Post ASpk5IP6pIj2Cm2V4S by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) More posts by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
(DIR) Post #ASpk5DODTC2YeYaDU8 by SuneS@c.im
2023-02-19T00:01:19Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas @osma Speaking of new weapons…Have you got any thoughts on the possibility of chinese weapons being shipped to the front in a not so distant future?
(DIR) Post #ASpk5DuTXFqQGbfylc by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-02-19T04:50:46Z
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@SuneS @Loukas @osma It’s unlikely. China is very concerned about being hit by secondary sanctions from the West, and that’s why they haven’t been helping Russia more. So Russia is stuck with North Korea and Iran as providers of weapons.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5ENXnB63ilHC4m by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T08:26:47Z
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@anderspuck @SuneS @Loukas @osma it would be interesting to see how the US political landscape might react to China providing lethal aid to russia.China is seen as threat by both parties. More direct aid towards russia might really lead to more sanctions against China and to more aid towards Ukraine. The argument to focus on China and help Ukraine only so far as would not hold any longer.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5Es1xpU1FJXXay by osma@mas.to
2023-02-19T08:31:59Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck @SuneS @Loukas I can do without that particular kind of interesting times.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5FG8WClWS4onAW by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T08:41:41Z
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@osma @t_mkdf @anderspuck @SuneS I think the USA political establishment has signalled credibly many times that there's political will for a confrontation with China, so China won't try to help Russia. What China's fm is doing at Munich is taking advantage of clear signs of American/German/French limits on enthusiasm for Ukraina by trying to talk about comprises to end the war and go back to business as usual.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5FhmrOspppksGe by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T08:43:09Z
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@osma @t_mkdf @anderspuck @SuneS a lot of powerful people in those countries absolutely don't want Ukraine to lose, but they would very much like the whole conflict to just go away, and China is raising the possibility that it could help that happen.My fear is that Ukraine would be pressured to agree to something.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5G47WMkQx6Ci4u by osma@mas.to
2023-02-19T08:49:39Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf @anderspuck @SuneS It would seem to me that most voices, lately even Macron and Scholtz, have been unequivocal enough that anything but a decisive win of Ukraine will simply lead to more instability and security issues in Europe, that it would not be possible to back out to pressuring Ukraine to agree to a bad ceasefire.I hope that's not wishful thinking.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5GbnV9gcdXxbZQ by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T08:57:25Z
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@osma @Loukas @anderspuck @SuneS In my view it could be acceptable to some to trade land for peace (basically the land russia has occupied). But neutrality of Ukraine or direct russian influence on Ukraine would be out of the question.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5H0xzZortbjhnk by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T09:01:49Z
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@t_mkdf @osma @anderspuck @SuneS yes I can imagine French/German/US support for a deal where the Russian occupied areas have some kind of autonomy from Ukraine and administered de facto by Russia, in return for security guarantees for Ukraine.Putin's current offensive and the coming Ukrainian counter-offensive can both be seen by some as attempts to shift the border before such negotiations.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5HWA7alzSMKcQS by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T09:09:19Z
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@Loukas @osma @anderspuck @SuneS I believe that this would not be acceptable even to US/FR/DE as it would be seen as another Minsk. I believe everyone is on the same page that russia shall not receive any influence on Ukrainian politics.And that Ukraine should aligne with the EU.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5I0eIF9wyuaxwe by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T09:17:16Z
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@t_mkdf @osma @anderspuck @SuneS why should another Minsk be unacceptable? The USA and France and Germany loved Minsk, and just days before the all-out invasion were still using it as a guide https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/09/europe/minsk-agreement-ukraine-russia-explainer-intl/index.htmlSo I doubt their geopolitical calculus has really changed, and they'll want to go back to 'Minsk, but it'll work this time'.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5IP6pIj2Cm2V4S by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-02-19T09:22:54Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf @osma @SuneS Of course an important joker in all this is Russia. I no longer see Putin in a position to end the war, so it's not a viable solution to go back to Minsk.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5IvMtMWtop8GLw by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T09:26:44Z
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@anderspuck @Loukas @osma @SuneS and that's why I believe that even a Chinese compromise might not be acceptable to russia.It is about regime security and not a land grab for russia.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5JNjBvDNEmOuYa by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T09:33:42Z
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@t_mkdf @anderspuck @osma @SuneS Putin can end a war he can sell as a win. If he can say he liberated Russian lands despite facing all of Nato, that's a win. He can keep his perpetual mobilisation state ticking over, but far more cheaply without a high level of actual fighting.
(DIR) Post #ASpk5JrrNtJkkEUyWW by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-02-19T09:47:30.495329Z
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@LoukasIn reality, Putin can sell anything as a win, and the reactions in Russia will be exactly the same mix of uncritical enthusiasm and skepticism as usual. Russian society is in such a state today that if Putin tomorrow nominates Stepan Bandera as main Russian hero, some people will march in Moscow with smiling faces and Bandera's portraits right away. Others will complain about a failure for anything short of taking Paris and Berlin on the other hand...@t_mkdf @anderspuck @osma @SuneS
(DIR) Post #ASpnrTEUAWABYHjWkq by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T09:56:06Z
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@kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @Loukas @osma I am wondering whether he already crossed a threshold of political mobilization for this to be true.But what I see in view of reigning in some milbloggers and Wagner it might be actually an attempt to regain control over the political space.Open windows might also play their part...
(DIR) Post #ASpnuH7ldyB2rpvcRM by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-02-19T09:40:14Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf @osma @SuneS There is no way to sell anything but complete control over the annexed territories as a victory. And since that is not going to happen, the only way I can see Putin keeping power is if the war never ends.
(DIR) Post #ASpnuHl7HfeWpsL2m0 by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T09:49:05Z
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@anderspuck @t_mkdf @osma @SuneS sell to whom? What is this constituency that Putin needs to sell a victory to?I agree that he needs a state of war to stay in power, but that doesn't mean he needs a constant high level war. In fact the longer the real war persists the more power accrues to the Prigorzhins and others outside his circle.I think he'll fail and get eaten by the tiger he's created. But I think there's a chance he'll think he can do it.
(DIR) Post #ASpnuIJVDp9sYWQVN2 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-02-19T09:56:47Z
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@Loukas @t_mkdf @osma @SuneS That was also my point in this video that a sort of frozen conflict is probably the best result for Putin by now. At this point I still think he believes the Russian Army will win in the end, though. https://youtu.be/MnnP38wtDIs
(DIR) Post #ASppEELFnZ0Rz2JdNg by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-02-19T10:45:26.153323Z
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@anderspuckBy all means, he does. Russian political class is used to slow, merciless conquest that may take decades, but ultimately ends in achieving their goals.When this war started last February, I was 100% confident #Ukraine will fight back because I was there and saw the attitudes. At the same time my immediate association was with the conquest of Caucasus in 1800's which took ~60 years and hundreds of battles they lost, but ultimately ended in Russian control by removal of 95% of the indigenous population, either by massacres or by expulsion to Turkey, Jordan etc.That's typically Russian way of conquest, which they repeated in Eastern Europe in their 1918-1920 Westward offensive — captured some states, lost at Warsaw in 1920, engaged in sabotage for two decades, and then jumped at the first opportunity in 1939. Of course, 1800's few millions of ethnically diverse Caucasian nations with very little support from outside is very different from 40 million united Ukraine with 50 countries coalition, so I see no way #Russia can win this war in the way we understand this word.What I'm just trying to show is that if Russia survives this war in its current shape, it will just try again and again. The only options for long term security for Ukraine is EU+NATO (desirably) or "Israeli model" of a highly militarised state continuously maintaining its military superiority over hostile neighbors.@Loukas @t_mkdf @osma @SuneS
(DIR) Post #ASpq1unmiluVrRLuSm by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-02-19T10:54:30.172570Z
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@anderspuckAdding to that, I can also see one realistic threat in the second ("Israeli") model — in 1920-1939 Poland was a highly divided country, with plenty of resources and attention being wasted for fractional fighting. Ukraine is very similar in this cultural aspect, so the "Israeli" model will inevitably involve some level of undemocratic management simply because any fractions will be immediate amplified by Russia for divide and conquer. Ukraine's position is much better because it has a friendly EU behind it rather than Nazi Germany on one side and Bolshevik Russia on the other as Poland had, but Russia will certainly increase its efforts to change the attitudes towards Ukraine in EU, especially in Poland, which is quite susceptible to such manipulations.@Loukas @SuneS @osma @t_mkdf
(DIR) Post #ASpqAGmGtsUEKkd11M by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T10:51:31Z
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@kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @osma @t_mkdf definitely and this is why Putin also thinks that Ukraine's weak point is *us*. He thnks he can wear down Ukraine eventually, but first he has to wear down political will west of Ukraine. He thinks he can do this because his idea of Europeans are people like Gerhard Schröder who are fossil fuel shills.
(DIR) Post #ASpqTAGDM3E3cidxlg by Loukas@mastodon.nu
2023-02-19T10:59:04Z
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@kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @osma @t_mkdf I get that, but Ukrainan state and civil society are far stronger. Poland in 1918 was resurrected after 120 years of partition and the religious and language divisions reflected that.I agree about Russian attempts to divide us, though. We should be on our guard for stories about 'Ukrainan refugees committing crimes in Hungary', for example.
(DIR) Post #ASprS1SkgA6a0CWkdM by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-02-19T11:10:19.205253Z
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@LoukasOn the latter, EU states did quite an unprecedented effort on throttling Russian information war, agents of influence and intelligence operations. I had an impression that all Russia did in EU from late 2000's — all the assassinations followed by blatant denials, all the fakes, especially during COVID-19 — pissed off a lot of people in the EU directly, but then pissed them off even more by their inability to react for the sake of "not impairing relations with Russia". February 2022 gave these people a direct cause to finally make scores even, and it was not disputable by even the largest Europa "friends of Russia".@SuneS @anderspuck @osma @t_mkdf
(DIR) Post #ASpwqaLt72k4vjqfHk by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T11:22:22Z
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@Loukas @kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @osma well, Ukraine has the benefit of having quite reliable neighbours to the west.That is a luxury that Poland didn't have in the 1920's and 1930's...
(DIR) Post #ASqNk4AUYWae8fdMoq by osma@mas.to
2023-02-19T16:27:07Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @Loukas Thank you all for continuing this thread while I was having a day of skiing in the Finnish Lapland! This was a good read over after-ski beer & pizza :)
(DIR) Post #ASqNk6yC8hXIpOu5ZI by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-02-19T16:48:37Z
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@osma @kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @Loukas not envious at all. Nope. Not at all...
(DIR) Post #ASsl0AcB2fFO1m9RdA by osma@mas.to
2023-02-20T19:48:00Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz @SuneS @anderspuck @Loukas This one from @anneapplebaum is very relevant to our thread. And big up to Biden for his visit to Kyiv today.https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/biden-trip-ukraine-kyiv/673134/