Post AFUXLAFGLInqI7rksi by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
(DIR) More posts by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
(DIR) Post #AFUVlY6857VLtF30Pw by lukedashjr@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:41:33Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Anyone know if #Omicron has a shorter incubation period? Would be nice to at least reduce the time someone isolates before we reconnect...
(DIR) Post #AFUVzGSWSWTLEq3tKa by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:44:01Z
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@lukedashjr FWIW…it will be essentially impossible to avoid infection for any reasonable length of time though…a large fraction of humanity will get it this year. Maybe ¾ of those who haven’t had it yet.
(DIR) Post #AFUWIOTEtdkJaVWD6e by lukedashjr@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:47:28Z
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@drgo I expect it to burn through Florida before March or April. Once ~everyone has had it, spread should be rare.CDC is politics more than reality.AFAIK their advice isn't based on actual studies anymore?
(DIR) Post #AFUWkY46oj5RSBBnLE by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:52:33Z
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@lukedashjr your assumption that “spread” will be “rare” I don’t think is medically sound. People getting infected for the first time will become rare. But people fairly easily and rapidly winning a battle against the next minor variant will remain common for decades. The end game isn’t “covid goes away.” The end game is HCOV-NL63…a common cold virus that’s endemic everywhere. CDC has done some shady shit. Really shady. Quarantine/isolation depends on what your personal goals are
(DIR) Post #AFUWsKeyXeyMC692iu by lukedashjr@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:53:58Z
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@drgo It won't go away completely, but it will become as low risk as the flu
(DIR) Post #AFUWt8Yf1Pd8wzZhp2 by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:54:07Z
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@lukedashjr but yeah…March/April there probably won’t be many people getting infected for the first time.
(DIR) Post #AFUXLAFGLInqI7rksi by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T07:59:11Z
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@lukedashjr two interesting mechanisms here: 1) after you’ve successfully recovered, second infection will be easy to fight off. 2) is more interesting…as virus variants compete for the dwindling pool of infectable humans (all covid variants will generate a robust immune response to all other variants), there are only 2 ways for a virus to win this competition: A) bind/enter cell more efficiently so fewer viral particles needed (droplet —> airborne evolution) and B) infect people but…
(DIR) Post #AFUXiQRAJ78RAcWcdM by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T08:03:23Z
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@drgo @lukedashjr …don’t make the infected person so sick that they self isolate. The longer an infected person can stay in circulation the better the virus will compete. Well, it seems the only way to infect someone and have a long delay before they notice is to make the person only mildly ill…it’s like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle: long delay —> mild illness; severe illness —> short delay…long delay, mild illness outcompetes illnesses that makes you so sick you stay in bed
(DIR) Post #AFVSdHHob5FcjFq05Q by lucash_dev@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T18:41:08Z
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@drgo @lukedashjr Omicron *is* the “endemic cold” stage.We should just stop any sort of isolation, spread it more, and get over with it faster.Some 10% people I know tested positive in the past month, none got seriously ill. Most had symptoms less severe than a cold or no symptoms at all.I’m pretty sure the actual number is at least 2x the positive tests. More likely 3x or more.
(DIR) Post #AFVVsaZ3VI28j0tVFw by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T19:17:31Z
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@lucash_dev @lukedashjr omicron is almost the endemic cold stage. It’ll still kill some people on their first battle with the virus. Just not as many as delta (maybe ¼ as many…possibly much less). After everyone gets infected, those remaining will form the group in which the virus will circulate with the already slow mutation rate slowed further by few replication cycles in previously exposed people. But of course new people will be created and and they’ll get infected in childhood.
(DIR) Post #AFVXzxD1uR20tMEQEa by ThatWouldBeTelling@detroitriotcity.com
2022-01-16T19:41:16.574011Z
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@drgo @lucash_dev @lukedashjr “omicron is almost the endemic cold stage. It’ll still kill some people on their first battle with the virus. Just not as many as delta (maybe ¼ as many…possibly much less).”And possibly much more, I’ve seen a preprint which estimated 50% of Delta’s impact, but this is very hard to do and getting harder with every Omicron infection. That is, ignoring babies the pool of “naive” people with no immunity, natural and/or vaccine, is very small and getting smaller every day, but we should allow for some relatively high rates even if it’s much lower than Delta.Agree with the rest of what you have to say except on general principles I expect nature to throw us a few more curve balls. Plus it’s not like we’ve stamped out gain of function experimentation….
(DIR) Post #AFVckFyOsQNSE0itFY by lukedashjr@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T20:34:27Z
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@lucash_dev @drgo Did those people you know, have some other variant of COVID prior?
(DIR) Post #AFVdv22J8OSE8jFilM by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T20:47:32Z
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@lukedashjr @lucash_dev the amazing incuriosity regarding the effects of prior infection has everyone in medicine that I know holding their breath and hoping that omicron isn’t a big deal for first timers. Thankfully the answer appears to be yes. But I’m not an expert on this.
(DIR) Post #AFVeGiAxehxQuldbqS by lucash_dev@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T20:51:31Z
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@lukedashjr @drgo noBut most had been 2x or 3x injected or are kids
(DIR) Post #AFVedbhHuPxdTwfxjs by drgo@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-16T20:55:40Z
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@lucash_dev @lukedashjr not in South Africa where earliest data was from. 96% seroprevalence of s-protein antibodies; but only 6% vaccinated. The other 90% were previously infected. And they have a fairly young population too. But UK data is encouraging…might not be 1/1000th as bad* as delta (as SA data seems to suggest), but looks at least 1/6 as bad**bad meaning everything from kills patient to puts patient in hospital
(DIR) Post #AFYr85oMIA3MUUALzM by pox@bitcoinhackers.org
2022-01-18T09:59:46Z
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@lukedashjr I think it's a bit shorter. 3 days or something.