Post AG4gH1uBCPGzlPSe1I by Mapreader@freeatlantis.com
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(DIR) Post #AG4SSGZHclB54E9PBQ by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T15:50:55Z
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For @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 and others:A Thread Regarding Mark KellyArizona's Invisible Senator
(DIR) Post #AG4SUPpABHuGLzbSts by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T15:52:26Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 A few thoughts regarding Arizona's junior Senator and his prospects for retaining his seat in November.TLDR; he is vulnerable and stands a good chance of losing.I say this for a number of reasons:
(DIR) Post #AG4SsnZVXXmsxHuJPs by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T15:54:46Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 VISIBILITYEven though he's a Senator form an increasingly important state, Mark Kelly has been almost invisible. This isn't really a surprise because he isn't media savvy and not an experienced politician. Being in front of the camera or on the radio doesn't come naturally for him and it shows.This will become a liability if he faces an experienced and credible opponent.
(DIR) Post #AG4SsogdOX5APgFWAC by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T15:57:38Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 EXPERIENCEAs he is wont to say, he's a pilot and astronaut.That's all well and good but...the job he is running for is Senator.This is his first elected office and his inexperience is showing. He hasn't had time to develop his skills and create his persona. Kelly was thrust into this position because the Democrat Party saw an opportunity to take a seat from the GOP.But he's not really up to the task, it's evident now.
(DIR) Post #AG4VTJLn447Rqg1sie by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:19:36Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 After all, it's one thing to go up against perhaps the worst state-wide candidate in a generation (Martha McSally) and prevail. It will be another matter entirely to go up against Mark Brnovich (current AZ AG and likely GOP nominee) in a state-wide race.
(DIR) Post #AG4VTJzqf8A5quls9o by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:22:45Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 BELIEFSKelly may crow about this US Navy and NASA accomplishments for good reason. AZ is a strongly pro-Military state and venerates it's veterans.However, in many respects Kelly is on the left fringes of Arizona politics. He's a reliable vote for whatever Chuck Schumer brings to a vote. Also, he's anti-2A in a very pro-2A state. Also, he is a Border squish in a state affected by the crisis there.Not representative by any means.
(DIR) Post #AG4VeWhnkdgOSCfm1A by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:26:42Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 INSTINCTSKelly's political instincts are not well-developed at all. Unlike Kyrsten Sinema, he seems politically tone-deaf and can't "read the room" in the state he ostensibly represents. To me he seems clumsy in his role and not well-suited to the job.
(DIR) Post #AG4WBuOufoX1V3kuxs by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:29:28Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 ROOTSAlthough Kelly lives in Tucson, he's originally from NJ and spent most of his pre-political career in Houston, TX. He doesn't have deep roots here, meaning his understanding of Arizona politics and culture is underdeveloped. Moreover, being from Pima County; he's surrounded by other Democrats and not as familiar with the rest of the state. This can be a liability for state-wide office.
(DIR) Post #AG4WBuuolC3J60gOh6 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:33:59Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 LEGITIMACYI will "go there" because I have my doubts about his win in 2020. My belief is that the election in AZ was corrupt and illegitimate. I think that will will come out shortly, meaning Kelly's election may not be valid. Yes, Martha McSally was a lousy candidate, that is a given. However, DJT was wildly popular here and no R Congressmen were knocked-out. Color me suspicious based on the results down-ticket and what I saw with my own eyes.
(DIR) Post #AG4WnaHvtqxU7sSKP2 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:37:08Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47GABBYAs in Gabriel Giffords, his wife. She was a rising star for the Democrat Party and being groomed for state-wide office. Gabby was a fairly centrist Democrat and got along well with Republicans. She had fantastic political instincts, was media savvy, and had experience winning races.All the things her husband lacks.But then she got shot by a nutter. She survived but was a shell of her former self. It was a legitimate tragedy.
(DIR) Post #AG4WnaxlOKQ2Dc1jbU by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:39:46Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Gabby was a natural, she could play the centrist or independent convincingly, better than Sinema in my opinion. She was young, attractive, and energetic too. She had a future, everybody with a cursory knowledge of AZ politics knew it back in the late 90s. Gabby also came from a family that owned a business, so she knew more than many of her colleagues did about the affects of legislation on families.
(DIR) Post #AG4WnbXZFD3i0emKPY by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:42:13Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Her husband though, lacks all of her good qualities and introduces all the bad ones that come with being a Democrat these days. Kelly attempts to sell his "independence" but it's unconvincing. It simply doesn't square with his voting record or beliefs. He can't finesse this like either his wife or Senator Sinema can. In a state that values independence and freedom, this is a liability.
(DIR) Post #AG4XLeSwsEgQvdqwnA by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:44:19Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 So with all these liabilities, what are his prospects for November?Not good.This will be a rough cycle for the Democrat Party nationwide. Kelly will face similar headwinds that other D candidates will, in a state that is increasingly MAGA and energized. Ongoing efforts to address election fraud are underway too along with investigations into 2020.This is likely to have an impact on Kelly's reelection bid.
(DIR) Post #AG4XLgIk39hucZ5pA0 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:46:22Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Should he face Mark Brnovich (likely) or Blake Masters (possible), Kelly will be in for a fight. Brnovich is a bulldog who isn't afraid to take on anybody. He became AG by defeating the incumbent R AG in the primary. That is a serious accomplishment. He is also investigating election fraud statewide, that includes...Pima County. This indicates to me he is playing offense and going for the throat.
(DIR) Post #AG4XMNWNMLAAfInosi by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:47:18Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 As for Blake Masters, if he prevails he will have the backing of Peter Thiel as well. I'll discuss this in another thread but Masters is a neophyte who has serious potential upside.
(DIR) Post #AG4XbWs8sHVm0jCxfs by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:50:59Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 The GOP is going to focus on this race because they smell blood in the water. Kelly is vulnerable and beatable. In AZ, GOP turnout tends to be higher than the Ds plus MAGA will be energized going into the mid-terms. If I were to guess the outcome, I would say this race is an R pickup. It may not be that close either.
(DIR) Post #AG4Xf6Sd0v0lFsyijA by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:52:12Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 That's how I see it, I welcome your feedback and comments. It will be an interesting, perhaps even historic mid-term election. Senator Kelly should enjoy the ride while it lasts, I suspect his time in DC will come to an end this fall.END
(DIR) Post #AG4Xjkh7Mrj5CDyMIS by Argentum47@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:53:15Z
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@Davez_Not_Here @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA Kelly gives off no vibes of any kind to me. He seems like cardboard.
(DIR) Post #AG4ZOlsHz6hogRJxwm by MMA@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:21:47Z
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@Davez_Not_Here @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Kelly, frankly, rode into office on his wife's name and reputation.She enjoys solid bipartisan goodwill in politics. Gabby has this goodwill because she was shot by a crazy and survived. It gave her hero status as a survivor of gun violence.Kelly leveraged it shamelessly. It's one thing to run for office; Kelly's finding that it's quite another to execute the duties of that office.
(DIR) Post #AG4ZOmTrjOlOYytyW8 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:11:02Z
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@MMA @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 You hit the nail right on the head. Gabby was genuinely liked in AZ across the political spectrum. Her shooting was a tragedy *everybody* mourned. A real loss for Arizona. Gabby is a shell of herself, sad to behold....and yes, Kelly shamelessly used that tragedy to push outlandish gun control policies.In Arizona!Completely tone-deaf and divisive. It shows he has no political instincts and out of step with the voters.
(DIR) Post #AG4Zj7eQjJTi0uXiYS by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:15:31Z
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@Argentum47 @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA He's the Methane Candidate:OdorlessColorlessWeightlessNothing memorable whatsoever if you take away his NASA accomplishments and Navy service.
(DIR) Post #AG4cX2EjKozTbmRx3I by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:14:14Z
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@MMA @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Also, what enrages me (and others no doubt) is how he shamelessly used his wife's tragedy to advance his career.It was blatant to the point of being transparent. Completely amoral and exploitative. Gabby was brain damaged and lucky to be alive, yet Kelly used her (and uses her) as a prop.Evidently it worked, although I have expressed my doubts about it. But this fall, I don't think that act will work again.
(DIR) Post #AG4cvlUgijdYvChqG8 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:19:27Z
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@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 Gabby was the best the Democrats could offer. She would have been a formidable candidate for Senate. I rate her as better than Sinema. She was THAT good, a natural.
(DIR) Post #AG4cvlxOzybcMG8m12 by DrFell@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:27:42Z
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@Davez_Not_Here I give Sinema points for bravery considering what happened to Gabby. How can she not be a bit leary of the DNC censoring her, possibly placing a price on her head. What saves her is that she is highly visible and monitored for her decisions on the BBB bills.@Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47
(DIR) Post #AG4cvmOLNo9lhokI0e by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:30:21Z
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@DrFell @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 The Arizona Democrat Party just censured her but I don't think it will matter. If they primary her, she is likely to win. The general election in 2024 is another matter entirely, especially if she faces a credible opponent.
(DIR) Post #AG4dfwXA0Tl8Twsk64 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T17:59:48Z
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@Argentum47 @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA He's the Methane Candidate:OdorlessColorlessTastelessNothing memorable whatsoever if you take away his NASA accomplishments and Navy service.
(DIR) Post #AG4ewsXODZs6xsd1ua by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T18:04:05Z
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@DrFell @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 If the Democrat Party does somehow manage to get a credible challenger to beat her, the seat is as good as lost to them. Time will tell if the Ds here are truly unhinged from reality or if they will accept reality and vote for their incumbent.I think that reality will cause D primary voters to come to their senses. That said, I don't discount the possibility of the crazies to score an own-goal.
(DIR) Post #AG4gH1uBCPGzlPSe1I by Mapreader@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T16:01:40Z
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@Davez_Not_Here @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA @Argentum47 This is exactly my concern of a certain Senate candidate in Nevada as well.
(DIR) Post #AG4gH2XWq6kTjRs4Lw by Argentum47@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T18:28:54Z
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@Mapreader @Davez_Not_Here @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA Recently, Laxalt called Brown out for being a relatively recent arrival from Texas and Brown in response attacked Laxalt for being from Virginia. He lived there because his mom worked there as her dad was US Senator Paul Laxalt. Adam’s biological father was then US Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico.While Laxalt has only lived in Nevada for a little over eight years, he does have roots and held elected office.
(DIR) Post #AG4izPDy3mlyjk0Ley by ConnieinVA@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T18:59:19Z
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@Davez_Not_Here Excellent analysis of what’s happening in AZ. Thank you! @DrFell @Lumuz @wziminer @Argentum47
(DIR) Post #AG4jCEGy5aY2XGWTD6 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T19:01:39Z
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@Argentum47 @Mapreader @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA The whole Laxalt/Domenici was kept under wraps for a long time. I never knew about it until around the time Pete died. Don't know how widely known that was but it's another fascinating political story.Paul Laxalt was a significant figure but was never given his due. Wonder how that went over when he found out his colleague from NM was messing around.
(DIR) Post #AG4jIQoaN1bZAjCjvE by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T19:02:45Z
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@Argentum47 @Mapreader @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA My guess is the Laxalt name still carries significant weight in NV. Plus, Adam was in the fray when it came to the 2020 election. That must have helped him with MAGA Nation.
(DIR) Post #AG4jWmdi1Xj8uixcX2 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T19:05:21Z
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@ConnieinVA @DrFell @Lumuz @wziminer @Argentum47 Thanks, glad I can contribute something to the discussion.
(DIR) Post #AG4o0wRyVnc1qU6laS by Argentum47@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T19:55:39Z
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@Davez_Not_Here @Mapreader @Lumuz @wziminer @ConnieinVA More so upstate, where the Basque population resides, which is probably why he spent so much time campaigning up there in 2018. It was his comfort zone.
(DIR) Post #AG4ub8yI2F22pTrvaS by Lumuz@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T21:01:40Z
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@Davez_Not_Here Excellent and thoughtful thread, and very informative responces.I love how you were also sensitive to the personal tragedy of the Giffords shooting (politics is irrelevant there), and it's so kind of you to tag me as well.Thank you, well appreciated!@ConnieinVA @DrFell @wziminer @Argentum47 @Mapreader @Bubber_Dude @scottmitchellrose @MMA
(DIR) Post #AG4ub9YnqUEseix5V2 by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T21:06:35Z
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@Lumuz @ConnieinVA @DrFell @wziminer @Argentum47 @Mapreader @Bubber_Dude @scottmitchellrose @MMA I was glad to hear that she was alive but when I saw footage of her afterwards it was painful. She has declined since then too, Gabby is a shell of who she was. It's another reminder of how fragile life is and how an insane nutcase can alter your life in an instant.
(DIR) Post #AG4ubA67qatUK4XhRI by Argentum47@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T21:09:24Z
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@Davez_Not_Here @Lumuz @ConnieinVA @DrFell @wziminer @Mapreader @Bubber_Dude @scottmitchellrose @MMA I remember how the media used it as a way to attack Sarah Palin and the Tea Party. “OMG THEY PLACED SCOPE TARGETS OVER THE DISTRICTS SHE CAUSED THIS”
(DIR) Post #AG4umpwabXSDI9eJ5k by Davez_Not_Here@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T21:05:12Z
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@Lumuz @ConnieinVA @DrFell @wziminer @Argentum47 @Mapreader @Bubber_Dude @scottmitchellrose @MMA I was in Australia when that happened. IIRC the initial reports from both ABC and News 9 reported that she was dead. I was like "F***, somebody killed Gabby!" and was sad to hear that. There were others who got shot that day, including a Federal Judge who swam with one of the Tucson-based teams. Politics aside, people are people and their lives are precious.
(DIR) Post #AG4umqSUguyUt6Zmoy by Lumuz@freeatlantis.com
2022-02-02T21:07:46Z
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@Davez_Not_Here Very true. That's the correct approach to these issues.Consider the most detestable political figure - Hillary, Biden, Fauci, Schumer, Pelosi, Schiff - we don't want any nutter shooting any of them.If they are to be executed - only after a fair trail, not before. The Rule of Law should be the most important thing.Otherwise, next time it goes against good people as well.@ConnieinVA @DrFell @wziminer @Argentum47 @Mapreader @Bubber_Dude @scottmitchellrose @MMA