Post AHouMAQLt7NMnUlQUC by search_social@bae.st
(DIR) More posts by search_social@bae.st
(DIR) Post #AHmviUa7Kov3K7cZ60 by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T00:41:20.227595Z
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For those of you that have been paying attention, most front have stalled, and in some cases the Russians are being pushed back. Kharkov for instance was under complete Russian control earlier in the war, but now Ukrainians are advancing and it is once again contested.It seems the Russian brass have realized this war is going poorly, because about 10 hours ago they announced that “the first phase of the operation”, which was supposedly just about weakening Ukrainian forces, is “complete”, and now they’re going to focus on the “liberation” of Donbas.Which means they’re trying to set lowered expectations. They were originally planning to take Ukraine as a whole, but now they see that isn’t happening, and they’re going to try to just take Donbas and pretend that was the goal all along. We’ll see if they succeed.
(DIR) Post #AHmvnOlIOqUaipBmj2 by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T00:42:13.767193Z
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(DIR) Post #AHn0IlDrLCa7Azl9rk by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-26T01:18:32.929302Z
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<They were originally planning to take Ukraine as a wholeAre you saying that the “Russian brass” was originally intending to “take Georgia as a whole” but after they “saw that wasn’t happening” in August 12, 2008 they “set lowered expectations” by securing the independence of the two breakaway oblasts of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and otherwise withdrawing their troops?@dave
(DIR) Post #AHn0IlgDdlGaax1o4O by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T01:32:41.306368Z
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Did Russia invade the entirety of Ukraine and try to encircle Kyiv when he took Crimea in 2014 like they were doing until recently when it became clear that wasn’t going to happen? No.Does taking Donbas prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and potentially NATO, which Putin simps were assuring me just a few weeks ago was the real reason for the attack and that the Ukrainians provoked him actually? No.Does it make sense to spread out your troops and attack the entire nation at once, rather than focus them on the region you are supposedly trying to take? No.The goal was a complete takeover. They believed they could do it, and quickly, as evidenced by the Feb 26th Kremlin press release that was accidentally auto-published, and archived before they could delete it, indicating that they believed they were going to have taken Kyiv in just 3 days.But they didn’t understand that the 2022 Ukrainian military isn’t the 2014 Ukrainian military they steamrolled when they took Crimea, and that the Russian’s battle plan and state of their equipment was poor, which was why they ended up with a 60km-long convoy stalled outside of Belarus with no fuel, that they can’t drive around because half their tires are dry-rotted and would fail if you tried to deflate them to make them usable in Ukraine’s muddy off-road conditions.Now they’re aiming for a much more modest goal: the annexation of Donbas. But if you are going to tell me you believe that was their plan all along, I have a bridge to sell you.
(DIR) Post #AHn3rWiFa0T2AmFBy4 by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-26T01:57:35.805893Z
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<if you are going to tell me you believe that was their plan all along, I have a bridge to sell you.You are already trying to sell me a bridge, that you have some secret insight into what the Russian “plan” was. I also do not know what the plan was, but I find the actual historical outcome in 2008 more persuasive than a random Kremlin goon running his mouth. We could compromise that Russia was hoping for a quick surrender but prepared for this contingency instead.<when he took Crimea in 2014 <Ukrainian military isn’t the 2014 Ukrainian military they steamrolled when they took CrimeaI’m happy you’re aware that the year 2014 exists but you seem unaware of what happened in that year. Russia had no need to “take” Crimea nor the Donbas, rather it was Kyiv who, after illegally expelling the duly-elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych with CIA assistance, needed their jingoist military to “take” regions who refused to submit to the violent coup d’etat, Crimea and Donbas.<Does it make sense to spread out your troops and attack the entire nation at once, rather than focus them on the region you are supposedly trying to take? No.Well I didn’t graduate from West Point or anything but in most video games I play it makes more sense to surround an entrenched enemy position, cut it off from supplies and reinforcements, and bomb it into oblivion than it does to suicide all your troops into a meatgrinder.@daveukraine-2010-election.jpg
(DIR) Post #AHn3rXD5jL8ZiQfp2W by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T02:12:34.883775Z
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I like how you give this long explanation with bad military arguments. No, you do not spread out your forces and invade a large country all at once if your goal is just to take a small part of that country. To argue such a thing is stupid, and it will remain stupid no matter how many times you try to re-state this argument using different words.Yes, Russia did in fact need to send in troops to take over Crimea, and they only sent troops into Crimea, because at the time that was their goal. Though I understand as a bootlicker you could never accept that the Russian army is currently failing to accomplish what they sought out to do, so this conversation will go nowhere.
(DIR) Post #AHn9iKLInleUvUVU9I by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-26T02:40:17.504832Z
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<I like how you give this long explanation with bad military arguments.I like how you try to pretend Euromaidan didn’t happen.<bootlickerPawn sacrifice.@davewar-chess.png
(DIR) Post #AHn9iL04MCGIxva2gy by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T03:18:07.793203Z
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Euromaiden did happen, denying that it did would be ridiculous, and your reading comprehension is as bad as your understanding of basic military strategy if you think I was ever denying that it did.I would suggest not taking up such a stupid cause next time you want to simp for Russia. The idea that they spread their forces out to invade the entire country, with the objective of taking an oblast that represents 4% of that country, is laughable.Oh yeah, we didn’t even get into Putin’s speech justifying his invasion to the Russian people. Since you seem adamant that they were only trying to take donbas, you may find the English translation of it enlightening -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APPjVlUA-gsSeriously, it would be funny if you came back after watching it and tried to explain how an hour long speech about how Ukraine never was meaningfully sovereign, how the government is deeply corrupt and exploits its people, how its lands were only gifts from the USSR and not really historically Ukrainian, how Ukraine has plans to build nuclear weapons, how NATO has continued expanding Eastward, how Ukraine intends to join NATO and how that would be an existential threat to Russian security if they did so, makes sense when the goal is supposedly just to seize an oblast that was only mentioned in the last 3 minutes of the speech, the seizure of which would not prevent any of the above.
(DIR) Post #AHouMAQLt7NMnUlQUC by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-26T13:02:31.717667Z
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<denyingI accused you of far worse than “denying”, I accused you of ignoring.<Putin’s speechI’ve listened to many Putin speeches including that one, thank you. Let me return the favor by inviting you to listen to the speeches of your own government:Nuland and Pyatt hand-picking a puppet government for after their Euromaidan coup d’etatBiden bragging about using his power as a US official to get the prosecutor in Ukraine fired for investigating the Burisma bribes to his sonEstonian FM admitting CIA is covering up its involvement in the Euromaidan sniper massacreUniversity of Ottawa admitting CIA involvement in Euromaidan sniper massacre@dave
(DIR) Post #AHouMAs0EJUgBFhVaK by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-26T23:35:31.259736Z
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Cool, thanks for the resources I didn’t ask for about a point I was never contending.But now it begs the question: If you did watch his speech as you claim, why in the everloving fuck did you come into this thread to try to argue that his goal with this invasion was just about taking Donbas?
(DIR) Post #AHpCNlmUHNa87f20US by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-27T02:37:24.690496Z
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<a point I was never contending.You contended the point here:<Russia did in fact need to send in troops to take over CrimeaRussia did not take over anything. Kyiv used THEIR army to attempt to take over Crimea and the Donbas away from the duly-elected President Yanukovych. They failed.<If you did watch his speech as you claimIf you watched the speech as you claim you will recall he said that he will “demilitarize and denazify” the whole of Ukraine, not take it over. Considering Azov HQ in Mauripol has been flattened, military targets across the rest of the country missile’d into oblivion, and the 60,000 AFU troops that were preparing to invade Donbas are now completely encircled, I see no reason those objectives are not being fulfilled.I offer you once again the compromise that he was fishing for a free win with an instant Kyiv capitulation but otherwise content to use the threat of Kyiv to pin down forces while grinding out the rest of the objectives the hard way.<why in the everloving fuck did you come into this threadTo cite the historical precedent of Georgia 2008. This is not the first time NATO has invaded Russia’s neighbors and not the first time Russia has beat them back. Why would this time be any different?@daveukraine-2010-election.jpg
(DIR) Post #AHpCNmHgPOXFgPcv7A by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-27T02:57:28.452578Z
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“When we blew up Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that wasn’t attacking Japan, that’s denazifying it.”That’s you. That’s what you sound like. You don’t “demilitarize and denazify” a country without invading and forcing a surrender. At this point you’re not even disagreeing that they invaded Ukraine, just whether their ultimate goals of the invasion included annexation.By the way, that invasion has been a failure. That’s why they’re announcing that really the goal was just to weaken Ukraine’s military, something they’ve also failed at, since the few thousand troops Ukraine has lost will be more than made up for with the 10,000+ anti-armor and anti-air weapons coming into the country, and Russia has lost way more troops than they have, which won’t be replenished with high-tech anti-armor weapons from richer sympathetic countries.
(DIR) Post #AHpH16ZhIniDiv3qOe by search_social@bae.st
2022-03-27T03:19:42.755853Z
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<At this point you’re not even disagreeing that they invaded UkraineDo you have dementia? Not 5 minutes ago we established (for the 3rd time) that the legitimate government of Ukraine was expelled by the CIA invasion in Euromaidan 2014. This is no more an invasion than the Allies storming Normandy was an invasion of Germany.<By the way, that invasion has been a failure.Well, I’m happy you think so. If you think Putin lost you are unlikely to support the wag the dog escalation that the Deep State is so desperately seeking to cover up their crimes. Keep your eyes peeled for the “Russian chemical attack” to suddenly appear since “Putin was desperate from losing”.@daveukraine.png
(DIR) Post #AHpH172lYixrB4f3ho by dave@gleasonator.com
2022-03-27T03:49:23.828885Z
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Yeah, no. He got outed after reversing course on his campaign promise to westernize. Subsequent elections were as legit as his was, and now you’re moving the goalposts by trying to argue that he’s not invading because there is no legitimate Ukraine to invade.And while I don’t think the war is over, I do believe that Putin has failed to accomplish his primary objective. I also don’t see Ukraine willingly ceding territory in a peace agreement now that massive amounts of advanced anti-armor and anti-air munitions are flowing into the country, giving them the firepower they need to start advancing and pushing Russian forces out.At the start of the war analysts expected Ukraine would lose, and quickly. Instead, they managed to stall most of of their advances even with the limited equipment they had at the time. Imagine what they’re going to be able to do a month from now when those 10,000+ Javelins, Stingers, etc.So ultimately, yes, I do think he has lost. His once-feared army has been shown to be so ineffective that even Ukraine can hold their own against them. Sanctions have crippled his economy, and and the EU is now delaying shutting down nuclear reactors, and even turning on old ones, in an effort to reduce reliance on Russian gas. Germany has reversed course on an 80-year-old post-war policy of pacifism and is now rapidly re-militarizing.Even if he did end up taking Donbas in a peace deal, what he gains from this is nothing compared to what he’s lost. He isn’t getting his no-EU guarantee, his demilitarization, his no-NATO guarantee, or anything like that, and now the Russian economy is sanctioned to hell and will be for the forseeable future. International air travel to most countries has been shut down, all the modern western luxuries that upper-class Russians have enjoyed they are losing access to, and the brain-drain problem has ramped up massively as something like 200,000 Russians have fled Russia since the war began.And honestly, even getting Donbas is his best case. I’m not even sure he gets that, and at the end of this he might not even have Crimea, we’ll see.