Post AQD367psAtiTbZmQsq by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
 (DIR) More posts by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
 (DIR) Post #AQCzFkdorleSkRTcky by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-02T21:10:44Z
       
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       Version 2 of my attempt at understanding UK energy consumption. The future scenario assumes 100% electric road, rail and domestic heating (heat pumps only). 600 TWh would be needed, but there is still some 400 TWh of fossil fuels to replace.I've not reduced the number of journeys or cars.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQCzFlDyhKZiYaOV7I by publius@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-02T21:20:16Z
       
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       @Havant_Enviro I hope you're making use of the excellent work of the late David MacKay FRS, sometime chief advisor on energy policy to HM Government (not that HM Government ever paid him that much attention).https://www.withouthotair.com/
       
 (DIR) Post #AQD367psAtiTbZmQsq by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-02T22:03:19Z
       
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       @publius I've read some of that many years ago, but it has become a bit dated. It has inspired me and many others though.There are a lot of people now taking the analysis and calculations further.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQD7G0gU1Bac8bMCZs by publius@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-02T22:49:58Z
       
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       @Havant_Enviro Be careful not to make unrealistic assumptions. For instance, patterns of domestic energy use will tend to change on a timescale of about 40 years (you may be able to find a better estimate for the period over which half the housing stock is rebuilt), not much faster.From 1887 to 1947 in Britain, primary energy supply remained static, while final energy consumption tripled. That was due to massive increases of efficiency in end use. Such gains do not remain to be made again.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQD8N8gglCQ6wOPswa by publius@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-02T23:02:27Z
       
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       @Havant_Enviro Efficiency gains are largely made piece-meal, and not all measures will be applicable in each case, so the gains attainable on a large scale will always be markedly less than the maximum that can be attained on a small scale.And if you're assuming that everyone will install heat pumps, you have to assume that many will use them for summer cooling as well as winter heating.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQEEHJr57VmmipqUpU by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-03T11:43:21Z
       
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       @publius Yep.This isn't intended to be a super accurate project. It is an ongoing one. You are doing what I intended it to do!Discussion.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQEEYDxMIxVhLmqJ72 by Havant_Enviro@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-03T11:46:24Z
       
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       @publius It doesn't matter if the assumptions are unrealistic.The point is to make people think and to understand that the task is complicated.I know the assumptions in the current illustration are unrealistic.I suspect no one will be happy with it.Which would indicate it's doing it's job.
       
 (DIR) Post #AQFIAf1sagVFL9w8lU by publius@mastodon.sdf.org
       2022-12-04T00:01:40Z
       
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       @Havant_Enviro I find it exceedingly important to begin by ascertaining where we are now, and then investigate where we can reasonably get from here, and what the paths are like. Without that, what basis have we for making choices?