Post 9tIfZmAtDoWdUEvNhY by sesivany@mastodon.cloud
(DIR) More posts by sesivany@mastodon.cloud
(DIR) Post #9tHTbybURB0JBqnMps by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-22T23:39:36Z
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Simple observation. We are in #lockdown. A lot of people are/get infected with only mild or no symptoms. They are immune after the infection. Korea is starting to produce a simple, fast and cheap test for those antibodies. So in a few weeks all that are immune can return to work.
(DIR) Post #9tHTxGYyrLJkyJm0Bc by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-22T23:43:38Z
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This way we can protect those at risk while still restarting the economy. It sounds brutal, but it actually makes sense. Flatten the curve and having a growing pool of immune people that can go out again.
(DIR) Post #9tHTzVToN2m3oXQKvY by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-22T23:44:07Z
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No politician will admit that this is part of the plan, I guess. But I see no real reason to keep those that are immune in isolation. It was wrong to call it herd immunity, because that is not what I mean. I just mean that those that are immune can walk around and work
(DIR) Post #9tHUE1z8JWaogJ03hQ by grainloom@cybre.space
2020-03-22T23:46:27Z
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@jwildeboer do you have a source on the immunity thing?
(DIR) Post #9tHVZ9scFvnRCbad60 by clacke@libranet.de
2020-03-23T00:01:47Z
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@grainloom @jwildeboer It's the normal way viruses work. There is talk about covid patients being reinfected after having no detectable virus RNA left, but they are not many, and skeptics are saying faulty methodologies are more likely than actual reinfection.
(DIR) Post #9tHXDKephhuwAMrZdA by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T00:20:03Z
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@grainloom https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/sars-cov-2-how-a-patients-immune-system-defeated-the-virus-in-3-days not directly but with good hypothesis https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1746199 and opinion of leading virologists that it would be highly unusual if infected persons do NOT develop immunity
(DIR) Post #9tHXKCxKjjq0J6nMbw by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T00:21:19Z
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@grainloom and no, im no expert and never claimed to be one. My speculations are just that. Speculations.
(DIR) Post #9tHY25wiA36vJ8QmuW by clacke@libranet.de
2020-03-23T00:29:18Z
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@jwildeboer @grainloom Experts on TWiV are saying the same thing especially about health care workers: It would be great to know who has antibodies and can get back in there and not worry about being a spreader.
(DIR) Post #9tHbKGEQxORuHe4fuC by RAOF@dev.glitch.social
2020-03-23T01:06:00Z
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@jwildeboer @grainloom Whether or not we get long term immunity is rather more up in the air, but it would be very unusual if short-term immunity didn't develop.
(DIR) Post #9tHfKyPx4hxN8k3bgu by grainloom@cybre.space
2020-03-23T01:09:51Z
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@RAOF @jwildeboer Is short term immunity enough for the purposes in question?
(DIR) Post #9tHfKyuRFMLKfIJxD6 by RAOF@dev.glitch.social
2020-03-23T01:20:47Z
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@grainloom @jwildeboer I am by no means a virologist, but I strongly suspect the answer would be “yes”.I would also expect that further exposure to CORVID-19 would extend the short-term immunity.
(DIR) Post #9tI9G0gyBjgfN4ZBsu by acesabe@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T07:26:20Z
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@jwildeboer but does this "test" indicate whether you are immune to the virus as well? I've also read report of someone getting infected twice...
(DIR) Post #9tIDsD7Ops0EjPOqZ6 by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T08:18:07Z
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@acesabe That’s just how our immune system works. SARS-CoV-2 isn’t that special :) Immunity is the natural result of infection in the vast majority of cases. And wrt double infection - they are anecdotal and where they have been checked, it turned out to have been a mistaken conclusion.
(DIR) Post #9tIPJFFs6B2gflSKwq by loke@functional.cafe
2020-03-23T10:15:30Z
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@RAOFI did read an article today that suggested that it takes a while before you can reliably rest for antibodies (a few weeks?). I got this information from Swedish media which has been quite unreliable so far. @grainloom @jwildeboer
(DIR) Post #9tIPJFtDjsWAdnrlHU by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T10:26:11Z
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@loke @RAOF @grainloom In many places we are quite a few weeks in to isolation and it will take a bit before we have the tests available in volume, so seems win win to me :)
(DIR) Post #9tIPhw5sTbk2U7YTQW by loke@functional.cafe
2020-03-23T10:30:42Z
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@jwildeboerAh yes, that too. But I was referring to the time after recovery. As far as I understand it the the antibodies doesn't show up in testing until some weeks afterwards. @RAOF @grainloom
(DIR) Post #9tIPv9bPYybK95bime by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T10:33:09Z
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@loke @RAOF @grainloom A lot of the asymptomatic people have been infected weeks ago, so there should be quite a lot of people walking around with antibodies in detectable amounts already. Once we can reliably test for that, we can take them out of isolation IMHO.
(DIR) Post #9tIQOep8YtL9NJ60bg by RAOF@dev.glitch.social
2020-03-23T10:38:27Z
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@jwildeboer @loke @grainloom Maybe? There's a value in the simplicity of a “all the cafes are shut, everyone stays home” rule.Once things are a bit more stable (and we've got lots more testing resources, so we can tell) it'll be an obvious win, though.
(DIR) Post #9tIQovxHUSmI2IR0xk by clacke@libranet.de
2020-03-23T10:43:17Z
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@loke @jwildeboer @grainloom @RAOF After recovery sounds odd. It's not a reliable way to detect infection, because it takes a few days to develop antibodies (source: TWiV). But if you have fought off the infection you'd have antibodies.
(DIR) Post #9tIVBETzgYFtgaclXs by juliank@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T11:32:01Z
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@jwildeboer We can't take people out of isolation until it's a vast majority of them.We can't waste police resources on checking each person they encounter whether they are immune or not.@loke @RAOF @grainloom
(DIR) Post #9tIXMqpfdtTtidQnei by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T11:56:22Z
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@clacke @loke @grainloom @RAOF We have people that had symptoms up to three weeks ago in isolation now. When the tests for antibodies are available in two weeks, we can be reasonably sure that those with antibodies are not shedding *enough* viruses to be a spreader. The risk is justifiable IMHO but I am no expert. I’m just pointing at an obvious next step in dealing with this.
(DIR) Post #9tIfZmAtDoWdUEvNhY by sesivany@mastodon.cloud
2020-03-23T13:28:27Z
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@jwildeboer This itself doesn't solve the problem. Flattening the curve is just a "waiting" strategy. It would take years to naturally gain collective immunity without health care collapse. So the strategy is: hold it as much as you can until we have vaccination or some effective means to cure it.
(DIR) Post #9tIiWmajW0nBm0HECe by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T14:01:38Z
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@sesivany yes. But those with proven immunity should and IMHO must get out and help wherever it is needed. Which for many people might just mean to get back to work.
(DIR) Post #9tJN6pzwK7SEvioXWi by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T21:36:17Z
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@jwildeboer couldn't an immune person be a carrier, though? Through their clothes, what they touch, etc? For sure with a much much smaller impact, but still...?
(DIR) Post #9tJNsunFnVZ5hco07U by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T21:44:59Z
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@RuiSeabra that’s why keeping a distance and #washyourhands is so important. It’s all about *reducing* the risks. Not eliminating them, as that is a lot more complicated to achieve.
(DIR) Post #9tJO8Eipz8VPr22t84 by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T21:47:52Z
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@RuiSeabra that risk is very small. #WashYourHands and avoid touching others by keeping distance is a good mitigation strategy anyway.
(DIR) Post #9tJOCF40eona4VrIYq by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T21:48:32Z
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@jwildeboer of course, since a lockdown is not a workable long term measure...
(DIR) Post #9tJOpy6J916n2ssPaq by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T21:55:44Z
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@RuiSeabra oh, and obviously for that minimal risk everyone should ofcourse #WearAMask😷 anyway :)
(DIR) Post #9tJPapfWJQNKVKh3IG by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T22:04:11Z
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@jwildeboer that's a conflicting information, though, even our health authorities are warning against using masks without actual need, as they can not only give a false sense of security but also be a source of contact and transmission, if you're unaware. They recommend them for healthcare workers and known cases, one for protection, the other for reducing spread.
(DIR) Post #9tJTdpGQfmyNw0dkjQ by clacke@libranet.de
2020-03-23T22:49:35Z
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@RuiSeabra @jwildeboer I've come to the conclusion that as you don't know for sure if you have a need to protect others from yourself, it is a good thing that everyone is wearing a mask.It makes me and others feel safe on the street and in the metro when the others are wearing masks. I don't have to consider whether my fellow traveler without a mask ought to be wearing one. The masks acts as an extra meter of distance, you might say.
(DIR) Post #9tJTjxia9bHXtMjbN2 by moonman@shitposter.club
2020-03-23T22:50:49.490042Z
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@clacke >The masks acts as an extra meter of distance, you might say.yes. why don't people get this
(DIR) Post #9tJV6Jo4oFFeivWq2a by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T22:56:34Z
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@clacke @jwildeboer but is it safeness when that person will be touching the infected mask and then other spots? It is indeed a false sense of security. It's appropriate in certain contexts, but not all around.
(DIR) Post #9tJV6KGR6nw88snUFE by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:05:44Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke people wearing masks had a 70% reduction in infection risk according to research with 3000+ participants in Hong Kong during the SARS outbreak. That’s IMHO a convincing argument. Do you have research that proves that “false sense of security” leads to higher infection rates?
(DIR) Post #9tJVZKw5gpb2ck78nQ by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:11:04Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke leading or not to higher infection rates is a red herring, it may simple not avoid greatly if you're just using it all around the day without the proper care. WHO doesn't recommend doing it... https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
(DIR) Post #9tJVfMnVgIxO8QyZLU by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:12:05Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke WHO advises on that very page that everybody that sneezes or coughs should wear a mask?
(DIR) Post #9tJVjGWWwvAPpqtQTg by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:12:56Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke also, wrt my 70% claim: https://social.wildeboer.net/@jwildeboer/103837883144365567
(DIR) Post #9tJVlA61ok56TpOvYG by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:13:20Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke yeah, but you said *everyone*, not *everyone who sneezes and/or coughs*. It's quite different.
(DIR) Post #9tJVqXdXinkiwCdtWS by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:14:15Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke also on The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/can-a-face-mask-protect-me-from-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted, «However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus»
(DIR) Post #9tJVx2lGuiOHCsMG1I by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:15:21Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke my decision is clear. #WearAMask😷 And I will promote their use. Germany’s leading virologist Christian Drosten explained for half an hour in his podcast today that everybody should wear a mask. He explained why he thinks the advice against that is wrong.
(DIR) Post #9tJW1Ib7yb8lTrdsrQ by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:16:02Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke well, it's also good against face recognition cameras :D
(DIR) Post #9tJWDrFmx7wIRGeLFg by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:18:28Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke funny. The “probably” by the Guardian is more trustworthy than the research I linked to showing a 70% reduced infection risk? Well. Then. :(
(DIR) Post #9tJWJPTr7pag2VsQwC by clacke@libranet.de
2020-03-23T23:19:32Z
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@RuiSeabra @jwildeboer You don't know if you need one, until you get symptoms and you suddenly know you should have been wearing one for the last 3-5 days.
(DIR) Post #9tJWWvZ98zkPJanUWm by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:21:53Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke Also - that Guardian article again focuses on the wrong question. The mask protects OTHERS when the wearer is unknowingly spreading viruses. And that seems to be very real risk with #covid19. That asymptomatic folks walk around unknowingly spreading. And that’s where a mask definitely reduces the risk of spreading significantly. That’s my point.
(DIR) Post #9tJWgaA1aCZFp8eO24 by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:23:38Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke well, The Guardian isn't exactly The Sun, or Faux News, and it's coherent with WHO... Also... https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/2019-novel-coronavirus-myth-versus-fact
(DIR) Post #9tJWkp6vwNMhLiE8EC by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:24:24Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke and this is also some good news, if scientifically confirmed: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china
(DIR) Post #9tJWuaSpFhMCoo7eqW by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:26:07Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke “People with a respiratory illness can wear these masks to lessen their chance of infecting others.” Well, that’s kind of my point.
(DIR) Post #9tJX2bcapfTkj1VyZU by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:27:35Z
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@jwildeboer @clacke Again, you said *everyone*. You could assume a simple mistake and moved on, rather than trying to prove me wrong by pretending WHO and Hopkins defend what you said when they don't. :)
(DIR) Post #9tJXBckjzl90qAcsNc by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:29:12Z
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@RuiSeabra @clacke I gave my sources. They don’t convince you. Fine. But accusing me of being wrong just so you can feel better about your opinion - well. No.
(DIR) Post #9tJXLtiHn8fuL1NPUW by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:30:59Z
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@jwildeboer oh man... scroll down a few toots below on your own "toot list": https://social.wildeboer.net/@jwildeboer/103874595675036073 «oh, and obviously for that minimal risk everyone should ofcourse #WearAMask😷 anyway :)»
(DIR) Post #9tJXWzqvJ2NiZ2i1TM by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:33:03Z
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@jwildeboer I'm not accusing you of anything, it's a simple mistake. It doesn't make me feel better or anything, what would make me feel better is not being on a receiving end of a "holier than thee" style of messaging.
(DIR) Post #9tJYn8a6iikEDv6VPs by RuiSeabra@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T23:35:00Z
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@jwildeboer I can understand you're scared of this shit, I am as well, though more on account of the fragile people I know than for myself. we don't need to be angry at each other. Sheesh...
(DIR) Post #9tJYn8r7hSM74h45wG by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:47:12Z
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@RuiSeabra I am absolutely NOT scared of this. I am taking all the responsible actions I can take. And wearing a mask for the reasons I gave is part of that. Simple.
(DIR) Post #9tJZtoL6TglvQQpeBk by jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net
2020-03-23T23:59:34Z
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@RuiSeabra every expert agrees that masks help when people at risk of infecting OTHERS wear them. Right now there are literally thousands of infected people with no or mild symptoms, shedding viruses. You might be one of them. I might too. So out of precaution, wearing a mask makes sense. I don’t know what is wrong with that.
(DIR) Post #9tKXjnJrPU2gcEJ4OO by icedquinn@blob.cat
2020-03-24T11:10:18.642474Z
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@jwildeboer @grainloom not a doctor, but :blobcatpeek: the CDC patent for this virus' ancestor (https://patents.google.com/patent/US7220852B1/en ) says antibodies are short lived, which may be a good thing since there have been discussions elsewhere as to if there is antibody dependent entry in sars-covid-2.long-term immunity seems like it would have to be forced by something external (some vaccine) which actually might be a health risk since infection while the antibodies are present could result in the immune system *helping* the virus get in.though i haven't seen if anyone is still testing for ADEs in this case.