastodon.ie
2023-03-01T08:14:30Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer I don't understand the stats behind this, but I was wondering if 'pulmonary' levels off due to individual responses and survival rates. Assuming there is some sort of individual response to becoming infected.
(DIR) Post #ATAPsqQD7V0zBHUxbU by msgbi@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T09:10:46Z
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@grammargirl @charles_ex @aloa5 @Ginger149 how many days mask at home?
(DIR) Post #ATAViYUXWpcAOu04rQ by frankcat@mstdn.social
2023-03-01T10:16:04Z
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@grammargirl Thanks - really important article - it is disappointing that governments and medical authorities are no longer even pretending that we should take any measures to avoid getting COVID - we seem to have shifted from “herd immunity” to “survival of the fittest”. O Brave New World! 😎
(DIR) Post #ATAbBvcX79CcIoZ42i by jackscerebellum@infosec.exchange
2023-03-01T11:17:28Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam @DroidEngineer Possibly people's biggest concern is that Veterans are not representative of the general population? Why would you think that?*Reading the paper to see if that's in there
(DIR) Post #ATAew1qEcIRsmPeCES by Rixt@mstdn.social
2023-03-01T11:59:25Z
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@grammargirl And the worst for some are the #vaccinations: #postvac gets you just as tired, even if you never had any comlaints after the (mild) infection itself.
(DIR) Post #ATAgiAnAk2fgOTjg3s by markgrieveson@mindly.social
2023-03-01T12:19:20Z
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@grammargirl So far I've not caught covid. I do try to always wear a mask in indoor settings. But, given the increased social pressures to dine out, go to pubs, etc, it is difficult. Usually I try to wear a mask even within a pub or restaurant, and lift up or remove the mask simply to consume food/drink, putting it back in place after each gulp/drink, but this is an effort.
(DIR) Post #ATAxqBjynV42sBeNA8 by sphakos@toot.cat
2023-03-01T15:31:10Z
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@grammargirl "The risks were evident regardless of vaccination status."Masks save lives.
(DIR) Post #ATB1rA88faBrz7fcsC by ProgGrrl@bbq.snoot.com
2023-03-01T16:16:07Z
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@grammargirl really wish this chart had two versions: one for vaxxed folks, one for non vaxxed folks. There’s got to be a difference?
(DIR) Post #ATBIBAkBhE0qwk1yEK by DroidEngineer@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T19:19:07Z
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@grammargirl @clubantietam Sorry for the late response. The lab has been crazy. I'll catch myself up. Thanks for your thoughtful responses and taking the time to walk through this.
(DIR) Post #ATBevboLajojCpWYts by fadersolo@pinksection.xyz
2023-03-01T23:34:02Z
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@grammargirl This is scary AF and definitely feels like what I’m seeing (anecdotally) in my social circles. Can you share the source?
(DIR) Post #ATBtoLbKxYaiDXQzMO by azzageddi@zirk.us
2023-03-02T02:20:49Z
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@grammargirl Here in Japan, many foreign teachers are posting about how excited they are to be "going back to normal" when the govt eases masking guidelines in a few days. Every time they ease the guidelines, we get a huge wave of infections. It's really disheartening to see people who supposedly care about their students so excited to catch and spread a virus that will cause long-lasting disability to about 1/5 of the people who catch it.
(DIR) Post #ATCpTv0gQlBwW4zHE0 by catchingmybreath@zeroes.ca
2023-03-02T13:06:59Z
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@grammargirl and yet our country 🇨🇦 is no longer sending tests to the provinces as they expire. Feel there is no need anymore because it may not be reliable anymore. Gee I wonder why🤷♀️how many variants now? No one tells us anything anymore
(DIR) Post #ATDYpIFBjU6iTCf2TQ by Wesleyan@mstdn.social
2023-03-02T21:35:04Z
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@grammargirl Thanks for posting this, as a Pastor I keep warning my flock that it's not over !
(DIR) Post #ATDqoYj6lPNqTWSHyq by grammargirl@zirk.us
2023-03-03T00:56:38Z
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@Wesleyan Good for you. That is love and care.