Post AT9jeuhoCS8qL1P8To by alex@cybervillains.com
(DIR) More posts by alex@cybervillains.com
(DIR) Post #AT9f8I73kf9tYsP7ke by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:26:35Z
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Some meta-commentary on the lab leak controversy:Whatever you think about the truth of the matter, the fact that the US intelligence community can't figure this one out really bodes poorly for our visibility into the PRC.One way or another, there should be tens of thousands of communications between thousands of Chinese officials on the origin of the virus, and yet it feels like each agency is still guessing.Not a good sign for predicting an invasion of Taiwan or escalation in the SCS.
(DIR) Post #AT9fPCEkqq18GE44FE by lcamtuf@infosec.exchange
2023-03-01T00:29:38Z
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@alex Can we really reach the conclusion that they don't know, though? I'm assuming there's plenty of things they know where the benefit of informing the public is lower than the danger of exposing sources.I'd imagine there are much bigger fish to fry than settling a somewhat idle debate about whether COVID was a consequence of one type of carelessness or another.
(DIR) Post #AT9fRJt1Nj44Z2uZhA by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:30:08Z
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If you are looking for a non-political, evidence based view on why a lab leak is possible, I recommend following https://twitter.com/Ayjchan.
(DIR) Post #AT9flM0PDEwivbv0dc by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:33:43Z
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@lcamtuf The problem is that eight agencies have released unclassified assessments on this question, breaking down almost evenly in their results. I can't imagine them releasing conclusions that directly contradict high-confidence internal assessments based upon classified sources.Unless the DoE release and Bray's interview is part of a slow release to change the overall DNI assessment without the huge blowup a White House briefing would cause.
(DIR) Post #AT9fqq8IcxHZoYE796 by reedmideke@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T00:34:41Z
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@alex "Not a good sign for predicting an invasion of Taiwan or escalation in the SCS." Are you seriously suggesting that detecting what would be the largest amphibious operation since D-day would be comparable to figuring out if a lab accident happened?
(DIR) Post #AT9fsW529aSuCXUyUi by toxtethogrady@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T00:34:42Z
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@alex Lab leaks are POSSIBLE, but too many Fox viewers think it's the only plausible explanation; just as too many people being employed causes inflation, according to the Fed...
(DIR) Post #AT9g34kS76BwcNuHqq by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:36:49Z
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@reedmideke I think it doesn't bode well for our visibility into the thinking of the CPC on these matters. Obviously, moving men and material is the kind of thing we can spot in other ways.So no, I'm not suggesting that.
(DIR) Post #AT9g8eAxp1OJwVxpZY by franktaber@mas.to
2023-03-01T00:37:58Z
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@alex Alina has really not been evidence based. The epi community on twitter skewered much of her leading questions over the last year or two. Am I missing something here?
(DIR) Post #AT9h21e4GTV4euz33Y by BioTurboNick@mstdn.science
2023-03-01T00:47:56Z
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@alex This presumes that China actually knows something that points one way or the other.
(DIR) Post #AT9h4NcLXksFNrIjdw by BioTurboNick@mstdn.science
2023-03-01T00:48:26Z
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@alex 🤣 congratulations on torching your credibility
(DIR) Post #AT9hSYHxWIFHQiI7Tk by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:52:42Z
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It's pretty clear that this topic has been so politicized that even scientists descend immediately into ad hominem. Glad we have the block button.
(DIR) Post #AT9hmEmdkVgqjA1qgC by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T00:56:15Z
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@toxtethogrady Yes, the embrace of a low-confidence report from one agency as complete and total truth on this matter (awarding imaginary culture war points) makes it hard to have any kind of nuanced conversation.
(DIR) Post #AT9iH3cnHsIT617T96 by elkmovie@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T01:01:43Z
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@alex I agree on the larger point but I don’t think they’re going to be able to keep a Taiwan invasion secret - D-Day was before satellites and included an extremely extensive campaign of deception (double agents, fake armies) and yet the most we managed to do was sow doubt about whether we were landing in Normandy or Calais.
(DIR) Post #AT9iIzKsClGQNBeqsC by toxtethogrady@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T01:01:52Z
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@alex Fox tends to do that a lot, as evidenced by their embrace of election fraud theories they knew were crackpot. Scott Adams has gone one better than that by throwing away a career believing in a survey by a pollster with a less than stellar track record for analysis...
(DIR) Post #AT9if5JqdgTRIjiNTk by nosmaharba@mastodon.world
2023-03-01T01:06:03Z
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@alex I doubt any real investigating happened. American politicians need someone to blame for their rabid hate-mongering
(DIR) Post #AT9isr32UmSb5uQ0qO by moultano@sigmoid.social
2023-03-01T01:08:39Z
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@alex It could be that the Chinese government doesn't know, and doesn't want to know. Characteristic of authoritarian systems is that bad information doesn't flow up.
(DIR) Post #AT9jeuhoCS8qL1P8To by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T01:17:15Z
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@moultano I read some interesting theories on how the early response by Beijing was hampered by local officials playing down the severity of the virus, but considering how important this question is for the PRC's foreign policy, it seems crazy to not have an answer after three years.But yeah, maybe if they have an inkling a leak is possible it's better to just destroy all the evidence and move on instead of having a document waiting for Nakasone and Co.
(DIR) Post #AT9ji3UPzuIQRxdhBI by davep@infosec.exchange
2023-03-01T01:17:55Z
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@alex Zeynep Tufekci on Twitter has been great covering this in an even-handed manner.
(DIR) Post #AT9kjcSvXjmDAaFeVM by markwoll@universeodon.com
2023-03-01T01:29:23Z
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@alex Yep, get back to me when it hits "A High Degree Of Certainty" with available sources.
(DIR) Post #AT9mB8DDiYvRP3aTYW by moultano@sigmoid.social
2023-03-01T01:45:30Z
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@alex Yeah, it seems like there's no upside for them. Evidence for stricter lab precautions vs global embarrassment? No contest.
(DIR) Post #AT9mDDqLkhsJRlt2xM by mikeylikestech@infosec.exchange
2023-03-01T01:45:34Z
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@alex Counterpoint. China denies everything. Especially with their own people. Doesn’t much matter of it came out of a lab because clearly it fucked China. ———Taiwan invasion requires boats. Paratroopers have to get past air defense. They can’t airlift enough troops to maintain a foothold. We’d see them mass at the ports weeks before. Odds are they’d try to sink our carrier about the same time we notice them massing troops. We’d have a few dozen middle men reporting in because they are actually involved.
(DIR) Post #AT9tmVRZ0SNlqc45rM by tasket@infosec.exchange
2023-03-01T03:10:45Z
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@alex The IC can't tell bc they are illiterate on the subject of genetics (and the ecological conundrum that set the stage for the outbreak).
(DIR) Post #ATA6am5cacLdP5XQ4u by mark@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T05:34:01Z
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@alex Could it be a reflection of the disagreement on the origin even within the PRC? I do wonder if they have a dozen assessments internally contridicting each other.
(DIR) Post #ATADJr17iQiPRTJShE by UncivilServant@med-mastodon.com
2023-03-01T06:49:39Z
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@alex And this is different from analysts in the 80s assuring us that Gorbechev had things under control and the USSR was stable how?We *always* get things wrong about internal foreign deliberations. Often catastrophicaĺly so, just look at how Saddam's fear of exposing his weak military looked to some people like he was hiding WMDs, because that's what they wanted to see.It's why you should listen to scientists, not spooks. If China invades Taiwan, trust ELINT and sats, not tea leaves.
(DIR) Post #ATADeCq6I5kwujrTiy by peteriskrisjanis@toot.lv
2023-03-01T06:53:23Z
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@alex I don't think it is as complicated someone desperately want it to be. Simplest explanation is most likely true and that is virus jumping from bats to animals to us.Trying to make it "ohh we could have prevented it" is basically a protection mehanic for both people and institutions in the face of "our way of life will kill us because we can't stop".
(DIR) Post #ATAyPrpSJ1mBXjDyng by Migueldeicaza@mastodon.social
2023-03-01T15:37:22Z
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@alex yup that debate got nasty against Alina last year - and she was great at always giving weight to all available options and shedding light into the issues.
(DIR) Post #ATAzLrFIdFXEWvxsh6 by maxkennerly@mstdn.social
2023-03-01T15:47:48Z
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@alex A big frustration is the IC's lack of transparency. Concealing sources is one thing, but they won't even address why they discount peer-reviewed research, like the finding of two lineages at the market. Hard not to conclude the "lab leak" assessment is a bunch of conjecture atop a shoddy understanding of the science and data.
(DIR) Post #ATBQENroA3eQ9GdagS by protecttruth@mastodon.online
2023-03-01T20:16:50Z
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@maxkennerly @alex Yes. This assessment came from DOE. DOE isn’t really about energy— it is a nuke agency. I have zero confidence a nuke agency spy office is useful on biosecurity things.
(DIR) Post #ATBQEOZ3ZGFIJOs85w by FallsMom@mastodon.coffee
2023-03-01T20:47:02Z
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@protecttruth What standing does DOE have in this at all? I don't get it. :ablobeyes:
(DIR) Post #ATBQEOyE3gNXZSeEKG by alex@cybervillains.com
2023-03-01T20:49:02Z
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@FallsMom @protecttruth DoE oversees the national labs. LLNL has a bio-security mission.https://www.llnl.gov/missions/biosecurity
(DIR) Post #ATBqrbKEecp7zWILho by FallsMom@mastodon.coffee
2023-03-02T01:47:29Z
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@alex @protecttruth