Post ASJmUKRAFs8ITKSLUe by NaN@body.social
(DIR) More posts by NaN@body.social
(DIR) Post #ASJYrJ4K6t2xWvpphI by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T21:11:20Z
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I love all the ranting about the Chinese Spy Balloon, when we know that both the U.S. and China have fleets of spy satellites that can probably provide a close-up of an ant's face on the ground from anywhere over the other's country. Talk about political theater. Jeez.
(DIR) Post #ASJZ2cq4weli22ZMxM by cottonmanifesto@home.social
2023-02-03T21:13:09Z
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@lauren I figure everyone is spying on everyone else all the time
(DIR) Post #ASJZ7BJwgWDc8KiCf2 by davidaugust@mastodon.online
2023-02-03T21:14:09Z
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@lauren I wonder if there are tactical reasons a balloon is different than a satellite, and the reasons many countries maintain and operate extensive fleets of spy drones, plans and other low-altitude spy and surveillance systems might make spy balloons more than mere theatre.
(DIR) Post #ASJZDhygBCqr9esRF2 by SonofaGeorge@mstdn.ca
2023-02-03T21:15:24Z
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@lauren Agreed- the balloon has been blown out of proportion.
(DIR) Post #ASJZQ3OgMvCX3pvVTs by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T21:17:37Z
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@davidaugust Obviously they're close to the ground which provides better views and the opportunity to capture more short-range radio traffic and such. But in the scheme of things this is basically all about "invading airspace" -- which of course both countries routinely do to each other in various ways.
(DIR) Post #ASJZeLAp4aYoFQFwsy by davidaugust@mastodon.online
2023-02-03T21:19:46Z
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@lauren that makes good sense. I wonder if inviting country’s airspace and the posturing in the media about it is a more gentle line in the sand than kinetic engagement between nuclear armed counties, and maybe it is more than theatre in that way.
(DIR) Post #ASJZgcAgqXEZXqHKkq by ghfiii@mastodon.xyz
2023-02-03T21:20:30Z
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@lauren thank you
(DIR) Post #ASJZuqdZrKPUSqZrEW by jeber@mastodon.social
2023-02-03T21:23:11Z
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@lauren We've even used balloons for arial recon for years. Big whoop.
(DIR) Post #ASJZxfxU1HJaDGEj3Y by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T21:23:43Z
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Coincidentally, just now on CNN a Republican Congressman all bent out of shape about this was asked what kind of spying the U.S. did on China, and satellites were specifically mentioned. And of course he refused to answer and just fell back on the balloon being a violation of law and sovereignty. He really didn't like being asked about U.S. spying on China. Naturally.
(DIR) Post #ASJa3RWEcOEhAQF1Hs by beige_alert@universeodon.com
2023-02-03T21:24:25Z
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@lauren Balloons, famously, go where the wind takes them, and while the wind is to a degree predictable and I find it easy to believe a balloon launch could be set up to deliver a balloon to "somewhere over North America" you're not gonna be able to target anything in particular, and we're talking about the year 2023 and a country with a half-century of spy satellite experience.
(DIR) Post #ASJa6MHcXb5pnVnP8a by steely_glint@chaos.social
2023-02-03T21:24:42Z
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@lauren The Nuclear spooks have a _long_ history of atmospheric sampling to determine what the other side is building or testing. The balloon might be the modern version of that.
(DIR) Post #ASJaOG2mTelVevOE76 by ipd@universeodon.com
2023-02-03T21:28:30Z
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@lauren #whoLetTheDadsOut If I didn't pick this up, someone else would.. enjoyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8qjxT1iIAM&t=21s
(DIR) Post #ASJaUlCdXf6Y2C6HvU by aka_quant_noir@cinematheque.social
2023-02-03T21:29:39Z
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@lauren What are they distracting us from today now?
(DIR) Post #ASJajzvH5zie20FGYy by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T21:32:27Z
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@ipd Best of the Hekawi.
(DIR) Post #ASJbccyE8LZolyfwtk by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T21:42:19Z
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As for why the U.S. hasn't shot it down so far ... well, one obvious possibility is that the U.S. would like to get it intact if possible, which is harder to do when you shoot at it. Also, when you shoot at balloons you can't always predict where their payload will hit the ground, and even rather desolate areas have risks in that regard.
(DIR) Post #ASJc6gsKBEPZZSFYUC by mrcompletely@heads.social
2023-02-03T21:47:39Z
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@lauren I've heard excuses that they don't have a weapons platform ideal for this - it's too high for guns and missile guidance treats objects like this as chaff - but the idea that there's a whole altitude band inaccessible to US military ordnance strains credulity
(DIR) Post #ASJcCldTOTXS4ZCWB6 by samhainnight@mstdn.social
2023-02-03T21:48:48Z
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@lauren And if you missed the balloon, the bullets/ ordinance has to land somewhere.
(DIR) Post #ASJdIMz045ydIyVO5Y by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:01:02Z
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@mrcompletely Like I said earlier, they can use the Space Force Super Soakers.
(DIR) Post #ASJdP1QYbep6TkZDF2 by no1lion99@masthead.social
2023-02-03T22:02:14Z
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@lauren that’s the point isn’t it? A troll by Xi ahead of Blinken visit.
(DIR) Post #ASJdWZeZkk78ekj14C by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:03:36Z
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@mrcompletely If they wanted to shoot it down they could shoot it down. Trust me on this.
(DIR) Post #ASJdZXApQfeHpmDrFI by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:04:09Z
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@no1lion99 Which he canceled.
(DIR) Post #ASJddUHi71jE24KJUG by mrcompletely@heads.social
2023-02-03T22:04:52Z
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@lauren I was being generous with "strains credulity"
(DIR) Post #ASJdhaxfEMD3tjuP8y by mkaess@mastodon.au
2023-02-03T22:05:33Z
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@lauren @mrcompletely pew pew
(DIR) Post #ASJdjWHHcBbvx30FkG by lythander@mastodon.scot
2023-02-03T21:59:03Z
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@beige_alert @lauren Reports are that the balloon can and is navigating. Think "blimp"
(DIR) Post #ASJdjWuzEZMzwBZxdA by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:05:57Z
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@lythander @beige_alert Sort of navigating. At that altitude the amount of control for something like that would not be great.
(DIR) Post #ASJdqoxmXcAzvkMZk0 by Grizzlysgrowls@twit.social
2023-02-03T22:07:03Z
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@lauren It is remarkable how much is not being said about this "surveillance" balloon, as the Pentagon called it (their quotes). There's not much reason to use such a thing for surveillance. Might be a civilian stray, sure. But what else might it be delivering? If it's that big, could it be crewed? Wonder if we really know what's going on.
(DIR) Post #ASJdu5WVQZye9wA9uS by pjfasano@nova.community
2023-02-03T22:07:25Z
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@lauren @davidaugust There's also an interesting difference that you know when and for how long you'll be in view of a satellite, so for 4 or 5 minutes you can just hide stuff you don't want people to see... that doesn't work if a balloon just sits there and chills.
(DIR) Post #ASJdxqsBq4lbsf6GYa by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:08:34Z
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@Grizzlysgrowls I doubt crewed. Would be very risky. It could catch some terrestrial signals, get higher resolution imagery it passes. But hardly anything worth all the fuss.
(DIR) Post #ASJe4ShO7Hk0vtCQds by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:09:47Z
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@pjfasano @davidaugust Some of those satellites hang around over specific areas for long periods. I'm not talking geostationary either.
(DIR) Post #ASJeCJa7tiIcyOY0R6 by Grizzlysgrowls@twit.social
2023-02-03T22:10:59Z
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@lauren Remembering the Japanese balloons in early WW II, let's speculate wildly, shall we? How about a delivery system for bioweapons?It would also be amazingly sneaky of the aliens to fly through in a balloon...
(DIR) Post #ASJeEhdnPvAqAdP1hg by pjfasano@nova.community
2023-02-03T22:11:09Z
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@lauren @davidaugust Yeah, I guess I was thinking more about predictability -- it costs a lot of energy to change orbital parameters. (Have I played too much Kerbal Space Program? Maybe...)
(DIR) Post #ASJeL29E5NEbVd7f7I by Skirnir@theblower.au
2023-02-03T22:12:44Z
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@lauren But it's a balloon. A precious bodily fluid harvesting Tiktok baaalloooon!Moron Merrka
(DIR) Post #ASJeSpQdG99ENTysnw by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:14:03Z
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@MisterArix @davidaugust @pjfasano The satellite surveillance capabilities of both countries is formidable in all respects.
(DIR) Post #ASJegZL5sMxeX1wUSW by BrentInMasto@mastodon.coffee
2023-02-03T22:16:35Z
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@lauren Saw some speculation that the US regularly flies surveillance drones over China and we don't want them to start shooting ours down, so we're not shooting theirs down. More likely to me, this is just a bog standard weather balloon that was under inflated and just floated along below its intended altitude and ended up here.
(DIR) Post #ASJeiskYg7IZJPxLVI by pjfasano@nova.community
2023-02-03T22:14:38Z
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@MisterArix @lauren @davidaugust I feel like the astronomers would be up in arms about such a network... maybe they're just better than SpaceX/melon at keeping them dim...
(DIR) Post #ASJeitBV3wqieyYrUu by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:16:41Z
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@pjfasano @MisterArix @davidaugust You don't need massive numbers of satellites like brute force systems as Starlink use. Those things are toys compared to the big boy birds.
(DIR) Post #ASJenWZsXdsdzhAsqG by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:17:53Z
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@BrentInMasto Unlikely, the payload is apparently quite large, much larger than any normal meteorological balloon, and apparently has some maneuvering capability, which also is very different from weather balloons.
(DIR) Post #ASJeswNQ35YjSLvg4O by bastardsheep@aus.social
2023-02-03T22:18:50Z
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@lauren @stufromoz I miss the days when weather balloons were called UFO's and prompted alien abduction scares.
(DIR) Post #ASJf49dl4kaNmHv2Wm by BrentInMasto@mastodon.coffee
2023-02-03T22:20:47Z
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@lauren More like these google balloons then?https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210222-how-googles-hot-air-balloon-surprised-its-creatorsAgree with your take that the military wants that payload!
(DIR) Post #ASJfO2U9O4WlNXuHEe by ipd@universeodon.com
2023-02-03T22:24:15Z
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@lauren Balloon... I remember when there was the STARDUST capsule... I seem to remember that there was a system setup to pluck the capsule out of the sky by it's shute while it was falling. ..There was also project Skyhook and this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5GJ4cu311o
(DIR) Post #ASJfThtoq2cNGncETY by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:25:31Z
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@ipd Those were purpose-built for those kinds of recoveries.
(DIR) Post #ASJg1yyZr03u4vBXPs by spamvictim@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T22:31:42Z
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@lauren News reports say it's big enough that if they shot it down the debris might well hit someone. And it's obvious they'd rather get it intact.
(DIR) Post #ASJg3wXrrXBf7Pcviq by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:32:11Z
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@spamvictim Exactly.
(DIR) Post #ASJgjtqwGMuWvlYO3c by DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T22:39:37Z
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@lauren I'm guessing we find out a LOT by letting it do its thing.We find out what the Chinese WANT to know. We find out if they know of any sites of interest that aren't publicly known.We also deny a pretext for outrage. Remember, it DOESN'T MATTER if it's carrying weather equipment or an empty payload, the audience for footage of 'Civilian Chinese Scientific Equipment in distress shot down by bloodthirsty paranoid Americans" is the Chinese people.
(DIR) Post #ASJgsEHMCedob7slsG by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:41:10Z
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@DarcMoughty Or not. It's layer on layer. The Chinese might just as easily have structured this probe to mislead us about what they really want in some respect right now. Spy vs. Spy.
(DIR) Post #ASJgzRIYCECB0GsXIG by derekbrauders@mas.to
2023-02-03T22:42:26Z
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@lauren Slow news day? I mean, it's a balloon. Unguided. Wind blown. Tethered, it might be more problematic. A lost surveillance and / or weather balloon I can understand, but that's about it....
(DIR) Post #ASJhGQFnKgfIgeghgu by davidaugust@mastodon.online
2023-02-03T22:39:22Z
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@pjfasano @lauren yes, physics do tend to preclude single satellites from loitering over any location on earth outside of a geostationary orbit.
(DIR) Post #ASJhGQkdU1KqEJ7KlM by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:45:31Z
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@davidaugust @pjfasano The key word there is "single". Because with an appropriate orbit, you can keep one spot in view with successive satellites for quite some time -- and yes, it can be propellant expensive. Of course if you want to throw enough toy satellites at the problem (like Musk) you can do it that way but the upkeep expensive is enormous. That's why I predict Starlink could be abandoned within 10 years.
(DIR) Post #ASJhKftb7Nm2MGKhkG by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T22:46:14Z
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@derekbrauders It apparently has a very large payload and some maneuvering capabilities. So, not an ordinary balloon.
(DIR) Post #ASJhMlWj9WiuOydH96 by jeff@indieweb.social
2023-02-03T22:46:25Z
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@lauren I’m not particularly bent out of shape about it, but I presume China wouldn’t use this if it didn’t give them a tangible benefit that their spy satellites don’t.In the end they do this stuff… but we do it, too.I realize that we need to feign shock and surprise and extract some sort of diplomatic/foreign policy concession, but I can’t say I’m personally surprised or angry about it.We should send our own. Put a US flag on it. Forget the subterfuge. 🇺🇸
(DIR) Post #ASJhxWysCINa0EKQvA by ipd@universeodon.com
2023-02-03T22:53:10Z
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@lauren Still, this is cute..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC6PJYFRDCA
(DIR) Post #ASJi27Yq8Rtgc1LAPY by derekbrauders@mas.to
2023-02-03T22:54:07Z
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@lauren Ah! Not seeing any mention of that aspect in my part of the world. Thanks for the update. I know its really big, with a heavy payload, so would not like it dropped on my head. I assume it shouldn't be low enough to enter aircraft flight altitudes, but apparently has, which is a problem.. it'll be interesting to see what it really is.
(DIR) Post #ASJihRIRfD4vh5NFYG by radehi@qoto.org
2023-02-03T23:01:31Z
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@lauren Close-up of ant's face requires, charitably, 100 μm resolution. Can't orbit below about 200 km; 300-800 km is much more common. 100 μm at 200 km is 0.5 nanoradians. To get an Airy spot diameter 1.22 λ/d of 0.5 nanoradians with blue light of λ = 450 nm, you need d = 1.22 · 450 nm / 0.5 nanoradians = 1100 meters. Is not plausible that either US or China has a spy satellite currently in orbit with an 1100-meter-diameter mirror, much less a fleet of them.Additionally to neither country having the requisite rockets to launch a satellite the size of a small town yet, would be 19 arc minutes in diameter when it passed overhead, two thirds of the visual diameter of the sun or moon. Wouldn't help moving it to a higher orbit because the mirror would have to be proportionally bigger.Photos you see of cities on Google Maps "satellite view" are mostly aerial photos, not satellite photos, for this reason.
(DIR) Post #ASJjjRdvRjydIlwQvg by DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T23:13:07Z
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@lauren Yep. When I apply Occam's razor to this whole thing, the simplest conclusion I come to is that the Chinese -want- to infuriate and divide us with this. The MAGA crowd is losing their minds. No matter what we do, our actions (or inaction) will be used against us.
(DIR) Post #ASJkupoC2VijODjsdE by GreenMazza@aus.social
2023-02-03T23:26:23Z
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@lauren indeed, it’s all part of the theatre isn’t it - the more information available to us, the more clutter we have to sort through to see the forest through the trees…
(DIR) Post #ASJmUKRAFs8ITKSLUe by NaN@body.social
2023-02-03T23:44:02Z
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@lauren, It seems to me that between military and non-military resources, the US has enough jamming equipment and techniques to keep this thing blind, deaf and dumb. Wouldn't need to drop it from the sky if it's essentially inert. Which might be a possible Chinese motive: "Have we found an effective way to harden equipment against known US techniques?"
(DIR) Post #ASJnTj1bS8jsOUmBhA by DopeGhoti@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T22:49:41Z
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@jeff @lauren Or just catch it, copy its hard drive, and send it back on its merry way.
(DIR) Post #ASJnTjTxkhQLoS2pto by jeff@indieweb.social
2023-02-03T22:50:58Z
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@DopeGhoti @lauren I was wondering about that, but at that kind of altitude I wonder how easy it would be to intercept without shooting it down.
(DIR) Post #ASJnTk0DolEDQV8bBI by DopeGhoti@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T22:52:39Z
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@jeff @lauren If we can intercept a friendly aircraft flying at fighter-jet speed with enough precision to refuel it mid-air, we can intercept a balloon propelled by air currents.
(DIR) Post #ASJnTkRs9xLWoG4gHQ by jeff@indieweb.social
2023-02-03T23:06:35Z
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@DopeGhoti @lauren In that scenario one has control over both aircraft and can coordinate their speed and trajectory, and at a much lower altitude.What crewed vehicle do we have that can safely intercept a slow-moving object so that someone can board it — presumably by hovering next to it somehow — at between 79,000-121,000 feet (typical for high-altitude balloons)?
(DIR) Post #ASJnTksSZ6c68iVuim by DopeGhoti@infosec.exchange
2023-02-03T23:50:41Z
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@jeff @lauren Dirigibles?
(DIR) Post #ASJnTlK6uIjPWTRzou by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T23:55:07Z
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@DopeGhoti @jeff A steerable balloon (aka blimp) is often called a dirigible, though more formally I think it refers to airships with a solid framework.
(DIR) Post #ASJnguCrBwBipzKDAG by xgebi@hachyderm.io
2023-02-03T23:57:30Z
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@lauren I prefer the Chinese counter intelligence theory. Scare them into trying to find a mole.
(DIR) Post #ASJnkhQSeRheMEUtUm by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-03T23:58:10Z
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@NaN If it's in routine communications it's probably talking to a satellite, though at that altitude there are of course other possibilities. But we don't want to rush jam it, we want to learn how it's communicating first. And it may not even be gathering much of any interest vis-a-vis the other routine collection methods.
(DIR) Post #ASJpZ0OQVQMtcI65Wy by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T00:18:27Z
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@radehi Yeah, I know how this stuff works. I was making a point about all the balloon hyperbole, not presenting a scholarly discussion of U.S. surveillance capabilities. But hell, if you want to play that game, check out the ants from the movie "Them!" (1954).
(DIR) Post #ASJqXmmphylr58Umhc by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T00:29:29Z
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@lythander @beige_alert Especially with the winds up there.
(DIR) Post #ASJqq9nat79ZfKbyWO by alabasterquill@universeodon.com
2023-02-04T00:32:49Z
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@lauren I wish I was surprised how easy it is to manipulate people with this flimsy crap.But I'm not surprised.
(DIR) Post #ASJsTqjhHZMC54HOIi by Waterloo@mastodon.lol
2023-02-04T00:51:04Z
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@lauren don't confuse the idiots with facts
(DIR) Post #ASJsiUwWah8SpnGSMC by radehi@qoto.org
2023-02-04T00:53:49Z
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@lauren Think that in light of enhanced surveillance capabilities feasible from aerial platforms, your dismissal of balloon concerns as hyperbole or political theater are ill-founded.
(DIR) Post #ASJtF85gZlUjW26q00 by Sonikku@techhub.social
2023-02-04T00:59:43Z
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@lauren @donmelton if you’re interested in our spy satellite capabilities https://youtu.be/JRLVFn9z0Gc
(DIR) Post #ASJxh3HCT6NwVe45Ue by mookie@orangebunny.net
2023-02-04T01:49:23Z
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@lauren I was totally thinking the same thing when I heard this uproar about the balloon.
(DIR) Post #ASJzsXw51ADagvnLQO by jongary@macaw.social
2023-02-04T02:14:04Z
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@lauren https://youtu.be/KlyERnu7zUw?t=17
(DIR) Post #ASKHD4BSWoxTifMJZQ by Bernard@friends.ravergram.club
2023-02-04T05:28:16Z
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@lauren Population is getting restless. What do we do? Oh look. Balloons. I like balloons.
(DIR) Post #ASLE5bkbjpBKnvVkki by lauren@mastodon.laurenweinstein.org
2023-02-04T16:27:57Z
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@admin Yep. Sooner or later.