Post APmHxyVRGYxTTR2wca by spinmaven@social.quodverum.com
(DIR) More posts by spinmaven@social.quodverum.com
(DIR) Post #APldnxgXT2LfrhuPy4 by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:42:44Z
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INCOMING ELECTIONS THREAD šØ šØšØ#midterms22 #newyorkQV1/ As the dust settles from this debacle of a midterm, a few unlikely heroes emerge from the ashes. As of typing this thread, the most likely outcome in the house is 221-214. I understand people are excited and celebrating pelosi losing the gavel but I can't in good conscience get excited about this colossal under-performance. To each their own though. this thread wont be an autopsy on what happened this election.
(DIR) Post #APldq2OEwhMR2JL7r6 by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:43:07Z
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2/ One of the unlikely heroes emerging is from DROP's own state of NY. My man. Lee fucking Zeldin. What a masterful performance.
(DIR) Post #APldskib6ZT3669kuW by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:43:36Z
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3/ If you went back in time to the beginning of this year and told anybody what happened in the NY elections this midterm, they would all laugh you out of the building. In a D+23 state, Zeldin was able to come within 5% of the hooch. to put that in perspective, in 2018, Cuomo beat out molinaro by 23 points(59%-36%) and in 2020, biden also beat Trump by 23 points(60%-37%). Zeldin's heroics also flipped 4 house seats from D-R which is actually the most of any state this cycle
(DIR) Post #APldutGWIX2CBX2i6y by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:44:00Z
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4/Ironically enough, this will likely be our razor thin margin of victory in the house so imagine if it had not happen, we'd still have the drunk hag from San Francisco for another 2 years. š±https://gph.is/g/Zklok68
(DIR) Post #APldwWEusWlRLo4M8O by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:44:17Z
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5/There's been some narrative about the 4 seats that were flipped diminishing the results. Something along the lines of those seats were swingy suburb/rural districts and they would have flipped anyways regardless of what happened. As the resident SQV expert on New york politics, I can't begin to tell you how wrong that is. I'll go over each seat.
(DIR) Post #APldxMOGyz975sqYwC by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:44:27Z
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6/Let's begin with NY-03. This is a nassau county long island district. Last year when I saw the red wave that smothered nassau county, I decided to make my vote count and Move in with my parents. They live in this district and it is a D+3 district. However, it has voted democrat for every presidential election since Reagan. It has also had a democrat representative for the past 10 years named tom suozzi.
(DIR) Post #APldzAp4xh8XnSFYGm by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:44:46Z
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7/ Suozzi decided not to seek re-election and run against the hooch in the primary for governor. He was thoroughly embarassed
(DIR) Post #APle2RGMIKyzeYZBpo by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:45:21Z
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7A/ With Suozzi gone, NY-03 seat was open and had no incumbent advantage for the Democrats. However, this was still a tough seat the gain for the GOP. George Santos was the GOP candidate. He previously lost to Suozzi in 2020 after being ahead by 5000 votes and then getting crushed by 16,000 mail in ballots that came in 3 weeks later that all broke for Suozzi.
(DIR) Post #APle4qlMSPJbJrDYLQ by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:45:48Z
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8/Santos was going up against Suozzi's hand picked successor, Robert Zimmerman. Running on a campaign of nothing but "muh santos is going to ban abortions", Zimmerman had the backing of dem heavyweights such as the hildabeast
(DIR) Post #APle6fAkWOAhx1xPSy by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:46:07Z
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9/ As For Santos, the national GOP pretty much left him completely out to dry. the amount of dem aligned PAC's that funneled money to zimmeman was impressive. Here's the totals.
(DIR) Post #APle9Oic9Wg3n06LDM by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:46:37Z
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10/ This race was not on the radar for many as a potential GOP flip. Although it was rated a tossup, 538 gave the dems a 68% chance to take it.
(DIR) Post #APleBM58vVauBuZXd2 by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:46:58Z
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11/Santos ended up serving hillary clinton's butt boy a 10 point drubbing. Great show!
(DIR) Post #APleDJCQcAJlpXuZHc by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:47:19Z
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12/ Now, let's move on to NY-04. This is another district in Nassau county and an even bluer district than NY-03. They have not voted for a republican president since Reagan and have had a democrat representative for 25 years. The incumbent(Kathleen Rice) in my opinion saw the writing on the wall last year during the Nassau county red tsunami and decided to high tail it out of there leaving the seat open.https://patch.com/new-york/gardencity/kathleen-rice-announces-she-wont-run-re-election
(DIR) Post #APleFAMKSBZIzYQbBI by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:47:40Z
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13/ The GOP candidate for this district is Anthony D'esposito, A relatively unknown local politician and ex-police
(DIR) Post #APleHZymAZr71wYuIK by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:48:06Z
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14/ His opponent was Laura Gillen who was also a local politician that has served as the supervisor of the town of hempstead. This race was ever further off the map as a potential GOP flip. A district that has been blue for nearly 3 decades, it was a long shot by the GOP. 538 gave gillen a 78% chance to win it
(DIR) Post #APleIkHjL3nZHZz3po by El_Jefe@noagendasocial.com
2022-11-19T16:48:19Z
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@watch4thedrop āHildabeastāš
(DIR) Post #APleJpJq6kIPBWUBvM by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:48:30Z
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15/D'esposito ended up winning by almost 4 points
(DIR) Post #APleLEyyB3tF4HOlc0 by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:48:45Z
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16/Now on to NY-17. The district covers northwestern westchester/rockland county. This is a D+9 district. Has not seen a GOP rep since 1983. If you guys followed DROP's NY redistricting threads earlier this year, you will know why this win really stung the dems. for the TLDR version, after the NY supreme court struck down the hochulmander maps, a taskmaster was given the job to draw a fair map. When finished, Sean Patrick Maloney's current district(NY-18) found itself much more GOP friendly.
(DIR) Post #APleNfb6C7W8ByOKrw by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:49:12Z
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17/ SPM is the current DCCC chair so in a gambit to hold on to his seat in gov, he carpetbagged his way to NY-17 to run there and displaced a progressive rep by the name of Mondaire Jones. Jones was forced to sacrifice his seat and run in another district to make room for SPM who thought he could hold on to his seat running in NY-17. To defeat the DCCC chair, we drafted a young up and coming star for the GOP in Mike Lawler.
(DIR) Post #APlePak5DUPZiIVgtU by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:49:33Z
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18/ An Unknown local politician going up against the DCCC chair sounds daunting. 538 gave SPH a 70% chance to win
(DIR) Post #APleRA3xNgwbY1YQq0 by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:49:49Z
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19/ However, a few weeks before the elections, the dems started to sweat and realized SPM could really lost his seat after a few favorable lawler polls were released. Lawler ended up winning by 1.5 points, making SPM the first DCCC chair to lose their seat in 40 years. This is probably the sweetest and most unlikely flip of the 4https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2022/10/24/sean-patrick-maloney-risks-being-first-dccc-chair-to-lose-seat-in-40-years-in-latest-sign-of-midterm-trouble-for-democrats/
(DIR) Post #APleSyXFDAv6NI7P2O by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:50:09Z
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20/ Finally, we come to NY-19Although on paper, this district(R+3) should have been the easiest to flip, We lost the special election held 3 months earlier with the same candidate. Therefore, this district was rated as a tossup lean dem. 538 gave the dems a 58% chance to take it
(DIR) Post #APleUkTqRDYpMbNF0i by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:50:28Z
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21/For this district, we actually have to thank the hooch believe it or not. Earlier in the year, the Lt governor she chose was arrested by the FBI in a federal probehttps://apnews.com/article/brian-benjamin-new-york-lieutenant-governor-arrested-3682bc9913a2421f1b1613497286b591
(DIR) Post #APleX74lOpqK1NlmpE by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:50:54Z
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22/ She had to scramble and pick another lt governor to run with and she ended up scooping up the current rep in NY-19(anthonio delgado). Thus left this seat wide open and gave republicans another seat to target and flip. We picked an excellent candidate in marc molinaro with good name recognition in NY GOP ranks and this race was actually well funded by the national GOP. I believe this was the only seat NRCC thought there was a shot to flip.
(DIR) Post #APlea9P9CJr272kihM by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:51:27Z
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23/ That concludes the 4 flips for NY. An honorable mention is NY-18. our candidate lost by less than a percent. Ironically, this is the district SPM vacated because he thought he could save himself by going to NY-17. The democrats ended up holding on to this seat. There's a sweet serendipity to that. He screwed the progs out of a seat, ended up losing anyways, and the democrat who was expected to lose in his district ended up winning.
(DIR) Post #APlef7nwZehIb8is6q by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:52:21Z
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24/ So the point of this thread, don't let anybody diminish the red wave in NY. It was humongous and had a profound impact on this midterm. Hell, had it not happened, we'd probably still have 2 years of the ghoul from San Francisco. It was a good feeling to have my vote actually count for the first time. republicans also swept all the local races(State assemblyman/senate) congrats to Jake blumencranz and jack martin. On to 2024 and hopefully a continuation of red trend in NYEnd/
(DIR) Post #APlfIW7C7d5dI0Vj9M by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T16:59:28Z
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@YoungBlood https://tenor.com/bkJfV.gif
(DIR) Post #APlhfibu1yAAbz471M by Carsh@noagendasocial.com
2022-11-19T17:26:05Z
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@watch4thedrop thank you for that rundown!! Excellent insight. It makes me believe even more that shenanigans are really going onā¦. Seems that if a race is not on the front page or discussed nationally the republicans did well, like i thought they would. Its only when a race gets national attention that the race skews to the dems. Im really concerned that texas, arizona and even idaho are getting brought into the dem cheating circle. (I live on the west coast of the nation). Thx again
(DIR) Post #APlhkuUbHReGua7pLM by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T17:27:00Z
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@redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood regardless of the fault or reasons, we agree it WAS an under-performance. i'll save my champagne for a real win.
(DIR) Post #APlhts27nFEhtH4w9Q by Jaygarza1@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T17:28:38Z
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@watch4thedropNice Summation Drop. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXyYhV9J6mE
(DIR) Post #APljnxCXria85dG8Iq by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T17:49:58Z
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@redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood quite frankly, it doesn't seem their voters care about the current economic situation or that biden is senile. We need to change up our plan of attack, not them
(DIR) Post #APlkWvvdRbELApnVei by Gmajv@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T17:58:06Z
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@watch4thedrop Bongino had Dāespesito on a few times. He loved him!
(DIR) Post #APllo6g6pYeXOFHvUm by Gmajv@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:12:24Z
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@watch4thedrop I think as the dust is settling we see GOP is making headway in many places (not MI). We canāt give up We have to work hard. I know in MI even though we lost big time the grassroots volunteers were more than Iāve ever seen & it was leadership on old guard & Trump side fighting for dominance instead of fighting for our candidates. Lots of lessons for all levels of GOP to learnNational, state, county, both sides of GOP & candidates
(DIR) Post #APlm4viepRQKKBVBlw by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:15:27Z
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@Gmajv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wcz_kDCBTBk
(DIR) Post #APlo6Z3uErVYXeLdmC by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:38:09Z
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@Jaygarza1 perfectly timed clip š
(DIR) Post #APloMZe1q9pcywsUnw by Jaygarza1@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:41:02Z
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@redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Had a talk with some elderly folk who are Diehard Dems. Highlighted to them Chuck and his Amnesty bid for 11M+ . Cause "We are running out of workers"- boohoo . Also told them the plight of babies being aborted and how it's ok by the Dems. A few respond "Well that's just stupid" - how can you work that out ? To which I ask - but people support these crazies , what do think about that ? Answer : Then the Republicans will win. š¤£ Yes I know.
(DIR) Post #APlpTfKJDHXGaMbEps by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:53:32Z
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@antonionpellegrini @Jaygarza1 np! I do ithttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qq905UcmmE
(DIR) Post #APlpbL7gDKGSF2LsEi by watch4thedrop@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T18:54:55Z
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@Jaygarza1 @redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood it's amazing how many diehard democrat voters you can find that doesn't agree with a single democrat policy.
(DIR) Post #APm16fWJWgHhyY11k0 by Jaygarza1@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T21:03:50Z
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@watch4thedrop @antonionpellegrini The revolution will not be televised. or will it ?
(DIR) Post #APm1EWboXf3EedKnQW by Jaygarza1@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T21:05:15Z
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@redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Yes ! Got em thinking now lol
(DIR) Post #APm3Mpai3BFLkeuF4C by Jaime@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T21:29:10Z
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@watch4thedrop @redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood In a nutshell!
(DIR) Post #APm3zaGaxZyfW8ybpo by Jaime@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T21:36:10Z
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@watch4thedrop Good thread!Thanks!
(DIR) Post #APm9WeXia7w66gZcXY by barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T22:38:10Z
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@watch4thedrop Fantastic thread. Was glued to every on-the-ground post story of the NY state situs. Bravo and kudos, and thanks.
(DIR) Post #APm9x9s4j5SgnbjZsO by inverness01@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T22:42:57Z
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@watch4thedrop @redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood hard to win against straight up cheating .
(DIR) Post #APmAFE1M2KMusignpo by inverness01@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T22:46:13Z
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@Jaygarza1 @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood I question peopleās morality that are due hardship. Hey Amy if them can ignore this shut show is beyond me .
(DIR) Post #APmAIpZQst8ACzLfPc by inverness01@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T22:46:53Z
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@watch4thedrop @Jaygarza1 @redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood brain dead Orwellian dipshits
(DIR) Post #APmAS7xRtEafqH0yoa by barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T22:48:33Z
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@redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Respectfully and civally disagree. The fault in the 2022 elections for GOP outcomes is too complex to pin it on the many unsupported candidates in the general, who previously won their state primaries on their GOP constituents votes. If they were not acceptable to others in GOP(e?) after the local voters put them in in the primary, that is the GOP elitist snobbery and undermining at play. The GOP voters there spoke in primaries... the GOP bailed.
(DIR) Post #APmCvVG0XgW8PTpZQG by Zemeliko@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T23:16:16Z
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@watch4thedrop Good thread, with interesting info.It's great to have local information, to help understand much better what really happens behind those final numbers.I agree with @redwhitebluedude that the midterms were no debacle. Not as successful as we'd hoped, but not objectively bad.And I indeed hope that this trend in NY continues.@YoungBlood @Gmajv @barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @Jaygarza1 @inverness01 @Jaime @EPL16 @antonionpellegrini @WhirledPeas @PathIntegral @Zapato @lolajl
(DIR) Post #APmFtaAza8uUwwGDcu by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-19T23:49:33Z
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@barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @spinmaven @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Stitt is in solid as far as I know
(DIR) Post #APmHxyVRGYxTTR2wca by spinmaven@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T00:12:45Z
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@EarlThePearls @barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Heās in solid, agreed. But IMO it should have easily been well north of 60%. Those Hofmeister ads swung some folks I personally know.
(DIR) Post #APmINKOj0hdubpzmPA by spinmaven@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T00:17:19Z
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@EarlThePearls @barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Honestly, there should be a little purple dot 50 miles straight north of Tulsa. Thereās a significant progressive presence in local govāt.
(DIR) Post #APmNNWU0ZrBdrUNYi8 by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T01:13:23Z
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@barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis Bartlesville. Joanne Lives there@spinmaven @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood
(DIR) Post #APmNa0KtPVnBvM4Cxc by DTPrez@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T01:15:38Z
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@watch4thedrop Impressive analysis, Dropster š
(DIR) Post #APmOJWVQeN0GjEhTAu by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T01:23:53Z
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@DLMarch54 @spinmaven @barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Norman skews things quite a bit
(DIR) Post #APmRUUM7Hhi96kGT6u by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-20T01:59:28Z
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@spinmaven @DLMarch54 @barrsniffsatjejuneanalysis @redwhitebluedude @watch4thedrop @YoungBlood Small airport Diners have some of the best food. And you can even drive to them if you must...
(DIR) Post #APsTfSdHMUbWjIF01w by TerriC@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-22T23:52:08Z
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@watch4thedrop @Jaygarza1 @redwhitebluedude @YoungBlood Drop, @BlkLdyPatriot and I call those diehard Dems "Gabby Johnson Democrats" based off the character in Blazing Saddles.
(DIR) Post #APsnoNYfazFcgIcBk0 by Twoseyloo@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-23T03:37:51Z
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@watch4thedrop Very Sweet!
(DIR) Post #APso0E00xfFoVf3OGe by Twoseyloo@social.quodverum.com
2022-11-23T03:39:59Z
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@watch4thedrop Great thread. Thank you. BTW added to my vocabulary āhochulmander (sp?) . š¤£š¤£š¤£