Post ASNASKskbuP1eAp1HM by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
(DIR) More posts by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
(DIR) Post #ASNASFSglNaIptadSi by breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social
2022-12-26T20:05:57Z
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Sometimes in news reports about the increasing pace of climate change, you might see someone refer to a "temporary overshoot." That means they're essentially admitting we now have zero chance of avoiding 1.5C above baseline and little chance of staying under 2C. But they use the word 'temporary' because they want you to believe that even if world temperatures do go that high, it will be for only a short time. See, the plan is that by 2050 or so we will have invented some fancy new technology that will quickly and easily remove a HUGE amount of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, AND somehow accomplish that without using an equivalent amount of fossil fuels. It's a green solution! Yay!Of course, no such technology exists, nor is one likely ever to be invented. We might just as well hope to develop perpetual motion machines. However, by selling you on the idea that a temporary overshoot will be okay, that there's nothing to worry about, that our leaders have everything under control, they can just carry on with business as usual.The whole thing is truly just a scam, a snake-oil remedy concocted by the fossil fuel industry to buy more time so they can continue making money while trashing the planet. #Greenwashing #GreenhouseGases #ClimateCrisis
(DIR) Post #ASNASG8WFr2qvdA2fA by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T13:04:59Z
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@breadandcircuses There is a grain of truth in it in that natural processes *should* cause temperatures to fall very slowly as long as emissions have *stopped*, not just peaked.Somebody posted a graph about that, but I can't find it right now.Of course this assumes that the major sinks aren't compromised. It's one end of a range of climate models, with the other end being even more apocalyptic. Supposedly it does take into account short term feedbacks.Even with this happy ending, it will take centuries to see any major improvement.Much better to stop emissions immediately.The other sense in which this is definitely true is El Nino. There's a good chance of an El Nino soon, and that *will* cause very high temperatures and related chaos in the years with an El Nino, less so in the La Nina years.But bear in mind that *last year was a La Nina*! And we still had plenty of climate chaos, including new temperature records, floods in Pakistan, etc.
(DIR) Post #ASNASGwVG11lQeXxZY by breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T13:25:15Z
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@MatthewToad42 My understanding is that while the 'temporary overshoot' models may make an attempt to account for short-term feedbacks, they do not include many of the potential cascading effects, mostly because so little is still known about them.
(DIR) Post #ASNASHPDXFzorhytKS by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T13:28:11Z
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@breadandcircuses Yeah. For instance, most of the long term drawdown is from *land based* sinks. Many of which may be taken out by feedbacks, e.g. even if we stop deforestation it may yet be too late for the Amazon. Equally there are worrying signs on the ocean.I believe such models are the relatively conservative IPCC consensus. And they're still scary.Whereas at the other end you have the Hansen preprint. Which is horrifying.
(DIR) Post #ASNASHsHnBFSJra6dc by rob_cornelius@mastodon.green
2023-02-03T13:55:28Z
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@MatthewToad42 @breadandcircuses Whats the hansen preprint? Do you have a link?
(DIR) Post #ASNASIKe5jvvjoqkqG by breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T13:57:16Z
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@rob_cornelius @MatthewToad42 There's a link here, along with my commentary... https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses/109512244348894213
(DIR) Post #ASNASIniLfBZByRy9Q by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T14:02:56Z
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@breadandcircuses @rob_cornelius Well even the IPCC consensus ignores "long term" feedbacks. So you're probably looking at 3-4C long term in the good case. But we don't care about long term because we hope it's thousands of years in the future.Whereas the Hansen preprint says 3C this century and it'll keep going up to 5C, and eventually 10C. At which point, whether we live on Earth or Mars is a bit of a moot point, we probably won't be living on either. And in practice worse since that's assuming immediate cessation of emissions. We probably need geoengineering even if the consensus view is right, but we definitely need it if Hansen is right. Which is problematic, as we've discussed elsewhere. š Equally, the outcome could be slightly better than the mainstream models. But probably not much better given how far we've already got.
(DIR) Post #ASNASJHqXdHwhQY27M by rob_cornelius@mastodon.green
2023-02-03T14:05:21Z
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@MatthewToad42 @breadandcircuses It was a good run while it lasted but the party is well and truly over.Armageddon, Ragnarok call it what you want.
(DIR) Post #ASNASJpWWQE8NsIvbs by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T14:07:56Z
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@rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses I have a lot of superficial sympathy for doomers. Unfortunately when it turns into "therefore we shouldn't mine any more minerals to build renewables" I have to fundamentally disagree with them and block them. Sometimes it does.A fool's hope is better than no hope. Keep fighting for every 0.1C.
(DIR) Post #ASNASKHsoyubnpZZoW by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-03T19:12:55Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses We shouldnāt mine *any* minerals for private electric cars. We should #BanCars in cities. That would also avoid a lot of mining for electricity generation, as a huge increase in it would not be needed.Not going to happen, unfortunately. The junkies that most of humanity is will only exchange a shot of gasoline in the vein for a snort of lithium. We are doomed.
(DIR) Post #ASNASKskbuP1eAp1HM by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T23:26:49Z
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@nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses Tell that to disabled Twitter users with mobility problems.We can and should make cities more accessible to wheelchairs etc. But in the transition period we will need EVs, and I don't want to commit to *no* cars.Equally, many workers e.g. plumbers have to carry equipment, and therefore need either a car or a van.Plausibly we could get to a point where personal cars are severely restricted. But it requires solving a bunch of other problems simultaneously. And there's plenty we can do to move towards that goal, e.g. more funding for buses, restrictions on parking, more bike lanes.Apart from that, I would point to this thread:https://climatejustice.social/@MatthewToad42/109763542903316727One lithium mine produces 30% of global demand. The mine is smaller than a typical coal mine which produces enough coal for one power plant. I had a picture but can't immediately find it. We dig up 15GT of fossil fuels every year; IEA estimates the minerals needed for the transition at 43MT/year at the peak (see links above).Lithium is not the problem. Nor is cobalt (modern lithium batteries don't use it). But I agree we need fewer cars. Both to speed up the transition and to make cities more livable.
(DIR) Post #ASNASLNalF4ZBpFeLo by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-03T23:30:23Z
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@nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses As far as energy this is also wrong. I believe the total electricity used in a year increases by around 30%. We'll need some more for heat pumps though.But renewables are cheap and relatively clean, and there are many other ways to reduce usage.Storage is solvable. One study suggests that vehicles batteries can provide the entire short term storage requirement for the grid, without harming the batteries, though I'm a bit skeptical on that one. Certainly we can reuse "spent" EV batteries in grid storage. That doesn't fully solve the problem - we still need long term storage - but it's a start.However, reaching sustainability happens faster if we have fewer cars on the roads, which has many other benefits. One of the fastest interventions for this is improving bus services.TLDR: severely restrict cars, but in the short to medium term we will need some. And lithium *probably* isn't a big problem.
(DIR) Post #ASNASLqJ2U2ccsga6i by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T08:07:01Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses You forget the massive microplastic emissions of all cars, especially electric ones. People cannot continue using cars. Itās time to stop producing them now, not in 100 years. Car production now has high emissions, even if in the distant future the production somehow were ācleanā. Itās better to keep using (less) already produced petrol cars while phasing them out in citiesāfast. 1/2
(DIR) Post #ASNASMRsmm6CVQGag4 by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T08:13:11Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses If there were will, there would be a way to stop using private cars today. A start would be halving the space allotted, and giving walkers and bikers right of way everywhere with heavy penalties and actual enforcement. Those who āhave toā use a car will have to start sharing, turning cars into buses. Densification will follow.Chinese cities will be livable quicker than the West. 2/2
(DIR) Post #ASNASMxQtTKu5H1mr2 by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T08:27:25Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses Also, plumbers etc. can use a cargo bike or even an (electric-assisted) cart that can go on public transport. At least if the city were an actual city with reasonable distances, instead of a horrid car-dependent sprawl. Thatās why densification should have started long time ago. Now, just as we have no carbon budget for producing more cars, we have none for actual (concrete) construction.
(DIR) Post #ASNASNQr84s7YWnHiS by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T08:30:39Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses So, since the humanity didnāt fix its idiocies in time, it will have to suffer a bit and get used to walking and cycling long distances in bleak sprawling suburbs that cannot ecologically support quality public transport. Or else we are truly doomed.
(DIR) Post #ASNASNw3G5pF7HOCLA by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T08:37:45Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses Just improving bus services is not going to make people switch to public transport. The only thing that will make complacent rich brats (that includes most people in the Global North) switch from their cars to buses is making it comparably painful to drive: making it very expensive, reducing space, and giving priority in intersections to active travel. Cars always yield.
(DIR) Post #ASNASOMdfF5oRjpQmW by rob_cornelius@mastodon.green
2023-02-04T11:08:20Z
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@nerdbear @MatthewToad42 @breadandcircuses there are plenty of examples of motorists ripping out barriers preventing car access to residential streets. Is this the hill we die on?
(DIR) Post #ASNASOlo9fE3hnbX0q by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-04T17:11:18Z
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@rob_cornelius @nerdbear @breadandcircuses Rich brats are not the majority of the car problem, in spite of shouting the loudest and having political connections.There are lots of people who drive because it's actually cheaper than public transport. *Those* drivers, who can't afford to switch to EVs because they drive cheap second hand cars and don't have dedicated parking, are potentially reachable via improvements in bus services, which could be deployed very quickly at modest cost.Also, while densification is probably necessary, especially in the US's sprawling car-centric cities, it requires considerable resources and time, because you have to build a lot of new buildings, roads etc.On the other hand, converting a 6 lane road to a 2 lane road, bus lanes and segregated cycle tracks, is relatively cheap ecologically since you don't need to knock down any buildings?That requires political courage. But several major European cities have done it successfully.
(DIR) Post #ASNASPLxzE9JVwWPNA by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-04T17:16:17Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses Yes 6->2 lanes with BRT or tram and cycle paths is exactly what Iām talking about: making driving uncomfortable while providing better options.I guess you live in a very different culture, if you think people there can be persuaded to use buses just by make them available. In Finland, no chance, car culture is very entrenched.
(DIR) Post #ASNASPuhu3wFFgm9WS by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-04T17:30:36Z
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@nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses You need sticks as well as carrots. There will be resistance to that. But it's best to start with the carrots.
(DIR) Post #ASNASQZTSUY3I7qi48 by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T09:08:57Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses In many places there is no space for quality public transport or cycle paths, so you need to do the stick to do the carrot.Where there is space, there probably is already a bus in the general area, but the low car-oriented density cannot ecologically and economically support quality. The only way is the stick: to reduce space for cars so people have to walk/cycle/P&R to trunk lines.
(DIR) Post #ASNASR5jWYLuuAwTLc by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-05T11:25:57Z
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@nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses I agree that the strategy depends on where you are.The above strategy is mainly for areas with loads of huge roads. Most American cities, for instance.Some bigger European cities have already been through this transformation. Amsterdam has. Paris has in part. Other people have posted links about this.For smaller cities and towns, for instance where I live, where we have tend to have a more healthy ratio of buildings to roads, there's less low hanging fruit. But there are also almost no bicycles, because of the chicken-and-egg problem: nobody cycles, therefore traffic isn't used to bicycles, therefore it's not safe to cycle, therefore nobody cycles.One thing we can do is converting on-street parking into cycle lanes. But that is consistently opposed by shopkeepers who assume, incorrectly, that everyone arrives by car.Another thing we can do is improving buses, which are generally speaking expensive and infrequent. Even if there isn't space for a bus lane through most of the town, it's still often worth putting money into buses.One size fits all policy is problematic. For instance most disabled Americans who need a vehicle do not have any sort of ID to prove it, which means we need to solve that when imposing parking restrictions. Whereas most Brits in that situation do.I used to be in the "sticks first, ban cars" category. Until I had several arguments with other disabled people on the other place. We have to act, but we have to act in an inclusive way.
(DIR) Post #ASNASSS6SrqB7qPqr2 by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T12:42:43Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses About expensive and infrequent buses: I currently live right next to the main rail corridor of Finland, with very frequent and comfortable local trains to central Helsinki, sort of (the trains leave you 250m from the train station doors; there's parking closer to the doors). But to go to the office, I'd have to take an infrequent (~20min, none on weekends) bus in transversal traffic for ~4km. To go to municipal daycare, 3km in opposite directionā¦
(DIR) Post #ASNASTCtetGrSyJDn6 by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T12:47:02Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses ā¦ needless to say, that would be huge waste of time. So we have to pay for closer private daycare: not an option for most. And I walk ~35min to the office, as it's faster than the bus, including the arbitrary waiting time. Most are also not going to do that: they'd drive. Cycling is unfomrtable due to low quality intermittent paths. They're also going to remove all zebra crossings over 4-lane road on the path on the pretext of pedestrian safetyā¦
(DIR) Post #ASNASTetylfkrpPaRU by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T12:49:59Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses ā¦ Turning some into beg buttons off the straight path (slalom), and removing some altogether. So it's all about making cars faster. There would be space for islands, to only have to cross one lane, if they would shave off 30cm/lane (there is already a central island/cycle path between the two directions). But no, removing space from cars is never an option in #Finland.
(DIR) Post #ASNASUCvwEtWZNKlUG by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T12:53:22Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses #Finland is a weird USA-Europe hybrid. It is extremely sparsely built, and aside from central #Helsinki, there are very low quality āmulti-useā cycle and footpaths nearly everywhere. (In central Helsinki the car is the sole priority.) The purpose-built very long distances don't make Finnish pseudo-cities particularly walkable or cycleable, and, needless to say, fast movement of cars has priority in all traffic planning.
(DIR) Post #ASNASUsPS24Ue0jt8S by nerdbear@masto.ai
2023-02-05T12:56:49Z
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@MatthewToad42 @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses About disabled people: with the proper infrastructure and density, they don't need cars. In the Netherlands you see the disabled and old people using tiny speed-limited electric vehicles on cycle paths.
(DIR) Post #ASNASVYEwVX2jkJIKu by MatthewToad42@climatejustice.social
2023-02-05T12:58:26Z
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@nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses Yes we have mobility vehicles here too.They're a good solution for the majority of mid-ability old people.They *don't* entirely solve the problem for all disabled mobility challenged individuals. Some people need to carry a wheelchair. Some people need to carry a lot more than that.Also, here, they use the footpaths, at unsafe speeds. It would be much safer if they could use segregated cycle paths!
(DIR) Post #ASNASW491t3KKhEm48 by jbond@mastodon.social
2023-02-05T14:51:50Z
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@MatthewToad42 @nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses I'm a big fan of infrastructure for "Utility" cycling as opposed to leisure cycling. If you design to accommodate cargo bikes, it will work well with disabled e-scooters and e-wheelchairs. Too much of what we call a cycle path in the UK is actually a muddy bridlepath.
(DIR) Post #ASNASXk0ni8XWppixk by jbond@mastodon.social
2023-02-05T14:55:50Z
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@MatthewToad42 @nerdbear @rob_cornelius @breadandcircuses On renewables and climate change. There is one view born of Limits To Growth that "if the resource constraints don't get you, the pollution constraints will". And tech-fixes tend to just keep business as usual going for longer, leading to a higher peak but a harder crash when we inevitably run into the resource and pollution constraints. Renewables don't displace fossil fuel. They power the continued growth.