Post 2224268 by xahlee@mstdn.io
 (DIR) More posts by xahlee@mstdn.io
 (DIR) Post #2224267 by coveb@mstdn.io
       2018-12-23T18:10:22Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @xahlee let's see. probabilities. i should be able to do this 'cuz i sometimes do math for gaming companies. here we go!theres six ways one dice can roll, squared for a two die play is 36 outcomes, only one of which is double six. that means a 1/36 chance of a double six on each play.each subsequent play adds another chance, so after 24 there's a 2/3 likelihood one of 'em is double six. i'd still simulate to be sure, 'cuz good probability intuition is rare. remember the monty hall problem?
       
 (DIR) Post #2224268 by xahlee@mstdn.io
       2018-12-23T19:10:13Z
       
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       @coveb great answer.yeah, i remember the 3 doors 1 goat problem, made famous by the highest iq marilyn (sp?) in 1990s.
       
 (DIR) Post #2224354 by coveb@mstdn.io
       2018-12-23T19:13:39Z
       
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       @xahlee marilyn vos savant. three doors, 1 prize, 2 duds. you, the player, choose a door. before the dealer reveals, he shows you a dud behind one of the other doors, and gives you the option to switch. should you?it's either perfectly obvious to you you should, or not. the arguments went on and on. a simulation quickly refutes the nonsense "logic".
       
 (DIR) Post #2225253 by xahlee@mstdn.io
       2018-12-23T19:55:17Z
       
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       @coveb oh gawd, u deleted posts so fast. it's impossible to reply to!:)