Post APOjyQ8CZRBMYOffI8 by briannawu@mstdn.social
(DIR) More posts by briannawu@mstdn.social
(DIR) Post #APOjyL6bFxvixysobI by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:53:15Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
1/ I am the Executive Director of a SuperPAC. I instituted a policy to not fund election polling. Let me tell you why, and why we know little about how tonight will go. I believe modern polling can no longer accurately predict the margins in play, 1 or 2 percent. Here’s a dirty little secret about poling. They are drastically less accurate today than ten years ago.https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/
(DIR) Post #APOjyLh74D8YnDxyVs by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:54:30Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
2/ The reason for this is pretty straightforward. Technology has made it less straightforward to get participants. Everyone in the business ends up “correcting” their data in a myriad of ways. And the assumptions of their model have to be true for the poll to be accurate. If you torture data long enough, it will tell you what you want to hear.
(DIR) Post #APOjyQ8CZRBMYOffI8 by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:56:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
3/ Something we do to try to counter this problem is to average a bunch of polls together. But there are 1000 ways this can go wrong. Who is conducting the poll? Are you assuming Republicans are more motivated? How do you factor in issue salience? Younger people voting? With every assumption you make in the model, you run more risk. And again, 1 or 2 percentage points.https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/
(DIR) Post #APOjyRfupZkDLFS6To by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:57:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
4/ My opinion is polls are great for telling you what issues and messages work in general terms. We fund those. But I don’t think they’ve proven to be particularly accurate at figuring out tight elections that hinge on a percentage point or two.In fact, I think they hurt democracy. Because people tend to vote when they think they can win, and polls can distort that perception.
(DIR) Post #APOjyTHAsX8sJ5tNC4 by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:58:48Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
5/ Before I say this, want to add that I love and appreciate men in general. You look great today. Have you been working out? Please don’t get angry. But, my other opinion is I’ve looked at models, and I think they’re generally built by men who are statistically underestimating how much abortion is going to drive turnout. Men, as a cohort, tend to underestimate women. Especially men who think they’re too smart to have biases.
(DIR) Post #APOjyUqf257dBRVE92 by briannawu@mstdn.social
2022-11-08T14:59:34Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
6/ Bottom line? Let’s not see any gnashing of teeth and tearing of garments before tonight. Vote. Make your voice heard. Don’t assume the worst. We know a lot less about how tonight is going to go than the Pollsters with the financial incentive to think they’re the second coming of Nostradamus believe.
(DIR) Post #APOldLYOauc6BT0BWa by ThotsAndOpinions@poa.st
2022-11-08T15:52:07.031966Z
3 likes, 0 repeats
@briannawu Ofc
(DIR) Post #APPHw4BeaKT8MCKoYS by Kaunaz@poa.st
2022-11-08T16:07:31.792509Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@briannawu This isn't Twitter you dumb fuck. The character limit is 5000, learn to read you inept troon.
(DIR) Post #APPHwQxxtOBZ0P6hua by soupyhatecrimes@chudbuds.lol
2022-11-08T18:52:17.899027Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Mr Wu this is a women-only space, pls fuck off back to Twitter kthnxbai:hyperblob:
(DIR) Post #APPHxAqnINmXJU6d7Y by connectionerror@poa.st
2022-11-08T20:42:18.459949Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@briannawu @briannawu yes give us the political opinions from the failed politicians
(DIR) Post #APPHyJY8RE2kaAvEOW by ServantOfChrist@poa.st
2022-11-08T21:54:27.856422Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@briannawu Tranny says what