Post AHatdsWNHztsuZzhbM by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
(DIR) More posts by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
(DIR) Post #AHaWkqs6AfpJJVk9IW by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:05:07Z
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Thread on the 2024 Senate Map and its significanceFirst, a note on 2002. The 2022 Senate Map would normally favor the Democrats in a neutral or pro-Dem election. As it is, the GOP will benefit from what will very likely be a strong year for Republicans with potential landslides building in several states. The result would flip the Senate with three likely GOP flips, one seat that has a reasonably good chance of flipping, and two or three others that might flip in a full scale red wave1/2
(DIR) Post #AHaWztKhIoTtI6I9Gi by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:07:50Z
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There is a limit to how well the GOP will do this year, not because of turnout or strong candidates but because of the map itself. That it is, the structure of the electoral map itselfFourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. 2/3
(DIR) Post #AHaXVqHgAm8t6P7D60 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:13:35Z
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There is a limit to how well the GOP will do this year, not because of turnout or strong candidates but because of the map itself. That it is, the structure and schedule of the electoral map itselfFourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. There are several states where Republicans have an excellent chance to flip - GA, AZ, NV with NH as a reasonable option for flip. But it is not a long list2024 is quite different2/3
(DIR) Post #AHaXe0CXBYgQAybFKK by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:15:05Z
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2024 is the year when the GOP victories in the Senate could result in a seismic shift that has been building for many years. It will very likely be a poor year for the Democrats in the Presidential race and by far the weakest Senate map for the Dems in recent history.I have not found anything comparable in recent decades to what the Dems are looking at in 2024. 3/4
(DIR) Post #AHaXxflQsbuIaDIpSi by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:18:38Z
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The primary reason why 2024 looks likely to be an exceptionally strong year for the GOP and a correspondingly weak year for the Democrats is because the Senate will be catching up with history.The Senate lags well behind the curve of transformation and change in both political parties, whether positive or negative. It takes years - often many years - for the Senate to reflect the changes and trends in culture, society and politics as they are reflected in power dynamics.4/5
(DIR) Post #AHaYCpacd9n7OtTT7I by masterblaster@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:21:22Z
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@timr That’d be as seismic as 1994. Three decades to teach the GOP to be a bit more aggressive and stick to stated principles.The big lesson is for The GOP to not fall into the Gingrich trap.
(DIR) Post #AHaYGGggL2CQJMwodM by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:21:59Z
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For the Democrats, the changes in their own party in recent years are proving to be entirely negative, in terms of their appeal to the majority of voters across the country. They are systematically marginalizing themselves. However, they have not yet experienced the full negative impact as incumbent advantage and six year terms and the other party's failures can help protect both Dems and Republicans in times of trouble. 5/6
(DIR) Post #AHaYbWYQXajFbRDpke by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:25:50Z
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But we are now moving into a period when the failures of the Democrats and the successes of the GOP are starting to catch up with both parties in the Senate. This is just beginning to be evident this year but will become fully manifest in 2024.For the Democrats, then, there are real problems and obstacles for them as they face a shrinking electoral map. Those problems are not easily addressed, let alone solved. So far, they are responding only with panic and rage.6/7
(DIR) Post #AHaYyIc8XIgL1pojZI by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:29:57Z
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The unfolding crisis for the Dems can be traced to the extreme radicalization of the Democratic party that moved into higher gear during Obama's second term, and of course has grown much worse in the last five years. That has resulted in many states turning slowly away from the Democrats and towards the GOP. States that were once competitive for the Dems in the Senate in good years for them are now off the list, unless there is an exceptional circumstance7/8
(DIR) Post #AHaZ6ASQkIsY331sBs by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:31:22Z
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As a result, there are numerous Democrats who will be defending seats in 2024 in both red and swing states who will find it more difficult to be reelected; in red states, it will far more difficult. Ten to fifteen years ago, quite a few states that are now red had Democrat Senators. Many of them have been replaced by Republicans, but by no means all.8/9
(DIR) Post #AHaZCNQHSCv3zrz5n6 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:32:30Z
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The last of them will be up for reelection in 2024 in states where the political circumstances, dynamics and balance of power are very different, and have changed a great deal, from when they were first elected: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.Other swing states have benefited from GOP failures and internal conflict, as well as unusual circumstances, such as special elections9/10
(DIR) Post #AHaZlYuqiOHdmG3njk by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:38:51Z
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@timr They stole the election from Trump. We all saw that. They don't count. We're owned.
(DIR) Post #AHaaZwM7q8jYxDqBKi by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:47:57Z
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Other swing states have benefited from GOP failures and internal conflict, as well as unusual circumstances, such as special elections. Examples: Georgia and Arizona. Other recent examples: Missouri, Indiana, Alabama. In all of those cases, the GOP failures have at least been addressed and younger Senators likely have many years ahead of them. Thus the problems are much less likely to be a problem for the GOP going forward and the Dems will no longer benefit from temporary situations10/11
(DIR) Post #AHaace727oU5F44V8K by karnage@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:48:26Z
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@redwhitebluedude @timr Good stuff.
(DIR) Post #AHaadXiVOC8dhD1hg0 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:48:37Z
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@joebennett I don't respond to despair. We have to vote
(DIR) Post #AHaawUz7lqb2j0q4DA by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:52:02Z
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In fact, the Dems are now moving into a period when their own Senators will be retiring. The average age of Dems in both Houses of Congress and in leadership is much higherOther swing and swing/blue states that had been assumed to be moving slowly into the fairly safe blue category for the Senate are no longer following that trajectory that seemed to be inevitable: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada. 11/12
(DIR) Post #AHabZgXUkIMJr0bJVw by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:59:07Z
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Those Democrat assumptions are proving to be far too optimistic for the Democrats. The bedrock of the Democrat election strategy was supposed to be the Hispanic vote. In their arrogance and hubris, the Dems behaved as if a large, growing and diverse population of voters would inevitably become and remain Democrats.12/13
(DIR) Post #AHabbdsbbY8qBWPNia by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T01:59:28Z
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@timr Like we did before? It seems not to be working. I really do appreciate your effort, but ....
(DIR) Post #AHabitBx4bP9hXufi4 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:00:47Z
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Now it is clear that these assumptions were also wrong. The share of Hispanic voters for the GOP is growing. That is just beginning and it is transforming the American electoral landscape and the reality of political power and rising leadership.All of this does not bode well for the Dems but it is very good news for us13/13Finis
(DIR) Post #AHabuKc1SsXBviZ0HQ by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:02:51Z
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@TearGasBreakfast Thanks Robert. Yes the best is to come. A time of extreme turbulence and difficulty. But the old power structure is declining
(DIR) Post #AHacajLxrunMpEGnkO by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:10:31Z
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@timr UAW counts the votes in Michigan, change that if you can.
(DIR) Post #AHadGaX13eXTcyOlkW by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:18:04Z
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@joebennett 😎
(DIR) Post #AHadycy1McG5vI1srQ by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:26:02Z
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@masterblaster It is good to see the Republicans finally learning lessons and taking the offensive
(DIR) Post #AHaeBD54v3MlP3KX9U by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:28:18Z
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@redwhitebluedude They are slowly realizing it and playing defense, because they have no other option.They are also moving to shore up their deep blue bulwark states as their national map and future prospects shrink and decline
(DIR) Post #AHaeEXCeYtpKgCSUYi by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:28:55Z
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@antonionpellegrini Thanks. Glad they are helpful
(DIR) Post #AHaeGQbs2wWAoI9mbo by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:29:15Z
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@alpineibex Thanks. i appreciate it
(DIR) Post #AHaehgqrlegJ0CAcc4 by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T02:34:11Z
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@timr I confess, I don't get it. Memes are not my primary method of mis-communication.
(DIR) Post #AHahZeljvWn45YdKWe by Gmajv@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T03:06:20Z
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@timr always appreciate your threads Tim!
(DIR) Post #AHanddsj7RdrmbxAm0 by Ballerina@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T04:14:17Z
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@timr As usual, excellent analysis.
(DIR) Post #AHasVxRX0RFFuDO7hg by AliceInWonderland@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T05:08:55Z
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@timr Great thread. Thanks.
(DIR) Post #AHatdsWNHztsuZzhbM by joebennett@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T05:21:34Z
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@timr Sorry Tim,I'm tired of hearing it. Voting alone is like a self indulgence. Say it if you want, but you can't.We are owned.
(DIR) Post #AHb2GpmoBtITM9leS0 by Dawnz@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T06:58:15Z
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@timr A great post Tim And a lot to consider.I am choosing to stay optimist and the facts you presented are very helpful.Im that type of person-initially when something happens im not happy with-such as election results,im upset but then I switch gears and say "plot twist" In elections anythings possible.I refuse to stay negative long.I just pray. “God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”
(DIR) Post #AHb4z155l2Sl2LVz4y by Donjanusgjrdrm@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T07:28:38Z
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@timr Cheers to a red wave in 2024🥂 In the mean time I can't just keep holding my breath.So your threads help to remind me to breathe. Take a deep breath and relax.
(DIR) Post #AHbkrJNw155nZ0Kxge by masterblaster@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T15:17:51Z
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@timr They have to keep that going and NOT revert back to “ loyal opposition “ aka Vichy
(DIR) Post #AHbwUkEFFFWxbioJ1c by inverness01@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T17:28:14Z
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@timr your threads always give me hope but its hard not to be negative and assume they will just keep stealing them . We were told they could never do it on such a grand scale yet they did it in our faces .
(DIR) Post #AHbz8dqWaudhItrqtM by Clayrjr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T17:57:51Z
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@timrGreat stuff brother. Love your analysis. One thing to add...a shrinking voter base. I'm back in the classroom...one of my reasons for QVS hiatus...but I can tell you...the draconian lockdowns broke the students in public schools. Many will not be actively engaged in society. They are numbed and jaded. Lethargic. I've coined the term 'disenraged'. Just wore out before the race began. United in fatigue. Most folks have no idea of the level of damage done by draconian oligarchs.
(DIR) Post #AHcBaQubTZ82kOnH8K by masterblaster@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-20T20:17:21Z
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@EPL16 @timr The GOP has to get through the media, entertainment & otherwise to get truth out as well as getting people not to vote ethnicity & toxic dependence. It’s a tall order, not impossible. Think Scott Pressler. One or two at a time. Also let the Communists keep destroying themselves
(DIR) Post #AHimvEqNTxgU3hOF72 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:43:57Z
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@Clayrjr Very good to see you back. You've been missed.Good for you, returning to teaching, although it isn't easy. Your students will only benefit.I have a relative who is a teacher and has said the same thing about the terrible effects of the lockdowns and the disruptions and trauma. Your word 'disenraged' fits perfectly.
(DIR) Post #AHimziEOAATmMNkpUm by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:44:46Z
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@Ballerina Thanks - I appreciate it
(DIR) Post #AHin0yJjq96YXYrCfA by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:44:59Z
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@AliceInWonderland Glad it was helpful
(DIR) Post #AHin5C3qgQ4QK9RDGq by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:45:46Z
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@Gmajv Thank you
(DIR) Post #AHinEDbAKvrvhMKDJI by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:47:23Z
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@Clayrjr @timr What do you think caused it the most?I was at local hamburger place to get a to go order.Two ice cream concoctionsA mix and a maltedMix had a lid. Malted didn'tMe asking for a lid triggered the young girl. She said they're over there --> I said you get me one.She walked off the floor....
(DIR) Post #AHinXhcKx2ZuIoACqe by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:50:54Z
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@WTOS Yes, Murphy is one of those who announced, a few weeks ago.She was supposed to be a rising star. Only 43. She referred to herself as a moderate Democrat.This is a sign of disaster for the Dems.Murphy was interviewed for Politico and explained her frustration with the radicalization of her party and what it means for holding on to power:1/2
(DIR) Post #AHincrQLux88AJ19ay by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:51:50Z
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@WTOS Murphy on the Democrats:“My first term … there was a lot more tolerance for, ‘Do what you need to do to hold your seat, and come back because we’re trying to build towards [a] majority"2/3
(DIR) Post #AHinhDOaAc8xT0GYK0 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:52:37Z
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@WTOS Murphy on the Dems, cont:“With us being in the majority, that tolerance eroded a bit. It’s unfortunate, because I think in order for us as Democrats to hold the majority, you have to be able to win in seats like mine and in redder seats. That means you have to cut your members a little bit of leeway to vote their district. This march towards party unity is going to be detrimental to our ability to lead.”3/4
(DIR) Post #AHinri1j8dfrMdZzZw by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:54:31Z
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@WTOS Murphy was accused of being anti-immigrant.“I believe in immigration and comprehensive immigration reform and the ability for people to immigrate to the United States in a legal way,” said Murphy. “But I also believe in law and order, and ensuring that we hold people who commit crimes accountable.”Interesting to read an unusually honest commentary from a Democrat about the self-destruction of her own party4/5
(DIR) Post #AHio1ytbH6fSZtfzqi by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:56:23Z
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@WTOS Murphy also refers to the BBB debacle and the unrealistic attitude of the radicals and also, especially, of the Biden administration:"But it got worse when it came to trying to pass Biden’s agenda, and what Murphy called an effort by leadership to “beat moderates into submission.” 5/6
(DIR) Post #AHio8IxNbMbuX8SYAC by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T00:57:31Z
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@WTOS Murphy on the refusal of the radicals to accept reality:“I can’t tell you the number of times I said, ‘You can’t keep promising rainbows and unicorns when your political reality is such narrow margins in the House and a dead-even Senate,’” said Murphy. “They took the difference between rainbows and unicorns and political reality — which is anger and disappointment — and turned that anger and disappointment against their own members.”More here:https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/03/18/a-retiring-moderate-democrat-unloads-on-the-party-000184306/6
(DIR) Post #AHioPpi355Dv2Me9gG by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:00:41Z
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@timr @Clayrjr I see a lot of under 20s around here that seem to have no zest for life in them
(DIR) Post #AHipL9YLyXC15TRazI by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:11:03Z
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@EarlThePearls @Clayrjr . The isolation and panic and uncertainty of the Covidmania and the paranoid hysteria of those who were supposed to be in authority. Arbitrary rule changes and public humiliation of those who questioned.Lack of meaning, hope and trust. Nihilism in the culture and society. The odd world of social media, which has never existed before
(DIR) Post #AHipOa5JmtWoF6Uuno by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:11:40Z
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@Clayrjr @timr If that was my employee I would have fired her on the spot.That was the second time that happened at that store.Kids can't even figure out how to run the register for the limited menu. It is all preprogrammed too. But don't dare order anything but a number X as the transaction will become too complicated and cause me to cry if you make me figure it out. Then I will run off into the backAla Carte might as well be Ala Farte, cuz it raises such a stink
(DIR) Post #AHipcGAybXvAYDfPM0 by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:14:08Z
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@EarlThePearls @Clayrjr Unable and/or unwilling to cope with reality and living on the misery of their own emotions, which become the benchmark.
(DIR) Post #AHipdfNOOcXwzv93Hk by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:14:24Z
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@Clayrjr @timr The good thing about the store is I can come inside to order and be first served while folks idle in their cars 10 deep at the drive through!YOUNG PEOPLE:Always look for the good in something no matter how bad it may seem
(DIR) Post #AHiqu3cg7EV6mhfsqe by Seedsaver@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:28:34Z
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@joebennett @timr
(DIR) Post #AHirkRO70EknY5q74y by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:38:01Z
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@joebennett @Teneseo And you are a good man as well.Respect
(DIR) Post #AHiryMBBAIBjRtQTEe by EarlThePearls@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:40:33Z
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@Clayrjr @timrLook outward when outLook inward when in
(DIR) Post #AHisNsa1pw3vB5DebY by saramangas@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:45:09Z
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@Clayrjr @timr You’re describing exactly what I see everyday here in Mexico City.People still staying at home doing “home office”, children going to school one week yes next week no. Banks and public offices using the virus to justify their awful service. All united in fatigue but not in the will to keep on fighting.
(DIR) Post #AHitGucTxHNLQkbn8K by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T01:55:06Z
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@saramangas @Clayrjr "All united in fatigue but not in the will to keep on fighting."Well said
(DIR) Post #AHixDRzkKBNxbH5wlk by saramangas@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T02:39:18Z
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@timr @Clayrjr Thanks Tim!
(DIR) Post #AHj5HdgXbMoKeGcVNY by Lisa22@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T04:09:42Z
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@timr @WTOS Very interesting, thanks Tim!!
(DIR) Post #AHjAlilXmA9Ore7j0a by Linnie@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T05:11:09Z
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@timr @WTOS This was a huge statement from the article: “Her party right now doesn’t want a member like her. Centrist Democrats, once the ballyhooed beacon of the House Democratic majority, are now greatly out of fashion. “Brutally honest statement not usually uttered by a Democrat. Thanks for your assessment, Timothy
(DIR) Post #AHjLRAvQz1UDc89h2W by RonOgletree@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T07:10:42Z
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@Linnie @timr @WTOS I can't recall, is she one of the 31 or is she the next addition?
(DIR) Post #AHjPwhtCsCTudzP8DI by BlkLdyPatriot@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-24T08:01:13Z
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@EarlThePearls—Well, you can thank the Biden administration and the Democrats for creating the laziness among people in the workforce.Why go back to flipping burgers when you can sit on your arse and collect more in unemployment than getting up to earn a paycheck?That’s why it was so horrible when many of the Blue states were locked down.Yes. The Democrats built that. @Clayrjr @timr
(DIR) Post #AHkqgmM9ODvDmiX2lU by Linnie@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-25T00:35:35Z
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@RonOgletree @timr Timr mentioned she was one of the ones who previously said she wasn’t running.
(DIR) Post #AHv5Jlxy7D6ko9JAVU by timr@social.quodverum.com
2022-03-29T23:06:37Z
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@RonOgletree @Linnie @WTOS She is one of the 31.