Post ASkbz7aIMzALUI16Ho by sj@social.scriptjunkie.us
 (DIR) More posts by sj@social.scriptjunkie.us
 (DIR) Post #ASkUgN6Hl4SSQc5mPw by sj@social.scriptjunkie.us
       2023-02-16T21:02:06Z
       
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       In Jan, 2023, there were 400,000 vehicles in the US and Canada with FSD Beta, an amount that has been growing over the past few years.https://insideevs.com/news/633328/tesla-fsd-beta-now-active-to-400000-cars-us-canada/If FSD beta made cars more dangerous, we would expect at least 52 deaths per year, one a week, with FSD beta.
       
 (DIR) Post #ASkaq6w1JdMGudJmMK by viraptor@cyberplace.social
       2023-02-16T22:11:00Z
       
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       @sj that's a mix of stats though, right? You're looking at fatalities, but the recent recall was explicitly about possible crashes.I'm not disputing your data, but I'm not sure how would we aggregate crashes+fatalities into a "more/less dangerous" metric.
       
 (DIR) Post #ASkbz7aIMzALUI16Ho by sj@social.scriptjunkie.us
       2023-02-16T22:23:48Z
       
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       @viraptor I focused on fatalities for a couple reasons:1. Almost everything in the super bowl commercial was implying likely fatalities. Fatalities are also far more likely to be run down to ground truth, and the subject of far more intense press frenzies, because people rightly care more.2. You can get crash stats straight off the Tesla site: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport Autopilot and FSD are reported together, at 6-7x fewer collisions per mile (per their stats) so still solidly less dangerous
       
 (DIR) Post #ASkhAKEw9mE3h6BkOG by viraptor@cyberplace.social
       2023-02-16T23:21:53Z
       
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       @sj Good info. But the data they present is stacked a bit.1. They don't allow drivers with low score to try FSD which means this compares "good drivers with FSD" to "everyone else".2. The national average makes the selection bias even worse (how many teenagers can use a Tesla with FSD -vs- a cheapo "first car" with hopefully working airbags?)3. Autopilot and others are still primarily used on highways which have lower accident rates than cities.