Post ASKCoY49tFoLLDzuRE by tippenring@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by tippenring@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #ASKBkOvro7R5tvZseW by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:27:07Z
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You're going to be amazed at how quickly the Chinese balloon story drops out of the news (except by MAGA-land) as more information about it surfaces. Most of the ranting I've heard about it all day appears to be massively overblown on all counts, including claimed maneuverability, theoretical spying capabilities over those of a satellite, etc. There even seems to be a lack of absolute confirmation about the second balloon claimed to be over Latin or South America. What's really going on isn't entirely clear, but for sure the GOP is many orders of magnitude more of a threat to this country compared to this balloon.
(DIR) Post #ASKCoY49tFoLLDzuRE by tippenring@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T04:39:01Z
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@lauren I've been thinking this balloon is probably a college kids weather balloon experiment.
(DIR) Post #ASKCtMXu9Kfh3mCsAy by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:39:55Z
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@tippenring With a payload the size of three school buses?
(DIR) Post #ASKD3rchSYJuLASOX2 by hulavikih@universeodon.com
2023-02-04T04:41:37Z
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@lauren but it is filled with covid!#gop #HouseGOP
(DIR) Post #ASKDHI1Gd8KbyILlKq by mkarliner@mastodon.modern-industry.com
2023-02-04T04:44:13Z
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@lauren @tippenring The #balloon is the size of three buses, not the payload.🙂Amateur radio guys are sending smaller ones round the world all the time.
(DIR) Post #ASKDJDtcvnWPlLhM5Q by Maxanadu_MX02@masthead.social
2023-02-04T04:44:39Z
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@lauren I admit I was concerned about the balloon in the beginning, but watching the Republican party and their orange lunatic leader lose their shit over it has prompted me to reassess.
(DIR) Post #ASKDUPAxKo9Tvm8ToG by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:46:07Z
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@mkarliner @tippenring The stories I've seen say the payload is the size of three buses and the balloon is MUCH larger. - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-spotted-225200393.html
(DIR) Post #ASKDXPWgUK3Bt1jSV6 by jobotics@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T04:46:54Z
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@lauren I watch a YouTuber by the name of Bough of the 5th column who did a video regarding this. He pretty much said that if it is indeed a spy balloon there is only 1 group of people who should be worried about it being Chinese counterintelligence. The response of US was basically "meh". Which means US intelligence already knows exactly what's there.
(DIR) Post #ASKDsCdJcSFvyrkSIK by tippenring@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T04:49:36Z
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@mkarliner @lauren the balloon the "volume" of three buses makes much more sense than "payload."Weather balloons expand tremendously as their altitude increases.However, a payload volume of "three buses" must have very little mass. A balloon just can't carry very much weight.
(DIR) Post #ASKDsD3Y2vEvIE1PBQ by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:50:26Z
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@tippenring @mkarliner Read the story please: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-spotted-225200393.html
(DIR) Post #ASKDv8FsLxeDGsBJ1k by bees@infosec.exchange
2023-02-04T04:50:47Z
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@lauren There's theories it is a CAS weather balloon. If it is, it's pretty much just as capable as a satellite. Which means, sure, it could be dual tasked with both meterological and intelligence gathering capabilities. But that doesn't make it unique or anything new compared to the 200+ satellites originated from the PRC that are currently in orbit.
(DIR) Post #ASKDwpoZsunMeuE0C8 by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:51:48Z
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@tippenring @mkarliner Also, think about this. Why would anyone use a comparison like "three school buses" for a round balloon? It makes much more sense that they're talking about what's below the balloon, and that's what the stories I've seen all say is being described -- the payload.
(DIR) Post #ASKE5aOSadXpR9BJNA by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T04:53:20Z
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@lauren Best commentator I've heard about it is that it's a big screw up for PRC. Furthermore, the US is going to score the equipment any day now and have their own instant Espionage boost. It's like handing over the passwords to their tech network.
(DIR) Post #ASKEBmSIemmYaFvnfc by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T04:54:28Z
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@VividConfusion I doubt very much that there will be much there of particular value over what's already known by the relevant agencies.
(DIR) Post #ASKEZv5iCXCmJhsOnY by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T04:58:43Z
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@lauren Well, apparently, from the MSNBC commentator (US Senator someone), the US is behind on high altitude balloon spy surveillance. And it would give us a better idea of where they are on it. So info either way. And that it will likely be quietly retrieved in some nondestructive way. That the US State Dept trip to China probably won't happen until the balloon equipment is examined.
(DIR) Post #ASKEsIdnNmF6ZFaCYa by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T05:02:10Z
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@VividConfusion ProTip: Don't believe anything you hear from a politician about this stuff. The ones who say the most don't know what they're talking about, and the ones who do know the score aren't going to reveal it publicly. ProTip#2: Always publicly claim your surveillance capabilities are less than your adversaries, especially when they aren't.
(DIR) Post #ASKFHDOzzrQ1YlXhUe by tippenring@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T05:06:37Z
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@lauren @mkarliner many size comparisons are irrational. Lol. I read the Yahoo article you linked. It has some vagueness, but it implies that we know the payload is transmitting RF. I suppose that's probably pretty easy to determine, but I'd like a little more validation than "we heard it transmits RF." I'm cynical that the Chinese want to spy on us with a balloon, or that it's any more of a risk, when they have so many other options that we ignore like satellites and American citizens.
(DIR) Post #ASKGUv0VHmuwW6BQ0G by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T05:20:16Z
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@lauren My first 10 yrs working was at Hanford Nuclear site during the end of the Cold War. I dealt with plutonium and uranium & had a Q Clearance. I know very well the Info Sec games we play. I still agree with the commentator. Grab the thing and learn whatever we can from it. And we can always learn *something* even if it isn't obvious.
(DIR) Post #ASKGswvNoC9ZPhFMsy by tubetime@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T05:24:22Z
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@lauren regardless this won't result in any sort of increase in US federal dollars to balloon research
(DIR) Post #ASKH0E4ATU9mbXpFh2 by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T05:25:59Z
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@VividConfusion Oh indeed, always good to grab the stuff and if nothing else you get confirmation data points and sometimes learn something new. I just don't think it's going to be a big deal -- it's not a warp drive, after all. Hanford huh? I'm always impressed by anyone willing to deal with that kind of environment, because I most certainly never could or would.
(DIR) Post #ASKHQIqFLGoWwckSzQ by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T05:30:42Z
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@lauren People might be surprised by what can be determined. For example, we might find out that they are using certain materials, indicating a shortage of materials used in higher tech. Or, maybe the analyses show that the materials originated in a country that we didn't know was supplying them with raw materials. Any info could be useful.
(DIR) Post #ASKHdy5nHfWUe7XLJg by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T05:33:11Z
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@VividConfusion Yeah. On the other hand, there's also the possibility they assumed we'd get hold of it and analyze what we could, and have taken that into account in the first place. Spy vs. Spy.
(DIR) Post #ASKHuXuJtPAGME4h9c by Doug_Bostrom@scicomm.xyz
2023-02-04T05:36:08Z
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@lauren The GOP is a balloon. The floaty thing is an aerostat.
(DIR) Post #ASKIB3ukevx8G69Uzg by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T05:39:09Z
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@lauren Nope. That's not compatible with the world view of the Chinese government. They have a very... umm.... self- confident and superior view of China over others. They would never willingly let anything even have the appearance of an error. It's also why the news of SARS and COVID-19 were all slow and limited. It would make their gov look bad so they would never do it intentionally.
(DIR) Post #ASKICwc0mPTwBrHgWm by mjausson@mastodon.design
2023-02-04T05:39:32Z
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@lauren I'm 💯 that the Chinese are spying on us. But the balloon is a red herring. If the Chinese goal was misdirection and making US lawmakers under-estimate them, they've won. 🤦🏼‍♀️ They're playing the MAGA world like a fiddle.
(DIR) Post #ASKK7d93vhukH7Kyae by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T06:00:56Z
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@VividConfusion They're already claiming explicitly that the balloon "getting loose" is an error. So that ship has already sailed.
(DIR) Post #ASKKE6xxy7tqV7En6e by VividConfusion@mastodon.world
2023-02-04T06:02:05Z
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@lauren Like i said, they would not do it intentionally. They were forced to acknowledge it by the cancelation of the SoS trip.
(DIR) Post #ASKXA068rSPXRgQpnc by mkarliner@mastodon.modern-industry.com
2023-02-04T08:26:56Z
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@lauren @tippenring Possibly because the school bus is an SI unit of journalism. In the UK, it's been a London Bus since Brexit. 🙂
(DIR) Post #ASKXHLK2LgsXIXQr7w by mkarliner@mastodon.modern-industry.com
2023-02-04T08:28:20Z
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@lauren Just looked at the amateur radio feed from QRP labs. Much chuckling over there.
(DIR) Post #ASKdU0FMcKnbQJfNPk by davebyrne@mastodonapp.uk
2023-02-04T09:37:50Z
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@lauren So surely this is just some science experiment or weather ballon gone rogue. All this media speculation just doesn’t make sense. Bearing in mind the images you can buy from commercial services how much of an improvement could a ballon offer? Do they need to read someone’s hand written notes left out in the open? No makes no sense for it to be military. Maybe it’s one of those Japanese ballon bombs left over from WW2.
(DIR) Post #ASKlWhm2YTSwdHkYTo by stiofi@troet.cafe
2023-02-04T11:07:56Z
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@lauren old/new (not my) #coldwar2, innit.
(DIR) Post #ASKzI8Xi94yyfYzkoK by monsoonrains@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T13:42:12Z
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@lauren This is the fourth time I've caught wind of this story. And I have a question: Do the people still freaking out about it have lives?
(DIR) Post #ASLDtKqImCZ0tDK3TU by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T16:25:43Z
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@mkarliner @davebyrne @tippenring But these described as *school* buses. Different.
(DIR) Post #ASLEMFVjg8TwkeURqi by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T16:31:02Z
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@davebyrne The payload (not the baloon) is the size of three school buses. So, no.
(DIR) Post #ASLH2cgi65FkhjxMXI by hynesyte@mastodon.cloud
2023-02-04T17:00:59Z
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@lauren A sense of humorCan ease minds.https://mstdn.party/@Photoist/109807274357380021
(DIR) Post #ASLNEKlv8L1SL5MRXM by PJ_Evans@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T16:02:12Z
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@monsoonrains @lauren The only lives they have are freaking out over things and being afraid of anything that's different from what they think the world was like when they were children.
(DIR) Post #ASLNELUaSGkeZcG79s by monsoonrains@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T18:09:50Z
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@PJ_Evans @lauren Do they miss the Cold War.
(DIR) Post #ASLNEM4OJ9OKMf0hxw by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T18:10:27Z
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@monsoonrains @PJ_Evans There are both Cold Wars and Hot Wars now.
(DIR) Post #ASLPudTKCHlOPIxgZs by monsoonrains@mastodon.social
2023-02-04T18:40:29Z
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@lauren @PJ_Evans Aren't there always...
(DIR) Post #ASLTvD6A8emCiWeoCG by pthenq1@mastodon.la
2023-02-04T19:25:49Z
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@lauren Yes. Indeed. Yes!