Post 9smNDBiAPlFaSgncx6 by sowth@freeradical.zone
(DIR) More posts by sowth@freeradical.zone
(DIR) Post #9smK0lDIo6vcwVkGtk by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-07T22:56:19Z
0 likes, 2 repeats
I wanted to address some misconceptions about the coronavirus. I'll do that in this thread.I'll address:- "The virus will disappear in spring because we're stronger when it gets warm."- "The virus isn't any worse than the flu, which kills 100x more people in total"- "The virus only affects old people, so I'm fine."Read my responses in the replies.Some of those claims have a part of truth, but the reality behind all of them is much more nuanced. It is really important to consider the full story.I hope I can help some people, sharing this post is appreciated!
(DIR) Post #9smKqnyfm9eYZciecC by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-07T23:05:42Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
-> "The virus will disappear in spring because we're stronger when it gets warm." <-Warmer temperatures will certainly help against the virus, and may make the outbreak more controllable.Still, it will not make it "disappear" like the flu. The virus is spreading in Australia, despite the fact that it is summer in the southern hemisphere.And as you may know, the coronavirus is infecting people in Iran extremely quickly. Iran has a very diverse climate, but most cases are in Tehran, its most populous city. Tehran has a warn climate, this week it is about 20°C/70°F.The warm weather will help. We can't know how much though, and it will probably not kill the virus entirely.
(DIR) Post #9smNDBiAPlFaSgncx6 by sowth@freeradical.zone
2020-03-07T23:32:08Z
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@NekoSockis it true drinking alcohol slows or kills the virus? i keep hearing that, but don't know the source.
(DIR) Post #9smOLVQX61mRsa56mm by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-07T23:44:53Z
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-> "The virus isn't any worse than the flu, which kills 100x more people in total" <-Trying to compare COVID-19 to the flu is an annoying whataboutism that needs to stop. COVID is scary because of its *potential*.It is true that so far, COVID has killed 3.5k people, whereas the flu killed 450k.Nevertheless, COVID has a 3.4% death rate (1/30 people). This may seem low, but last year, the flu had a 0.06% death rate (1/1,666 people).This means COVID is 56x times more deadly than the flu.If as many people were infected by the COVID as by the flu (800 million), we could expect over 27 million deaths.But it gets worse:First, we expect the REAL death rate of COVID to be way higher.During the SARS epidemic, there was a rough estimation the illness had a 2% death rate. Later, we realised it was actually 17%.This is because you can's just divide the number of recoveries by the number of deaths. there are a lot of people still ill, we don't know their chances of survival.(1/2)
(DIR) Post #9smOu1CLThyyGHtzmK by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-07T23:51:06Z
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But also, COVID is a LOT more infectuous than the flu.This is quantified by its basic reproductive number. In epidemiology, that is "how many people a single infected person will infect on average".The reproduction rate of the flu is 1.28, so one person with the flu infects, on average, 1.28 other people.There are a lot of estimates for COVID, ranging from 2.13 to 4.82. I think there's roughly an average of 3 among estimates.Either way, all of those estimates ARE A LOT.Remember we're working with multiplications. Even with a reproduction rate of 2, the most conservative estimate, COVID is twice as infectuous as the flu.For comparison, at its worse, Ebola never had a reproduction rate of more than 2.5. So COVID is about as infectious, or more infectious, than Ebola.Please note: reproduction rates are calculated on a per-outbreak basis and even vary depending on the location and throughout the outbreak. These are only averages.(2/2)
(DIR) Post #9smRB5PXGhFm9tL1aS by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T00:16:35Z
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- "The virus only affects old people, so I'm fine."Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from the coronavirus *for now*. Still, they'll definitely feel it, as they will probably experience the respiratory symptoms.However, young people should still worry about the virus, especially if it cannot be contained.First, no age group has a 0% death chance. Anyone may die from the virus, even if they are healthy. It is not impossible.Second, a great amount of exposition to the virus seem to escalate the mortality rates to a point where even young healthy people are at a significant risk.There has been many doctors who died from the coronavirus despite not being into the targetted age group, just because they were constantly exposed to it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/who-is-most-at-risk-of-contracting-coronavirusThis makes sense, your body cannot eternally fight against an illness.If we fail to contain the virus, it could have enough of a presence for everyone to be at risk. Unless they build a defence for it, but that would only be a minority for such a deadly virus. (That's why vaccines are a thing.)(1/2)
(DIR) Post #9smRBUQSGPqLjyxbzU by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T00:16:41Z
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And lastly, even if you never get sick from the coronavirus, it will have a profound impact on our world, and maybe on your life at the moment.The economic downturn, the chaos, potentially even quarantines, the disruption the virus will create will be huge.Even if you are not affected by the virus, thousands will be, and that is very very scary.(2/2)
(DIR) Post #9smRVlKD8sjhwchsH2 by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T00:20:19Z
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Ah and young people should still strive to protect themselves from the coronavirus, because you don't want to pass it on. Remember, one person infected with the coronavirus infects on average around 3 other people, as I previously explained.That's why it's important to close schools and all. The point is to limit the propagation of the virus *at all*, not just towards the affected age group.
(DIR) Post #9smTFxBHUhMxzS7Seu by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T00:39:53Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@sowth @Vexatos @digit This does seem to be a fake news made popular by this meme I think. (that's how I saw it personally)https://electrodealpro.com/expert-high-liquor-resists-new-coronavirus-rumors/It *could* make sense for the coronavirus to be able to be killed *on a physical surface* using alcohol. But it's not. You should use soap or disinfectant.But drinking alcohol doesn't make any sense, it would imply... it's being killed in your digestive system? What? It means you're sick anyway and should call the emergencies.So far, there is no legitimate health advice specific to the coronavirus. To avoid it, you have to avoid bacteria altogether. That implies having good hygiene practise and avoiding other people.
(DIR) Post #9smTNJZUe3gTSaxEhs by mewmew@blob.cat
2020-03-08T00:41:11.413173Z
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@NekoSock @sowth @Vexatos @digit coronavirus isn't a bacteria though... it's a virus :blobcatsipglare:
(DIR) Post #9smTRtuvSFZlLJAMXg by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T00:42:03Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@mewmew @digit @sowth @Vexatos YOU GET MY POINT :ablobcatbongo: 💢 Arguably if you avoid bacteria, you avoid viruses too anyway :beanblobcathyper:
(DIR) Post #9smTSHEuk6ENfxh9OK by 361.xj9@social.sunshinegardens.org
2020-03-08T00:42:08.607243Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@mewmew @NekoSock @Vexatos @digit @sowth bacteria virus hybrid ferry dangerous bio weapon
(DIR) Post #9smUCOEl3fsEhObtZo by digit@elekk.xyz
2020-03-08T00:50:26Z
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@NekoSock @sowth Huh. My guess was that because hand sanitizers are alcohol based and work, people thought that drinking alcohol would have the same effect. That's just. Not how viruses (or hand sanitizers) work, thoughAnd yep! Prevention is the most important part of this right now
(DIR) Post #9sn5tHJKNlqhyQ3sYa by cesese@niu.moe
2020-03-08T07:52:46Z
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@NekoSock thank you, I learned a lot :bun:
(DIR) Post #9snAutBBZYwTTuqB9c by Miaourt@nulled.red
2020-03-08T08:49:01Z
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@NekoSock
(DIR) Post #9snFdIplwyLHbeG4qu by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T09:41:57Z
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@Miaourt I cannot source everything as that would make the post too long, but I am prepared to source any information you may want to learn more about
(DIR) Post #9snFfukjwKZfmx9LV2 by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T09:42:26Z
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@Miaourt but usually you can find the source yourself there isn't anything extraordinary
(DIR) Post #9snFtaTM8eXGwbXR8S by Ste1lar@niu.moe
2020-03-08T09:44:46Z
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@cesese @NekoSock :bun:
(DIR) Post #9snGMARrySEod8TGpk by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T09:50:04Z
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As I told someone else, I wasn't able to source everything as that would make the post too long, but if you want sources and further information on any point mentioned, tell me!
(DIR) Post #9snGxCrRy0wWpM67TE by icedquinn@blob.cat
2020-03-08T09:56:47.360914Z
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@NekoSock maybe if there wasn't an artificial over-reliance on the CCP for goods production, the economic downturns would have been significantly lessened.everyones just been kicking the can down the road that the single source might ever experience a disruption and praying it didn't. now it has, and the business idiots are forced to contend with why this wasn't a good idea all this time.
(DIR) Post #9snHgFnRtqIIxkhrV2 by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T10:04:53Z
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@icedquinn The economic downturn actually didn't happen until other countries started being affected. When China was the only one affected, things went okay for some time because companies often had a bit of surplus and not everyone had factories in Wuhan to begin with.China lost a lot of GDP and all, but other countries weren't too affected. And the danger of the illness was uncertain anyway at this point.But I see what you mean and I think you have a good point.Although I don't think this specific downturn would have been avoided if we had no reliance on China, single points of failure in the economy like that are huge sources of risk.Some countries like Australia are pretty much forced to be China's BFF because of how much they rely on them. Australia didn't accept China's 5G out of laziness for instance, but rather because they couldn't say no.
(DIR) Post #9snI7HzRqtk5aJD6tE by icedquinn@blob.cat
2020-03-08T10:09:48.743093Z
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@NekoSock @Ste1lar @Miaourt i'm not concerned mostly because when i heard mike adams going on about r-nought values i made my own python simulation; it tracks the 14-day infection in buckets (because currently it incubates over 2+ weeks and spreads during thi stime with no symptoms) and ran it to do a very simple "one person, go in to bucket, slide each bucket by one every simulated day, then the final bucket moves to dead or immune" though i still assume immune persons are carriers because that's entirely possible in virology.it showed that within about 14 days the entire planet would be fully infected already, assuming nothing was done to stop initial seeding.it's been more than that amount of time since the initial outbreak in wuhan, and as i've mentioned elsewhere on blobcat, i've already seen people have and recover from bizzarely severe infections before the CDC was willing to openly admit we might be vulnerable.i don't personally believe any of the ongoing measures are going to be effective because it's already had more than enough time to spin out of control while the beurocrats dawdled over whether to do anything. now we're just going to see a lot of scared people think every sickness anyone has is the kung flu and the panic causes more damage the virus did/does.i realize that since i didn't simulate provinces and people's individual travel habits, its possible/probable that there is more lag time. adams projected a much longer period of time than i did, but i don't know how he is doing it.
(DIR) Post #9snIFxCSWEE3iAQaDw by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T10:11:21Z
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@icedquinn eh?
(DIR) Post #9snIf48NsH6mSPUoXQ by NekoSock@niu.moe
2020-03-08T10:15:53Z
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@icedquinn I assume there were some messages posted that I can't see so 🤷
(DIR) Post #9snJ5pam38ZBAsXPcG by icedquinn@blob.cat
2020-03-08T10:20:45.549131Z
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@NekoSock i'm not aware of any missing messages.i've seen toots about whether masks were effective in other threads. and toots about dismissing the severity of things in this thread. i think virtually nothing is going to be effective because i personally believe it's already peaked.but i also don't work for a university and only have third hand stats to work with so :blobcatshrug: