Post ARRofZobGPj2oBAdU0 by RobHadley@mastodon.online
 (DIR) More posts by RobHadley@mastodon.online
 (DIR) Post #ARRofZMawXK9PK4Gpc by emc2@indieweb.social
       2023-01-06T17:51:26Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       Predictions on the #House #Speaker vote:1) The votes will go on for at least 2 more weeks.2) Hakeem Jefferies will become Speaker (!!)3) This will happen after a voting round in which some combination of present votes and absences drives the margin of victory down to 212.Second most plausible scenario is (1) still happens, 2) McCarthy becomes Speaker, 3) a handful of conservative Democrats push him over the edge.#uspol
       
 (DIR) Post #ARRofZobGPj2oBAdU0 by RobHadley@mastodon.online
       2023-01-06T17:54:54Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @emc2 Do you think it possible McCarthy makes it now carrying so much baggage in the farm of concessions to the chaos caucus? Will anyone trust a thing he does?
       
 (DIR) Post #ARRofaMdDswoVj5oWm by emc2@indieweb.social
       2023-01-06T18:13:57Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @RobHadley No.The MAGA caucus is essentially acting as a third party.  Their governing ideology is proto-fascist nationalism (most direct historical analogue is probably the Dolfuss regime in Austria).Their incentive structure is such that they lose if they make any compromise.They're the criminals in a hostage standoff.
       
 (DIR) Post #ARRofamVffeDnzCTrc by emc2@indieweb.social
       2023-01-07T16:35:27Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @RobHadley Seems I overestimated the cohesion of the MAGA caucus.On the other hand, from what I've heard of the concessions (if he even honors them), the speakership will be an ongoing battle.
       
 (DIR) Post #ARRofbAGFMe8zeJRsu by RobHadley@mastodon.online
       2023-01-08T22:53:24Z
       
       1 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @emc2 He's going in as the weakest speaker in over a hundred years. Nancy was always going to be a tough act to follow (and be sure he'll be constantly compared to her) but he is a disaster. The GOP missed a great opportunity to rid itself of MAGA influences (which make it virtually impossible to elect) but instead chose the path of continuimg failure. It bodes well for Dems in 2024.As #Trump said "You'll be tired of winning." Err... riiiiight.